Can the Dubai Model Inspire Arabs?
[N.B.: AT title: "Will Dubai's Good Times
Last?"]
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DUBAI – At a time of civil war, anarchy, extremism, and impoverishment
in the Middle East, the city-states of Dubai and Abu Dhabi stand out as
the places where Arabic speakers are flourishing, innovating, and
offering a model for moving forward.
But can it last? I recently visited the United Arab Emirates to seek
answers.
To begin with, some basic facts: Once called the Trucial States by
British imperialists, the UAE consists of seven small monarchies
bordering the Persian Gulf. They banded together in 1971, as the British
retreated, to form a single federation.
The country has been doubly blessed: oil and gas abundance along with
a smart and commercially-minded group of leaders. The former gives the
country immense resources, the latter keeps it out of harm's way, free of
ideological extremism, with a focus on the economy. The result looks and
feels like a basically happy place, especially as the lot of immigrant
laborers is improving.
To me, perhaps the UAE's most noteworthy feature is the entrepôt
quality of Dubai, which resembles a Middle Eastern version of Hong Kong.
I was also impressed by the innovative religious spirit (where else does
one find prayer rooms separated by gender?) and the cultural playfulness
(building condos that resemble Yemeni-style
high-rises, wearing traditional clothing one day and Western style
the next).
But count the ways the country stands vulnerable:
Demographics: Due to phenomenal growth in immigration, the UAE
population has a doubled to nearly 10 million in about nine years, making
it much
larger than neighboring states such as Oman and Kuwait. Only about
one of nine residents are nationals; the other eight are expatriates,
with 55
percent coming from South Asia. While currently quiescent, one can
imagine their discontent and rebelliousness should the good times end.
Economy: Thanks to fracking, the Chinese economic slow-down,
and other factors, UAE oil revenue has gone down from US$75 billion to
$48 billion since 2010. Even in a country with about a trillion U.S.
dollars of reserves, this trend causes pain, especially if it continues
for many years.
Environmental: Dubai has the amazing statistic of desalinating
98.8 percent of its water even as the UAE has the highest
per-capita consumption of water in the world. Obviously, this makes
the country extraordinarily susceptible to hydrological crisis.
Regional: Nestled about 400 miles from Iraq, 100 miles from Iran,
and sharing a border with Saudi Arabia, UAE could be invaded, occupied,
and annexed as readily as Kuwait was by Saddam Hussein's Iraq 25 years
ago. Not to be forgotten: on the eve of independence in 1971, the shah of
Iran seized three UAE islands.
Sunni Islamism: Although the authorities have firmly kept
domestic extremists under control, they remain in place, biding their
time, waiting for an opportunity to lash out.
 Intensely aware of
these dangers, the rulers have adopted two intelligent strategies. One
links the country to the outside world via sports events (I was in town
during a Formula
1 car race), cultural
connections (I attended a talk at New
York University's Abu Dhabi campus), tourism (see my
selfie atop the world's highest building), and international
organizations (the International Renewable Energy Agency, or IRENA,
recently opened its doors in Abu Dhabi). In combination, these activities
send a signal that the UAE is not just a spoiled, self-indulgent artifice
but a place with aspirations to contribute as well as consume, that it
deserves support.
The second is to master the fine art of compromise. In foreign policy,
this means not adopting the Saudis' total anti-Iran focus or the
Egyptians' total anti-Muslim Brotherhood focus, but balancing the two. It
also means accepting an Israeli
mission to IRENA but insisting on it not having a larger
significance.
In domestic policy, compromise means allowing liquor
stores to function but hiding them away under false names and
requiring a permit from the police to purchase booze. It also means signs in
hotels that permit bikinis but prohibit public displays of affection.
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Once you can find it,
this Abu Dhabi liquor store, High Spirits, is well stocked.
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At a time of civil wars in Libya, Yemen, Syria, and Iraq, of Islamist
rule in Turkey and Iran, and of looming catastrophe in Egypt, Jordan, and
Pakistan, the small, privileged emirates offer a way forward based on
globalization and compromise. Will others pay them heed? Will they
survive the many dangers ahead?
I hope so, for the UAE offers a path ahead to a region badly needing
just that.
Mr. Pipes (DanielPipes.org, @DanielPipes) is president of the
Middle East Forum. © 2015 by Daniel Pipes. All rights reserved.
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