Friday, January 24, 2014

Eye on Iran: US Eyes Difficulties in Next Round of Iran Talks








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Top Stories

AP: "Vast differences between Iran and the six-nation coalition seeking to dismantle the Islamic republic's nuclear program may lead to another short-term deal - and that could renew criticism that Iran is stalling and energize the push in Congress for tougher sanctions even if they endanger negotiations. Such a dilemma awaits the resumption of face-to-face talks set for next month... The agreement included a provision to renew the short-term accord for a period of time that would have to be agreed to by all parties... 'I think it's extremely unlikely that it will be possible to reach a comprehensive agreement in the next six months,' said Gary Samore, who until last year was Obama's top arms control adviser. 'We're in for a rolling series of extensions.' It's not clear what the U.S. and its coalition partners would do if a comprehensive agreement isn't reached in six months. U.S. officials are meeting with their counterparts in the so-called P5+1 to plot strategy for the February meetings. French Foreign Ministry spokesman Romain Nadal told The Associated Press on Thursday that the coalition's priority is to reach a big deal and do so quickly. 'We are not going to go through a succession of interim deals,' Nadal said. He added that the push in Congress for tougher sanctions against Iran 'increases the pressure.'" http://t.uani.com/1eXKlXF

CNN: "Sanctions against Iran are illegal and are undermining international law, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani said in an exclusive, wide-ranging interview with CNN's Fareed Zakaria... Rouhani insisted that Iran still had a right to peaceful nuclear technology, including enrichment, which he described as 'part and parcel of the inalienable rights of states.' 'It is part a part of our national pride, and nuclear technology has become indigenous,' he said. 'And recently, we have managed to secure very considerable prowess with regards to the fabrication of centrifuges,' he added, explaining that 'not under any circumstances' would Iran destroy any of its existing centrifuges... 'In the context of R&D and peaceful nuclear technology, we will not accept any limitations,' Rouhani told Zakaria, arguing that Iran's need for medical isotopes necessitated a heavy water reactor." http://t.uani.com/KQ2Pjb

Free Beacon: "If Iran fully complies with the requirements of a recently signed nuclear deal, its ability to build a nuclear weapon will be delayed by just one month, according to a recent analysis published by a nuclear watchdog group. Before Iran signed a temporary agreement to halt portions of its nuclear program, experts pegged its breakout time-the length of time it would take Tehran to enrich the fuel needed for a nuclear bomb-at around one to one-and-a-half months, according to a recent analysis by the group United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI). If Iran goes along with the nuclear accord and ramps down some of its nuclear work, its breakout time will be pushed back from one month to just over two, according to UANI's analysis, which cites figures from the Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS)... Iran's nuclear progress will not end there, according to UANI, which is tracking every facet of the deal on its newly launched Geneva Interim Agreement Tracker website. Iran will continue work on the Arak heavy water nuclear reactor, which could provide the country with an alternate path to a nuclear weapon. Tehran also can continue to perform advanced research and development on centrifuges and other nuclear technologies under the deal. Additionally, it will not be barred from performing tests on long-range ballistic missiles, a weapon that could carry a nuclear payload over great distances." http://t.uani.com/1cauLcI
   
Nuclear Program & Negotiations

Reuters: "The U.N. atomic agency asked member countries on Friday for more money to fund its work checking Iran complies with a deal aimed at easing a decade-long stand-off over its nuclear activities. The International Atomic Energy Agency will nearly double the number of people it has working on Iran as a result of the six-month accord, IAEA chief Yukiya Amano told an extraordinary meeting of the U.N. body's 35-nation governing board. Amano said the interim agreement - which took effect on Monday and under which Iran will get relief from some economic sanctions - was an 'important step forward towards achieving a comprehensive solution' to the nuclear dispute. But, he added: 'there is still a long way to go.'" http://t.uani.com/1g8n1vr

The Hill: "The White House on Thursday brushed off comments by Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, who, in an interview, accused the Obama administration of overstating the concessions they had gained from Tehran in a six-month nuclear deal. 'How Iranian officials characterize this for a domestic audience matters far less to us than what they're actually doing,' White House press secretary Jay Carney said Thursday." http://t.uani.com/KU5HMF

Sanctions Relief

NYT: "The Obama administration intensified efforts on Thursday to counter what officials called a misimpression that the six-month nuclear agreement with Iran had opened the door to new economic opportunities with the country, emphasizing that nearly all sanctions remained in force and warning businesses not to engage in any deals still pending after the accord's July 20 expiration. As if to punctuate the administration's assertion that little had changed, the Treasury Department announced what it described as a landmark $152 million settlement with Clearstream Banking, a Luxembourg-based banking subsidiary of Germany's Deutsche Börse securities exchange, for having allowed Iran to bypass sanctions through the use of the company's access to the American banking system. The administration has been facing increased criticism from supporters of strong sanctions against Iran who contend that the six-month deal - which went into force on Monday and was devised to allow time to negotiate a permanent accord - had given the Iranians far more in economic benefits than what its provisions had specified or intended." http://t.uani.com/19S3KM0

Reuters: "French carmaker Renault aims to get back into Iran as soon as sanctions are lifted, chief executive Carlos Ghosn said on Thursday, describing it as 'a potentially great market'... 'We consider that this is a potentially great market for the car industry and we want to be able to launch again the operation immediately when the sanctions are lifted,' Ghosn told Reuters TV on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in Davos. 'Ourselves and a lot of car manufacturers would love to contribute to the development of the Iranian market, which is already the largest market in the Middle East despite the sanctions.'" http://t.uani.com/1fbAuzN

Bloomberg: "Iran plans to offer oil companies improved terms to develop oil and natural gas fields once a trade embargo against the country is lifted, Total SA (FP) Chief Executive Officer Christophe de Margerie said. Contracts will be 'more sexy than before,' De Margerie said today in an interview at Davos with Bloomberg TV. 'They are definitely expecting the embargo to be lifted.' Europe's third-biggest oil company, which stopped work on Iran's South Pars gas field in 2009 as the U.S. tightened sanctions, has 'no specific right to restart' work on previous projects, he said. 'Our project when we left was ended.'" http://t.uani.com/1dAVYBj

AFP: "The International Monetary Fund said Thursday that it will resume annual evaluations of Iran's economy, suspended by Tehran since the organization's last mission nearly three years ago. 'There's an agreement to undertake an article IV review in Iran... There was a bit of a break in recent years,' IMF spokesman William Murray said. A mission will visit the country on January 25 for the first talks under the Article IV reviews, in which IMF officials take a critical eye to a country's economic situation and management after discussions with officials as well as businessmen, politicians and civil society groups. The IMF team then issues a report reviewing progress, shortcomings and challenges facing the economy." http://t.uani.com/1jJdpW7

Sanctions Enforcement

Reuters: "A Deutsche Boerse unit agreed to pay $152 million to settle allegations that it held some $2.8 billion in securities in the United States for the central bank of Iran, the U.S. Treasury said on Thursday. The unit, Clearstream Banking of Luxembourg, had an account with a U.S. financial institution in New York from December 2007 to June 2008 through which Iran's central bank held interest in 26 corporate and sovereign bonds, the Treasury Department said. It did not name the U.S. financial institution involved. 'Clearstream provided the government of Iran with substantial and unauthorized access to the U.S. financial system,' Adam Szubin, who leads the Treasury office that enforces U.S. sanctions, the Office of Foreign Assets Control, said in a statement. Deutsche Boerse, which had already disclosed the settlement amount in November, said on Thursday the settlement closed the probe without a formal finding that Clearstream had violated U.S. sanctions laws... Clearstream met with U.S. officials about the account in 2007 and 2008, and decided to end its business with Iranian clients, Treasury said." http://t.uani.com/1hrhgFN

Bloomberg: "Iran is exaggerating its crude oil export figures and won't be allowed to sell more than 1 million barrels a day over the next six months, U.S. officials involved in managing sanctions against the country said. Iran says it shipped 1.51 million barrels a day in November, according to figures the nation submitted to the Riyadh-based Joint Organisations Data Initiative... The Paris-based International Energy Agency, an adviser to 28 nations, estimated Jan. 21 that buyers imported about 1.07 million barrels a day from Iran in 2013. In contrast, Iran's own data show shipments fell below 1.5 million barrels a day only once in the past 17 months." http://t.uani.com/1mQjH8Y

Syria Conflict

NYT: "Secretary of State John Kerry and President Hassan Rouhani of Iran offered clashing accounts on Thursday of the civil war in Syria, and the role that Tehran is playing in the conflict. The contrasting assessments illustrated the chasm that still separates the United States and Iran on Middle East issues even as they have agreed on a temporary accord to freeze much of Iran's nuclear program... 'Iran has I.R.G.C. personnel on the ground in Syria conducting military affairs,' Mr. Kerry said, using the abbreviation for Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps. Mr. Kerry also said that Iran was the main supporter of Hezbollah, the Lebanese militia, which he asserted was 'the principal difference in the fighting that has taken place on the ground in Syria.' But the Iranian president offered an assessment that differed so radically it was difficult to imagine that he was talking about the same country. Echoing arguments used by Mr. Assad, Mr. Rouhani suggested that terrorism, not power-sharing with the opposition, was the main issue." http://t.uani.com/1mQey0E

Domestic Politics

WSJ: "Iranians on both sides of the country's political divide lauded President Hasan Rouhani's address to the Davos economic forum, welcoming his promises to shore up the economy by opening it up to international trade and investment. Reformists, conservatives and businessmen praised the speech on Thursday to the World Economic Forum. Mr. Rouhani touted the policies his government has ushered in: prudence and moderation, expanding global trade and regional ties and inviting foreign investment. The speech, carried live on Iranian television, attracted intense attention and excitement because no Iranian president has appeared at the forum of world business elites for a decade. Desperate for some economic relief from international sanctions, many Iranians saw momentum and hope for change in the very fact of his appearance there." http://t.uani.com/1bmlni0

LAT: "A technical blunder? Or the latest episode in the culture wars between Iran's hard-liners and moderates? Confusion is rife in the Iranian capital about a recent showing of musical instruments on Iranian state television that broke a three-decade taboo. Last weekend, Iran's Channel One aired a live concert by a group of musicians playing traditional instruments on a show called 'Good Morning Iran.' Some Shia Muslim clerics say that broadcasting music clashes with religious tenets. So in Iran, a country with a long history of both religious and secular music, the state broadcaster has come up with a somewhat convoluted solution. When it airs performances of traditional Iranian music for a domestic audience, singers are allowed in front of the cameras, but musical instruments are absent from the screen. When musicians play, Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting (IRIB) shows shots of the studio or pastoral scenes, such as waterfalls, birds and mountains. So the episode in which instruments were shown caused a minor sensation in the Islamic Republic." http://t.uani.com/1mQmnU1

Opinion & Analysis 
 

Jeffrey Goldberg in Bloomberg:
"Perhaps it's the altitude. Maybe it's the rich food -- or the rich people. Or maybe the word for chutzpah in Farsi is 'Davos.' For whatever reason, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani and his foreign minister, Mohammad Javad Zarif, have been putting on a brass-neck display this week in Switzerland -- and Rouhani's speech today at the World Economic Forum was no exception. Rouhani and Zarif are busy trying, with intermittent success, to beguile the West into submission. (They've left the executions of Kurdish activists, the suppression of the Baha'i and the imprisonment of Christian pastors for the to-do lists of other senior Iranian officials.) In the course of the latest iteration of their charm offensive, they've made some inadvertently hilarious statements. My favorite might be this tweet yesterday that came from Rouhani's account (which is apparently managed by aides): 'Terrorism will come back to haunt those who sponsor it.If a govt thinks it can topple another govt by supporting terrorists, it's 100% wrong.' This is from the president of a country that sits on the U.S. State Department's list of state sponsors of terrorism, and that supplies skilled terrorists, financing and arms to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, who has turned Syria into hell itself. Iran also funds and supplies a Lebanese militia, Hezbollah, that murders its political rivals and is responsible for terrorist acts around the globe. A comment nearly as audacious came from Zarif, who made this statement to CNN's Jim Sciutto yesterday: 'Why don't we allow the Syrians to talk about how they can conduct a free and fair election? Why do people need to set an agenda and impose their agenda on the Syrian people?' Zarif is the foreign minister of a country ruled by an unelected 'supreme leader,' talking about an Iranian client, Assad, who uses Iranian-supplied arms to kill political dissidents. Another candidate for most galling statement made by an Iranian leader comes from Rouhani's Twitter account last week: 'Our relationship w/ the world is based on Iranian nation's interests. In #Geneva agreement world powers surrendered to Iranian nation's will.' This tweet was deleted by unknown hands -- it was probably seen as a bit too pushy (or a bit too close to the truth) by the Iranian foreign ministry... Rouhani, in his speech, made another assertion that could be characterized fairly as both bold and misleading: 'I strongly and clearly state that nuclear weapons have no place in our security strategy, and Iran has no motivation to move in that direction.' Iran has spent billions of dollars in its pursuit of nuclear weapons technology, and in pursuit of the kind of highly enriched uranium that has only one purpose. It has suffered the loss of billions more because of sanctions designed to prevent it from reaching the nuclear weapons threshold. But facts be damned: There's a charm offensive to be waged. And Davos is quite apparently ready to be charmed." http://t.uani.com/1dUvzED

Eye on Iran is a periodic news summary from United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) a program of the American Coalition Against Nuclear Iran, Inc., a tax-exempt organization under Section 501(c)(3) of the Internal Revenue Code. Eye on Iran is not intended as a comprehensive media clips summary but rather a selection of media elements with discreet analysis in a PDA friendly format. For more information please email Press@UnitedAgainstNuclearIran.com

United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) is a non-partisan, broad-based coalition that is united in a commitment to prevent Iran from fulfilling its ambition to become a regional super-power possessing nuclear weapons.  UANI is an issue-based coalition in which each coalition member will have its own interests as well as the collective goal of advancing an Iran free of nuclear weapons.

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