Tuesday, December 29, 2015

Eye on Iran: Iran Hands Over Stockpile of Enriched Uranium to Russia






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NYT: "A Russian ship left Iran on Monday carrying almost all of Iran's stockpile of low-enriched uranium, fulfilling a major step in the nuclear deal struck last summer and, for the first time in nearly a decade, apparently leaving Iran with too little fuel to manufacture a nuclear weapon. The shipment was announced by Secretary of State John Kerry and confirmed by a spokesman for Russia's civilian nuclear company, Rosatom. Mr. Kerry called it 'one of the most significant steps Iran has taken toward fulfilling its commitment,' and American officials say that it may be only weeks before the deal reached in July takes effect... Mr. Kerry, in a statement, said the ship, which Russian officials said was the Mikhail Dudin, carried 25,000 pounds of nuclear material. That included, Mr. Kerry said, the fuel that was closest to bomb-grade quality: It had been enriched to 20 percent purity... For face-saving purposes, Iran is calling the uranium shipment part of a 'fuel swap.' But the fuel it is receiving, partly from Kazakhstan, is natural uranium, which would require substantial processing to be used for either a nuclear reactor or a weapon. Mr. Kerry's statement said that with the removal of the fuel, Iran's 'breakout time' - the time needed to produce a weapon - had already moved from two to three months to six to nine months. Before the deal goes into effect, that time is supposed to extend to a full year." http://t.uani.com/1YLMAbP

AFP: "Iran said Tuesday it had entered the final days of completing its commitments under a landmark international deal to curb its atomic program after it shipped low-enriched uranium to Russia... Monday's shipment was part of an exchange under which Iran received natural uranium from Russia and Kazakhstan to be used in nuclear reactors for future energy production. Behrouz Kamalvandi, spokesman for Iran's atomic energy agency, said on Tuesday that Iran had received around 200 tons of yellow cake, a powder obtained in an intermediate step in the processing of natural uranium ore. The exchange was one of three major measures Iran had to take to fulfill its end of the nuclear deal, after the International Atomic Energy Agency earlier this month closed its file on possible past military dimensions of Tehran's nuclear program. The other two steps are ensuring a dramatic cut to Tehran's number of functional centrifuges - fast-spinning machines used to enrich uranium - and replacing the core of a reactor at its Arak nuclear facility. Kamalvandi said 'Implementation Day' when almost a decade of nuclear-related sanctions on Iran will be lifted was now near. 'We can say that everything is set for the final step, which is removing the core part (of the Arak reactor)' and replacing it with a new one, he said. 'An agreement has been signed and preparations have been done. If we can finish the few minor things in the coming days, everything will be completed.'" http://t.uani.com/1SkMsLp

The Hill: "The Senate is heading toward round two in the fight over the Iran nuclear deal. Senators are considering extending a package of sanctions against Tehran set to expire next year. The sanctions law-known as the Iran Sanctions Act-includes provisions targeting Iran's nuclear program, as well as ballistic missies and the country's energy sector. 'I think it's likely that Congress will act on it sometime next year,' Sen. Ben Cardin (D-Md.), the ranking member of the Foreign Relations Committee, told The Hill before lawmakers left for the holiday recess. He said senators suggested during a December briefing that they were looking at an extension as early as January or February, trying to get Stephen Mull, Obama's point person on the deal, to weigh in on the potential timeline. Sen. Chris Coons (D-Del.) said earlier this month during a Foreign Relations hearing that 'in January many members of Congress will call for the swift renewal' of the sanctions law. But that timing could coincide with the deal's 'implementation day,' potentially putting the administration in the awkward position of trying to lift sanctions against Iran just as lawmakers try to extend them. Supporters of extending the sanctions law say it's needed so the administration, or future administrations, has the ability to 'snap back' sanctions into place if Iran violates the nuclear deal. They argue that a pair of recent missile tests-which have frustrated lawmakers in both parties-underscores the worry that Iran will try to cheat on the nuclear agreement. They are pressing Obama to send a clear message that he's prepared to hold Tehran accountable, including leaving the sanctions law on the table. 'How you respond to this challenge will send a message to the Iranian regime about its compliance with the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action,' Sen. Robert Menendez (D-N.J.) wrote in a letter to Obama this month... He also urged the president to publicly support legislation he drafted with Sen. Mark Kirk (R-Ill.) that would provide for a 10-year extension of the Iran Sanctions Act. That proposal, which is backed by Sens. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) and Ted Cruz (R-Texas), two presidential contenders, has languished in the Banking Committee. Sen. Richard Shelby (R-Ala.), the committee chairman, however, suggested he backs extending the sanctions. 'Anything to tighten up on Iran, the behavior that they have exhibited and will exhibit in the future, they're on the right track,' he said ahead of the recess." http://t.uani.com/1mo5HHc

Nuclear Program & Agreement

AP: "Norway says it has helped verify a shipment of 60 tons of raw uranium to Iran as part of an international deal on Tehran's nuclear program. The Foreign Ministry said Tuesday that experts from the Norwegian Radiation Protection Authority 'verified and controlled the transportation' of the uranium from Kazakhstan to Iran on Dec. 27. Iran is receiving raw uranium in exchange for sending most of its low-enriched uranium to Russia under the July 14 nuclear agreement." http://t.uani.com/1MEXDHt

U.S.-Iran Relations

Tasnim (Iran): "Supreme Leader of the Islamic Revolution Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei highlighted the US deep hostility towards Islam, saying American officials favor division between the Shiite and Sunni Muslims contrary to their remarks. 'The incumbent US officials are against Islam in essence, and contrary to the remarks they make, they are after creating discord among Muslims,' Ayatollah Khamenei said on Tuesday, in a gathering of Iranian officials, ambassadors of Islamic countries, and participants at the Islamic Unity Conference in Tehran... The Leader explained that a clue to US push for Muslim disunity is creation of the terrorist groups, such as Daesh (also known as ISIL), which have come into being with the financial and political supports of those allied with the US. There is no difference between Shiites and Sunnis in the eyes of Americans, Imam Khamenei stressed, saying the US opposes 'any Muslim that wants to live on the basis of Islamic rules and strive for it.' ... The main objective of the arrogant front is to incite internal wars among Muslims and destroy infrastructures of the Muslim states, like Syria, Yemen and Libya, the Supreme Leader warned." http://t.uani.com/1Uf0gFH

RFE/RL: "More than 160 Iranian lawmakers have signed a draft bill demanding compensation from the United States for 'damages' it has allegedly 'inflicted on Iran.' The legislation calls on the Iranian government to take measures to obtain compensation from the United States for its alleged role in 11 cases, including the 1953 coup orchestrated by the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) that restored monarch Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi's regime. The bill also calls for compensation for 'more than 223,000 Iranians [killed] and 600,000 injured' in the 1980-1988 war with Iraq 'due to intelligence, political, and military cooperation' with Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein. It also seeks damages over the death of several hundreds of Iranians in clashes between Iranian pilgrims and Saudi forces in Mecca in 1987, and in the Hajj stampede in October 'due to America's support for the Saudi government.' Ahmad Shohani, a member of the parliament's National Security and Foreign Policy Committee, called the legislation a reaction to the United States' 'hostile policies,' including the assassination of Iranian nuclear scientists, which the bill claims were conducted with 'America's assistance.' A total of 166 lawmakers have signed the bill, 'and the number of signatories is increasing,' Shohani said. He added that it will be submitted to the parliament after the gathering of signatures has been completed." http://t.uani.com/1OwHAmG

Fars (Iran): "Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesman Hossein Jaber Ansari underlined that despite endorsement of the nuclear agreement, no measurable change is witnessed in the relations between Tehran and Washington. 'No fundamental and principled change has been made in the strategic atmosphere dominating (the interactions between) Iran and the US and it is a fact that we in Iran and the Americans agree,' Jaber Ansari told reporters in his weekly press conference in Tehran on Monday. He blasted a secret budget bill approved by the US Congress to support the Iranian government's overthrow, and advised the Americans not to repeat the same old mistakes against Iran. 'Interaction with the Iranian nation and the Islamic Republic of Iran which is a government based on a big popular revolution and the great Iranian nation's power and choice is not possible but through mutual respect and accepting Iran's national sovereignty,' Jaber Ansari said." http://t.uani.com/1kpZw46

Congressional Action

The Hill: "Senate Republicans want to block President Obama from lifting sanctions against Iran over lingering concerns about possible military dimensions of the country's nuclear program. Sen. Kelly Ayotte (R-N.H.) has introduced legislation that would block lifting sanctions until after the administration handed over a wide-ranging report on military aspects of Iran's nuclear program and certified to Congress that any military-related activity tied to the program has ended. The legislation - which is currently backed by 10 Republican senators including Sen. Marco Rubio (Fla.) - would also require Congress to pass a joint resolution approving the sanctions relief. The proposal comes as the administration is preparing to lift sanctions against Iran as part of a deal on its nuclear program as early as January. The agreement was opposed by every Senate Republican. As part of a possible military dimension to Iran's nuclear program, Ayotte's proposal would also require that that the administration certify that Iran has ended any 'research, development, testing, or fielding' of ballistic missiles that could carry a nuclear weapon... Ayotte spearheaded a letter earlier this month, which was signed by 34 of her Republican colleagues, saying that the administration shouldn't lift sanctions against Iran in the wake of the tests. Meanwhile, 21 Senate Democrats are pushing Obama to act unilaterally or with European allies if the United Nations Security Council fails to reach an agreement on responding to Iran." http://t.uani.com/1R5JcSX

Sanctions Relief

Financial Tribune (Iran): "The German Euler Hermes credit institution has agreed to establish a $5 billion credit line for Iran, Mohammad Khazai deputy minister of economy said Saturday. The credit is to be granted over 2-3 years. Hermes had previously guaranteed some loans for Iran but the country was unable to meet its commitments due to the international sanctions and lack of access to SWIFT interbank messaging service. 'We have agreed to pay Hermes over $500 million over the course of one year as soon as the economic sanctions are eased,' Khazai told Fars News Agency... 'We have held some preliminary talks with EKF, Denmark's official export credit agency, the Italian SACE group, the German Euler Hermes and the UK's Export Finance to prepare the grounds for persuading international banks and lending institutions to grant credit to and establish credit lines for Iran.'" http://t.uani.com/1R5QQNh

Press TV (Iran): "Iran's media said on 27 December that the Anglo-Dutch energy giant Shell plans to repay a major debt of $3 billion to Iran in the near future. Mohammad Khazaei, Iran's deputy finance minister and the president of the Organization for Investment Economic and Technical Assistance of Iran, has said that he has raised the issue of Shell's debt to Iran in a meeting with officials from UK's Treasury. 'Based on the remarks by officials from UK's Treasury, Shell's debts will be paid to Iran as soon as the sanctions against the country are lifted,' Khazaei has been quoted as saying by the Persian-language newspaper Iran. The company had announced earlier in August that it will repay a debt worth $2 billion to the National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC) when sanctions against the country are lifted. It had also said that it will consider investing in the Iranian energy sector in a post-sanctions era. Shell's outstanding debt to Iran is a result of Iranian oil deliveries which it had been unable to reimburse as a result of the sanctions." http://t.uani.com/1mgjv77

Mehr (Iran): "North Azadegan development project manager has announced that China's CNPC will carry out the development project for the oilfield's second phase. Keramat Behbahani referred to the selection of contractor for the oilfield's development project adding 'according to a reached agreement, China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) will develop the second phase of the field.'" http://t.uani.com/1OqSHXM

IRNA (Iran): "National Iranian Drilling Company (NIDC) has signed a memorandum of understanding with the subsidiaries of the Italian Company ENI which will be implemented following removal of sanctions. NIDC Vice-President Mohammad-Reza Takayedi said Saturday on the sidelines of a Home-Made Oil Equipment Exhibition that the company should drill 40 wells in South Azadegan oilfield, of which 25 have already been completed. The project will be delivered to National Iranian Oil Company in the second half of the next Iranian year (to start on March 21) to start production phase, he said." http://t.uani.com/1OqSNyK

Deutsche Welle: "German companies look forward to the end of economic sanctions on Iran, which used to be an important trading partner. One family-owned firm specializing in extraction technology invited potential business partners from Iran to visit their company in southern Germany." http://t.uani.com/1R5Q9na

Plastic News: "Ten years ago, half of the imported plastics and rubber machines sold in Iran came from Germany. Today, after years of punishing and isolating sanctions over Iran's nuclear programs, it's virtually zero. But with those sanctions looking like they will lift in early 2016, Germany's machinery industry, like many, is keenly interested in getting back through that door. With that in mind, the German plastics and rubber machinery trade association VDMA held its Iran German Plast 2015 conference in Tehran Dec. 7-8. VDMA said 500 people attended, the majority from Iranian plastics processing companies. 'Iran used to be one of the top sales destinations for German machinery,' said Thorsten Kühmann, managing director of VDMA's plastic and rubber machinery committee, in comments that VDMA prepared for the Tehran conference and that it shared with Plastics News... Some sectors, like extrusion machinery, saw a big increase in Chinese and Turkish machinery after the sanctions started to bite. China also did well exporting injection molding machines. 'Chinese injection molding machinery producers have gained market share in Iran dramatically, especially this year,' said Engel CEO Peter Neumann. 'It has something to do with financing: Iran is the main supplier of crude oil for China and there is an instrument applied on using export of crude oil to finance purchase of machines.' He noted Engel maintained its services organization in Iran with a local partner during the sanctions." http://t.uani.com/1OiPZId

Opinion & Analysis

William McGurn in WSJ: "On Thursday night as the ball drops in Times Square, millions of Americans watching on TV will join the revelers in Manhattan to celebrate the new year. For other Americans, alas, the arrival of Jan. 1 will mark only the beginning of another year behind Iranian bars. It's long past time to bring these men home. At last year's White House welcome for Bowe Bergdahl-the soldier who walked away from his combat post in Afghanistan and will soon be tried for desertion and misbehavior before the enemy-President Obama did manage to refer to other Americans 'unjustly detained abroad' who also 'deserve to be reunited with their families.' So what has happened since? Last summer, scarcely a year after that Rose Garden ceremony, Secretary of State John Kerry announced a nuclear deal with Tehran. The agreement puts the Iranians on a path to a bomb and releases billions of dollars that had been frozen by sanctions. But no American walked free. When asked on MSNBC's 'Morning Joe' about these prisoners, Mr. Kerry answered this way: 'There was not a meeting that took place, not one meeting that took place-believe me, that's not an exaggeration-where we did not raise the issue of our American citizens being held.' Mr. Kerry is oblivious to the obvious: If what he says is true, it only confirms his impotence. Back when the nukes deal was being negotiated, the idea was that an agreement would clear the way for these Americans to be freed. That hasn't happened, and it hasn't happened because the Iranians are not stupid. As Commentary's Jonathan Tobin noted recently, 'Each American prisoner makes Iran that much more confident that nothing it does will tempt Obama to stop the deal.' This helps explain why Iran in October convicted a Washington Post reporter of bogus espionage charges, after the deal was reached. Indeed, that same month Iran arrested an Iranian-American businessman named Siamak Namazi. The reporter's name is Jason Rezaian, and he has been held captive for more than 500 days since his arrest. A year ago, Mr. Kerry released a statement saying he was 'personally dismayed and disturbed' by the charges against Mr. Rezaian. Unfortunately, Mr. Kerry's personal dismay hasn't disturbed the Iranians. Robert Levinson is another story. The former FBI agent disappeared in Iran in 2007 while on a half-baked CIA mission. The Iranians say they don't know what happened to Mr. Levinson, the father of seven. At one point he was written off as dead, until photos surfaced showing him alive. And now Mr. Kerry expects a regime that won't come clean about Mr. Levinson to be forthcoming about its nuclear program? Amir Hekmati is an American-born Marine veteran arrested in Iran in 2011 while visiting his grandmother. He has kept up the fight from prison, at one point smuggling out a letter in which he said that a televised confession he'd made had been done under duress-and asked Mr. Kerry to reject any overture from Tehran to trade him for Iranian operatives held in the U.S. Saeed Abedini is another detained Iranian-American and a convert to Christianity. Though Iran claims to respect the right of Christian worship, Christians are harassed and Mr. Abedini was arrested when he returned to Iran to build an orphanage. Such are the menaces to Iran these days. He has been in jail since 2012. It's important to repeat these names-loudly, frequently and in public. The reason is that such Americans have no natural constituency pleading for them, outside of their families and the occasional congressman... The only real protection for our vulnerable citizens abroad is this: The certainty among bad guys that they will pay a swift and severe price for molesting an American citizen. In the first Iranian hostage crisis, Jimmy Carter at least made Iran pay by banning Iranian imports and freezing its assets. In this new hostage crisis, by contrast, the Americans held prisoner are paying off for Iran, not only by making it harder for Mr. Obama to punish any Iranian cheating on the nuclear deal but in the regime's access to tens of billions in unfrozen assets. Why should Iran change a winning hand?" http://t.uani.com/1mgopRB

J. Matthew McInnis in TNI: "Congressional leaders are angry at the lack response by the White House to Iran's provocative October 11 medium range ballistic missile test. The United Nations determined the launch was a violation of Security Council resolutions, just days before the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) on Iran's nuclear program was adopted by Tehran and the world powers. U.S. Senator Bob Corker has accused the Obama administration of being unwilling to punish Tehran for fear of undermining the nuclear deal or 'empowering hardliners' before critical domestic elections in February. But can the United States really have that kind of impact on Iranian politics? The short answer is no. Ever since the 1979 Islamic Revolution, U.S. leaders have looked for ways to influence perceived factions of the Iranian government, with little if any success. The Iran-Contra Affair in the 1980s to free American hostages in Lebanon was driven in part by the Reagan administration's belief that there were moderate politicians in Tehran open to rapprochement with the United States. President Clinton's secret outreach to reformist President Mohammad Khatami in the late 1990s foundered when Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) strongly objected to Khatami accepting the overture. President Obama, perhaps learning from these experiences, focused on communicating with Khamenei directly rather than through hardline President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad or rival factions within the regime. This philosophy likely underpinned the White House's tepid response to the Green Movement after Ahmadinejad's contested reelection in 2009. No doubt fearing public U.S. support for the protestors would anger the Supreme Leader and fuel hardliners, the president issued only a few strongly worded statements. The approach did not show results, however, until Khamenei finally demonstrated interest in getting out from the crippling nuclear sanctions imposed in 2012. Regardless of Obama's caution, change ultimately had to come from within. The election of President Hassan Rouhani in 2013 and the beginning of the nuclear talks reignited Washington's impulse to navigate Tehran's complex internal politics. It became almost conventional wisdom in the West-partly fueled by Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif's own comments to the media-that the Supreme Leader had Rouhani on a very short leash to reach a nuclear accord, and that the IRGC and other hardliners were poised to sabotage him if he made too many concessions at the negotiating table. American and European diplomats, always wary of pushing too far, felt they needed to walk a tightrope with their Iranian counterparts. Tehran's commitment to finding a nuclear deal was never that fragile, though. (This perception was likely generated by Tehran as a negotiating tactic to minimize U.S. and European pressure to make more significant concessions.) The Supreme Leader constantly expressed his doubts about the trustworthiness of the U.S. side, but he showed consistent support for Zarif's efforts throughout the process. Khamenei and Rouhani also share a long history and strong bond. Whatever qualms the IRGC leadership may have had about a deal never materialized as a serious sticking point... This does not mean that the United States has nothing at stake in the current debates and maneuvers in Tehran. On the contrary, the elections in February will have a potentially huge influence on Iran's future direction. The vote will not only determine a new Parliament (which could significantly strengthen the moderate camp), but also select a new Assembly of Experts, the body that will choose Khamenei's successor. Various factions will almost certainly use Iran's post-deal relationship with the West as a political football. But any impact on the elections from U.S. actions-whether conciliatory or punitive-will be dwarfed by the real factors currently driving Iranian politics: expectations of economic improvement and reform, anti-corruption sentiment, fears of cultural infiltration and social subversion from the West, positioning for the post-Khamenei era, along with-as always-raw ambition and ego. The bottom line is that Washington should be neither spooked nor enamored by the possibility of affecting real or perceived factional contests in Tehran. Instead, the United States should recognize that Iranian foreign policy is fairly coherent and consistent. The recent report from the International Crisis Group on Iran after the nuclear deal perhaps puts it best: 'Though the Iranian polity is anything but unitary, the West should treat it as such and avoid taking sides in an internal debate that outside actors repeatedly have proven unable to manipulate successfully.' It is hubris to think otherwise." http://t.uani.com/1ZzxDGR
       

Eye on Iran is a periodic news summary from United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) a program of the American Coalition Against Nuclear Iran, Inc., a tax-exempt organization under Section 501(c)(3) of the Internal Revenue Code. Eye on Iran is not intended as a comprehensive media clips summary but rather a selection of media elements with discreet analysis in a PDA friendly format. For more information please email Press@UnitedAgainstNuclearIran.com

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