Monday, December 28, 2015

Eye on Iran: Americans Held Hostage in Iran Win Compensation 36 Years Later






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NYT: "After spending 444 days in captivity, and more than 30 years seeking restitution, the Americans taken hostage at the United States Embassy in Tehran in 1979 have finally won compensation. Buried in the huge spending bill signed into law last Friday are provisions that would give each of the 53 hostages or their estates up to $4.4 million. Victims of other state-sponsored terrorist attacks such as the 1998 American Embassy bombings in East Africa would also be eligible for benefits under the law. 'I had to pull over to the side of the road, and I basically cried,' said Rodney V. Sickmann, who was a Marine sergeant working as a guard at the embassy in Tehran when he was seized along with the other Americans by a mob that overran the compound on Nov. 4, 1979. 'It has been 36 years, one month, 14 days, obviously, until President Obama signed the actual bill, until Iran was held accountable,' he said. The law now stands to bring closure to an episode that riveted the nation and ruptured America's ties with Iran. The very agreement that won the hostages' release in 1981 barred them from seeking restitution. Their legal claims were repeatedly blocked in the courts, including an appeal denied by the Supreme Court. Congress tried but failed to pass laws granting them relief. But this year, vindication came in a decision that forced the Paris-based bank BNP Paribas to pay a $9 billion penalty for violating sanctions against Iran, Sudan and Cuba. Some of that money was suddenly available for victims of state-sponsored terrorism. Congress was also motivated by many members' anger over the Iran nuclear accord. Some of the hostages were subject to physical and psychological torture during their long ordeal, and many regarded the thaw as frustrating and premature... The law authorizes payments of up to $10,000 per day of captivity for each of the 53 hostages, 37 of whom are still alive... Mr. Sickmann said that he would have preferred that Iran pay compensation directly, as Libya did for victims of the bombing of Pan Am Flight 103 over Lockerbie, Scotland, but that he did not expect an apology from Iran. 'I don't believe that they will ever, ever apologize,' he said. 'They don't believe that they did anything wrong.'" http://t.uani.com/1PslleF

WSJ: "Ahead of an expected lifting of sanctions, several U.S. corporate giants including personal-computer seller HP Inc. and General Electric Inc.'s oil-services unit are actively exploring a market entry into Iran... On the nuclear agreement's 'implementation day,' the U.S. Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control will issue a general license authorizing foreign-based arms of U.S. corporations to engage in activities involving Iran, a U.S. official said. Worried they could be left behind their European and Asian peers in the race to do business with a country of over 77 million people, some American companies have prepared to go as soon as the sanctions lift, drafting contracts and sending envoys to Iran as the country gets set to break decades of isolation. 'Major U.S. companies do not seem worried anymore with covering their tracks in Iran, suggesting a high degree of confidence in the end of the embargo,' said Denis Florin, head of Paris-based energy consultancy Lavoisier Conseil, who advises foreign companies seeking to enter the Islamic Republic. But with sanctions slated to end soon, looking at Iranian opportunities is no longer as politically charged as it used to be, he said... U.S. companies have been consulting with the State Department and Treasury to ensure conversations held by their non-American subsidiaries remain compliant, according to a U.S. State Department official and other people familiar with the matter. 'People are exchanging draft contracts but nothing has been signed,' the U.S. official said. As a result, U.S. companies are sending non-American subsidiaries to test the waters. In one recent example, Hewlett-Packard (Suisse) Sarl, the Swiss subsidiary of Palo Alto, Calif.-based HP, last month circulated draft agreements with Iranian distributors to resell its consumer products, such as tablets and laptops, in Tehran, according to people familiar with the prospective contracts. Non-U.S. HP staffers met the potential distributors in Dubai and Tehran, and last month held an internal meeting to discuss the opportunity, the people said... Earlier this year, Lenovo Group Ltd., the world's largest PC maker by volume, said it was exploring Iranian opportunities and invited dozens of Iranian retailers to an event at a plush Tehran hotel to drum up interest for its latest laptops... Last year, Apple Inc. started contacts with Iranian distributors about possibly entering the country with the full gamut of its business activities, including selling its iPhones, desktop computers, laptops and even opening Apple stores, should Western sanctions ease sufficiently... Other U.S.-registered companies are testing the waters. A spokesman for international oil-services giant Schlumberger Ltd., based and registered in Houston, Paris, London and The Hague, said its representatives attended a conference in Tehran where oil contracts were presented last month... Representatives from Nuovo Pignone, an Italian oil and gas subsidiary of GE, visited Iran last month as part of an Italian government delegation to the country, said a spokeswoman for the U.S. industrial-equipment maker, which is based in Fairfield, Conn." http://t.uani.com/1VmkvCz

NYT: "Tensions mounted between Iran and the United States on Wednesday over a new American law that limits visa-free travel, which the Iranians regard as a sanction and a violation of the recently completed nuclear accord... In a letter on Saturday, the day after President Obama signed the law, Secretary of State John Kerry sought to reassure his Iranian counterpart, Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, that the administration would use executive authority to waive the provision if necessary. But five congressional Republicans who strongly supported the new law delivered a sharp rejoinder to Mr. Kerry in their own letter on Wednesday. 'We are deeply concerned that the narrowly intended use of the waiver authority will be ignored in favor of applying the waiver authority to those who have traveled to Iran for business purposes,' read the letter, addressed to Mr. Kerry and Jeh Johnson, the secretary of Homeland Security. 'Congress and the president strengthened the V.W.P. in order to protect the national security of the United States,' they wrote, using the initials of the visa waiver program. 'Iran is impacted by this new law because it is a U.S.-designated state sponsor of terrorism. The simplest way to eliminate this restriction is for Iran to end its support of terrorism.' They urged Mr. Kerry to 'press Tehran on this, as well as its recent missile tests and persistent jailing of Americans. The problem is with Iranian actions, not the new visa waiver law.' The letter was signed by Representative Ed Royce of California, the chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee; the House majority leader, Kevin McCarthy of California; Representative Bob Goodlatte of Virginia, the chairman of the Judiciary Committee; Representative Michael McCaul of Texas, the chairman of the Homeland Security Committee; and Representative Candice Miller of Michigan, the author of the new law." http://t.uani.com/1mmb6yB

Nuclear Program & Agreement

Reuters: "Iran will take reciprocal measures in response to any breach of this year's nuclear deal, the Foreign Ministry warned on Monday, after Tehran said new U.S. visa restrictions contravened the historic agreement... Earlier this month, the U.S. Congress passed a law restricting visa-free travel rights for people who have visited Iran or hold dual Iranian nationality, a measure that Iran's foreign minister called a breach of the deal. The measure, which affects citizens of the 38 mostly European countries that have visa waiver arrangements with the United States, is framed as a counterterrorism measure and also targets Iraq, Syria and Sudan. 'Any steps taken outside the agreement are unacceptable to Iran, and Iran will take its own steps in response where necessary,' Foreign Ministry spokesman Hossein Jaberi Ansari told a televised news conference when asked about the U.S. law. He said a committee tasked with overseeing the deal would be responsible for ordering the Iranian response to any breaches. Nuclear negotiator Abbas Araqchi, who heads that committee, has also said the visa law contravenes the deal." http://t.uani.com/1Sj3z01

AFP: "A top Iranian parliamentary official has written to his counterparts in Europe, China and Russia calling on them to oppose 'discriminatory' new US visa regulations. A bill passed by Congress this month bars citizens from 38 mainly European countries from travelling to the United States without a visa if they have previously visited Iran, Iraq, Syria or Sudan since 2011. It also requires a visa for citizens of those countries if they are dual nationals of any of the four target nations. Tehran says the new regulations fly in the face of its landmark nuclear deal struck with major powers, including the United States, in July. In the letter to his counterparts in the European parliament, France, Britain, Germany, Russia and China, the chairman of the Iranian parliament's national security and foreign policy committee, Alaedin Boroujerdi, described the law as 'unfair and discriminatory'. 'I would like to urge you to make every effort to oppose this decision by the US administration,' he said, quoted by the ISNA news agency, describing it as a 'destructive blow' to the nuclear agreement... The move reflects calls by US lawmakers and authorities to reduce security vulnerabilities after the deadly strikes last month in Paris, where some of the attackers were French and Belgians who could have travelled unrestricted to the United States to carry out attacks." http://t.uani.com/1OuPlJO

U.S.-Iran Relations

WashPost: "Jason Rezaian, The Washington Post correspondent who has been held captive by the Iranian government for more than 500 days, was granted a small reprieve Friday when his captors allowed a Christmas Day visit from his wife and mother. 'After several efforts, Yegi and I were able to secure permission from the court to meet with Jason for several hours today, Christmas,' Rezaian's mother, Mary, said in an email to The Post. Yegi is Rezaian's wife, Yeganeh Salehi, an Iranian citizen who is a correspondent for the National, a newspaper based in the United Arab Emirates. 'This is the first time in the year that I have been visiting him in Evin Prison that I could spend an extended time there and bring him his first home-cooked meal in months,' Mary Rezaian said in her email. 'We had a wonderful time together reminiscing of holidays past.' The Post correspondent earlier this month marked more than 500 days in captivity. That's longer than the 52 U.S. Embassy personnel who were held captive from November 1979 to January 1981... Washington Post Executive Editor Martin Baron issued the following statement: ... 'We welcome this act of basic humanity, and we encourage his jailers in Iran to follow up by doing all that justice and decency require: Release Jason from prison and allow him a return to life as a free man who can spend time with his family where and whenever he pleases.'" http://t.uani.com/1OoNAra

NBC: "An Iranian hactivist group has claimed responsibility for a cyberattack that gave it access to the control system for a dam in the suburbs of New York - an intrusion that one official said may be 'just the tip of the iceberg.' The group, SOBH Cyber Jihad, sent a message through another Iran-linked hacker outfit, Parastoo, promising that it would release the technical information that proves it was behind the 2013 breach, according to Flashpoint Intelligence. The hackers claimed they kept quiet about the attack for two years because of a 'state-level' warning not to go public with it 'for the greater good.' It wasn't until the Wall Street Journal reported the breach this weekend that SOBH Cyber Jihad said it decided to take credit for the operation against the Bowman Avenue Dam in Rye Brook, N.Y., just north of New York City. Sen. Charles Schumer, D-N.Y., said the revelation should be a wakeup call that the nation's critical infrastructure is too vulnerable to 'evil-doers' toiling away at keyboards." http://t.uani.com/1Jc3QzI

Congressional Action

Free Beacon: "More than 20 lawmakers have penned letters to the Obama administration expressing anger over its recent decision to waive certain counter-terrorism measures aimed at preventing potential terrorists from easily entering the United States in order to assuage Iran. The letters from members of Congress come days after the Obama administration promised Iranian leaders it would veto newly passed initiatives tightening the U.S. visa waiver program to close loopholes that have enabled a number of terrorists to enter the country legally... Secretary of State John Kerry said in a recent letter to Javad Zarif, the country's foreign minister, that the administration would ignore the enhanced counter-terrorism measures. In two separate letters sent Tuesday to the Departments of State and Homeland Security, lawmakers described this action as unconscionable and noted that Iranian actions have been responsible for killing a number of Americans. 'While we understand that Iranian officials have expressed their anxieties to you that this new provision could undermine business opportunities in Iran by international investors, it is beyond belief that those concerns would supersede a newly-enacted U.S. law designed to protect the American people from terrorism,' wrote 20 members of Congress, including Republican Reps. Bob Dold (Ill.), David Joyce (Ohio), Ron DeSantis (Fla.), and Mark Walker (N.C.). The law, which the president has already signed but has threatened to waive in order to calm Iran, 'clearly denies eligibility for the visa waiver program to individuals who have traveled to a country that is designated by the Secretary of State' as a top global sponsor of terrorism, they wrote. The lawmakers maintain that 'there is no legitimate justification to create a special exemption for Iran from an anti-terrorism an security law that was specifically designed to include Iran,' they wrote. 'Iran does not get to veto U.S. security measures.' Rep. Mike Pompeo (R., Kan.) independently sent his own letter to Kerry on Tuesday, warning that the administration's actions 'would put U.S. citizens at risk.'" http://t.uani.com/1OgWKKH

Sanctions Relief

WashPost: "In Iran, cheap oil is forcing the government to ratchet down expectations. The much-anticipated lifting of sanctions as a result of the deal to limit Iran's nuclear program is expected to result in an additional half-million barrels a day of oil exports by the middle of 2016. But at current prices, Iran's income from those sales will still fall short of revenue earned from constrained oil exports a year ago. Moreover, low prices are making it difficult for Iran to persuade international oil companies to develop Iran's long-neglected oil and gas fields, which have been off limits since sanctions were broadened in 2012. 'Should Iran come out of sanctions, they will face a very different market than the one they had left in 2012,' Amos Hochstein, the State Department's special envoy and coordinator for international energy affairs, said in an interview. 'They were forced to recede in a world of over $100 oil, and sanctions will be lifted at $36 oil. They will have to work harder to convince companies to come in and take the risk for supporting their energy infrastructure and their energy production.'" http://t.uani.com/1IyEKuX

Syria Conflict

AFP: "Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan Sunday accused Iran of sectarian policies in neighboring Syria by putting its weight behind Syrian President Bashar Assad. 'Had Iran not stood behind Assad for sectarian reasons, today maybe we would not be discussing an issue like Syria,' Erdogan said in a televised speech in Istanbul. Iran and Turkey are on opposing sides of the Syrian conflict, with Ankara supporting rebels fighting Assad and joining a U.S.-led coalition bombing the Islamic State group in Syria." http://t.uani.com/1RNSMM4

Human Rights

Rudaw: "At least 24 people from various parts of the country were executed in Iran last week, according to official media. The Iranian judicial authorities announced the convicts were armed narcotics smugglers and among them some who were executed for murder. The executions took place in provinces such as Qazvin, Hormozgan and Shiraz. Activists from the Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA) condemned the hangings and said in a report that the number of executions were far higher than reported by the state. The agency said that five other prisoners were also executed in Kerman and only one of them was charged with drug trafficking." http://t.uani.com/1NL9SWO

ICHRI: "The well-known Iranian poet Mohamadreza Haj Rostambegloo was released on bail from Karaj's Central Prison last week, following his third arrest by the authorities in Iran in the last six years. His mother, Maryam Soltani, told the International Campaign for Human Rights in Iran that he was freed on December 20, 2015, after posting 700 million rials (about $23,240) bail, four days after he was arrested by agents of the Revolutionary Guards Intelligence Organization. His passport, national ID card, mobile phone, and computer tablet were confiscated, she added. The 41-year-old poet, whose books include The Last Tango Under the Moonlight and Now Mona Lisa, was arrested on two previous occasions. In 2009 he was held in detention for five days after taking part in a demonstration following the disputed presidential election results." http://t.uani.com/1MDat9g

ICHRI: "Hassan Sheikh Aghaei, the editor of a Kurdish-Persian news site, was released on two billion rials (about $67,000) bail on December 6, 2015, after 60 days in detention in Mahabad Prison, 30 days of which he spent in solitary confinement. Sheik Aghaei's arrest and detention takes place within a crackdown by hardliners against independent journalists in Iran. A source close to Sheikh Aghaei told the International Campaign for Human Rights in Iran that his arrest was in connection with a number of articles and cartoons published on his site, Ruwange, which covers news in western Iran. The site has not been updated since his arrest." http://t.uani.com/1NKZY7H

Domestic Politics

AFP: "Iran postponed two premier league football matches on Sunday, state media said, as air pollution more than twice the acceptable level persisted in the capital. The games -- between Tehran teams and clubs visiting from Mashhad and Tabriz -- were rescheduled for Tuesday after Tehran's environment authority recommended 'refraining from all sport activities,' the Fars news agency said. Severe air pollution earlier this week had already led authorities to close schools for three days in and around the capital, where an estimated 14 million people live. The Air Quality Index in Tehran on Sunday stood at 132, an official told state television, well above the World Health Organisation's advised level of between zero and 50. Mohammad Rastegari advised the elderly, children and sick people -- including those suffering heart problems -- to stay indoors." http://t.uani.com/1NL8pjm

Foreign Affairs

AP: "Iranian President Hassan Rouhani accused archrival Saudi Arabia Sunday of promoting poverty and terrorism by continuing to bomb Yemeni rebels and supporting armed rebels fighting to topple Syrian President Bashar Assad in Syria. Addressing a conference in Tehran, Rouhani suggested that destroying Syria won't strengthen those governments in the region which support the anti-Assad rebels. 'Does the weakening of Syria benefit its Muslim neighbors? Does the destruction of Syria lead to the strengthening of Turkey, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, United Arab Emirates or other countries? Who is pleased by Syria's destruction other than Israel,' Rouhani said... Rouhani said the Islamic State group and other armed groups are defaming Islam by resorting to barbaric acts and that has led to Muslim states forgetting their common enemy: Israel. 'How many bombs and missiles have you purchased from the U.S. in the past year,' Rouhani asked in an apparent reference to Saudi Arabia. 'If you had distributed the same money among poor Muslims, none of them would have gone to bed hungry.'" http://t.uani.com/1OU3s5t

Opinion & Analysis

Roland Elliott Brown in IranWire: "Earlier this year, Iran reached an agreement with the US and five other world powers -- Britain, France, Germany, Russia and China -- over the future of its nuclear program. In exchange for Iran's agreement to ensure that its program is peaceful, the US and its European allies have lifted a wide range of sanctions hindering Iran's involvement in the world economy. Reports abound of foreign investors flocking to Iran to size up the new market. Even so, the investment scene in Iran will not be a free-for-all. Investors must carefully gauge the risks of entering an untested business environment, and of falling foul of remaining US sanctions... Investors arriving in Tehran will encounter a President-Hassan Rouhani-who is eager for investment, but also a conservative leadership and security state wary of foreign influence. 'Iran has not politically made up its mind whether it wants foreign firms to operate inside Iran,' says Djavad Salehi-Isfahani, a professor of economics at Virginia Tech. 'Iran is still a revolutionary country with fluid politics and a vociferous radical wing that dislikes foreign presence.' Yet while Iran's historical experience with foreign investment had been clouded by coups and foreign intrigue, he says, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has not opposed foreign investment. Iranian officials, Salehi-Isfahani says, are likely to seek foreign direct investment that will bring western capital to Iran, transfer technology, and train Iranian workers. They are less keen to see Iran simply become a major consumer market. But even where foreign direct investment is concerned, the state has some doubts. 'There is fear in Iran that too many foreign investors may make it harder to enforce restrictions regarding hejab, drinking alcohol, and so on.' The model for cautious investors, he says, might be the experience of investors in China, who have done business successfully without proselytizing against the communist government. Investors will also face continued risks from remaining US sanctions, which will continue to target specific Iranian entities, notably the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC). The IRGC is widely believed to be heavily -- and sometimes obscurely -- involved in Iran's economy. 'As long as the US government maintains those sanctions against the IRGC,' says Ali Alfoneh of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, 'companies will face great difficulties proving that their Iranian business partner is not an affiliate of, or entirely or partially owned by the IRGC. Only small companies with little or no presence in the American market can afford to ignore US sanctions against the IRGC.' Unless foreign companies can find a way of negotiating this dilemma, they are likely to face financing difficulties. 'Financial institutions will be reluctant to process trade and provide project finance unless they can be sure of the beneficial owners of any Iranian entities involved in a transaction,' says Henry Smith of the London-based consultancy Control Risks. 'Companies considering consortiums to deliver or finance projects will need to have a shared understanding and threshold of risk in order to decide which entities they - and their financial partners - will be comfortable engaging with.'" http://t.uani.com/1JEsELI

Josh Rogin in Bloomberg: "A Supreme Court case on compensating victims of terrorism gives House Republicans and the Obama administration a chance to agree about Iran for the first time in a long time. With bipartisan support, the House is weighing in on a pending case in which Tehran is trying to avoid paying the American victims of terror attacks linked to the Iranian government, including the 1983 bombing of the Marine barracks in Beirut and the 1996 bombing of the Khobar Towers in Saudi Arabia. At issue is whether Iran's central bank, Bank Markazi, will be forced to pay damages to over 1,300 American plaintiffs. Some are victims of attacks the U.S. government has linked to the Iranian government. Others are surviving family members of such victims. Although U.S. courts have found the Iranian government culpable for the attacks and ordered payment, Iran has never admitted responsibility and never abided by the U.S. judicial system's calls for it to pay billions of dollars in awarded damages. However, in 2008, the victims discovered that Bank Markazi had almost $2 billion stored in Citibank accounts in New York. The victims sued for that money, and the litigation has now reached the Supreme Court. In 2012, President Barack Obama issued an executive order blocking all of Bank Markazi's assets held in the U.S., preventing the Iranian government from taking them back to Iran. At the same time, Congress passed the Iran Threat Reduction and Syria Human Rights Act of 2012, which included a provision that made it easier for the victims to get the funds that the administration blocked... The fight over the $2 billion is nearing an end. In October, the Supreme Court decided to hear the case. The Obama administration has already filed a brief urging the court not to overturn the decisions of the circuit and appeals courts, which awarded the victims the frozen funds. Today, the House of Representatives will file a brief, which I obtained, to support the administration's position. 'The House has taken action to help more than 1,300 Americans -- victims of Iranian-sponsored terrorism and their families -- recover the damages they deserve from the Central Bank of Iran,' House Speaker Paul Ryan told me in a statement. 'Nothing can heal the horror of terrorism, but the U.S. must do everything in its power to deliver justice to its victims.' Ryan said that if the Supreme Court sides with Iran's central bank, the victims of the Beirut bombings, the Khobar Towers bombing and several other terrorist attacks will be left without aid. He also said that if the court strikes down the law, the legislative powers of the Congress could be 'dangerously compromised.' The amicus brief was filed by the Bipartisan Legal Advisory Group, a committee that oversees such matters made up of the House leaders of both parties. The leaders also circulated a 'Dear Colleague' letter to lawmakers, 226 of whom signed on to support the brief... On most issues of Iran policy, the Obama administration is fighting with Congress -- largely because the White House is trying to work with Tehran to implement the nuclear deal. But on this one case, the White House, Republicans Congressional Democrats seem to agree. To get that $2 billion from Iran, the victims need to convince just one more group: the justices." http://t.uani.com/22uNxEE

Patrick Clawson in WINEP: "Iranian president Hassan Rouhani has been eager to schedule the nuclear deal's Implementation Day before the February midterm elections in order to demonstrate that the economy is on the mend. But a December 21 International Monetary Fund (IMF) report documents the many challenges facing Iran's economy even if sanctions relief arrives soon, and the 2016/17 budget that Rouhani sent to the Majlis on December 22 does little to address those challenges. Rouhani's election promise to restore economic growth by completing a nuclear deal looked pretty good in 2014/15 (Iranian years begin March 20). The modest easing of sanctions and improved confidence contributed to 3% GDP growth that year, while consumer prices rose only 15% compared to 35% the year before. On September 6, 2014, Rouhani told an audience in Mashhad, 'Today, we can thankfully announce that we have passed through the recession.' But then things went sour. The IMF forecasts that in 2015/16, GDP will end up someplace between shrinking 0.5% and growing 0.5%, while consumer prices will increase at the same rate as last year. Unemployment is expected to rise from 10.4% in 2013/14 to 11.9% this year. The Tehran Stock Exchange index is 30% below the January 2014 peak, and imports are forecast to fall 10% this year... Former president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's administration was rightly savaged for its mismanagement and opacity, yet the Rouhani team has not lived up to the high hopes that it would run a tighter ship. A year and a half into his term, as the IMF report delicately puts it, 'The exact amount of public debt is not known precisely, as only a limited part of debt is recorded ... Preliminary estimates of Iran's public debt are expected by end-2015.' The debt includes an unknown amount of arrears owed to businesses run up in the past two years: 'The authorities were finalizing an inventory of all government arrears and a strategy to clear them.' Moreover, information is fragmentary at best about the finances of a long list of governmental and quasigovernmental bodies, including the subsidy-providing government agency, regional governments, nonfinancial public enterprises, regional governments, and public foundations. The banking system is in bad shape as well. The section of the IMF report covering Iran's banks is titled 'Unlocking Balance Sheets: An Immediate Priority to Support Growth,' and it opens with an ominous warning: 'The complexity and severity of the challenges facing the banking system require immediate action.' Thus far, the Rouhani team has accomplished little on this front: '[The authorities] explained that an initial financial health check of banks had been finalized, suggesting substantially higher levels of [non-performing loans], and they expect to initiate a more detailed assessment of the largest banks soon.' Rouhani has also failed to tackle the problem of overvalued currency. The IMF report points out that 'overvaluation ... persisted over the last year,' noting that 'economic fundamentals would have called for a depreciation.' ... Throughout his election campaign, Rouhani offered a simple analysis: the economy's main problem was sanctions, and a nuclear deal was the best way to relieve them. That formula is not looking so good today. Not only will the benefits of sanctions relief arrive slowly, but the drop in oil prices has highlighted Iran's overreliance on that resource. Khamenei's 'resistance economy' formula for stimulating the non-oil sector is looking better and better as a way to create badly needed jobs. Meanwhile, Rouhani's secondary election theme -- restoring competent management in place of the Ahmadinejad team's corruption and ineptitude -- looks less and less impressive. Perhaps Rouhani will achieve the optimistic targets he set out in a December 23 speech: 5% growth, 9.9% inflation, 75% of government revenue from non-oil sources, and a 90% (nominal) increase in development spending. But many Iranian economists are skeptical. In an October IMF press release, Martin Cerisola, the head of the team that prepared this month's Iran report, was quoted as follows: 'Risks to the outlook are significant, and longer-term prospects will depend crucially on the depth of reforms that are undertaken ... Ultimately, if mild reforms are implemented, the sanctions relief will have only a moderate positive impact on the economy.' That statement ably sums up the relative weight of sanctions relief and domestic policy as influences on Iran's economy. The oft-heard mantra about Iran policy -- that the West needs to help moderates like Rouhani -- looks pretty thin if those moderates do little to help themselves. Their problems in the economic sphere are overwhelmingly their own doing, not a result of any actions the West does or does not take." http://t.uani.com/1Vmp4ga

Elliot Abrams in CFR: "Since the signing of the nuclear deal with Islamic Republic of Iran, that government has treated the Obama administration with contempt. U.S. officials might have hoped Iran's conduct would improve, but it has worsened. Iran sent more Revolutionary Guard troops to fight in Syria, for example; it conducted two ballistic missile tests in violation of a Security Council resolution; leaders continue to chant 'Death to America;' and it has imprisoned more Americans. What is the Obama administration's response? To beg their pardon. I refer to a remarkable letter sent by Secretary of State Kerry to Iranian Foreign Minister Zarif. Iran, in an additional gesture of contempt, has complained about new United States visa requirements placed on persons who have traveled to Iran (or Iraq, Sudan, or Syria). These requirements were recently added so that people who had visited those countries could not come to the United States without getting a visa even if they were from countries that are part of the 'visa waiver' program. The obvious purpose: to avoid having terrorists get to the United States through a program that allows them to avoid the visa application process and the information it would supply. Iran has complained that 'Zionist lobbies' put the new rules in place, a good reminder of the nature of the regime. How did the United States react? By denouncing the Iranian attacks on 'Zionist lobbies,' which came from the spokesman for the Foreign Ministry? By noting that Iran is the world's worst state sponsor of terrorism? By recalling the fact that Iran just violated U.N. Security Council resolutions, and continues to jail innocent American citizens? Nope. By offering reassurance that we certainly do not mean to disadvantage Iran in any possible way... Let's put aside the thanks to Zarif for a 'constructive meeting.' We can be sure that Zarif was advancing Iranian national interests, and for doing that he deserves no thanks from us. The tone of the letter would be fine were it addressed to the foreign minister of Canada. Must we really assure the representative of this vile, repressive regime that regardless of its behavior we will bend over backwards and use every tool possible ('we have a number of potential tools available to us, including multiple entry ten-year business visas, programs for expediting business visas, and the waiver authority provided under the new legislation') to defend and advance its 'legitimate business interests?' Here's one of many possible alternative formulations: the ability and willingness of the United States government to use the tools at its disposal will depend on the treatment Iran accords American citizens whom it has unjustly detained and imprisoned. Mr. Kerry seems more worried about offending Iran than freeing those Americans-whose imprisonment was an issue set aside during the nuclear negotiations. Must we set it aside forever as we protect Iran's 'legitimate business interests?'" http://t.uani.com/1VmpeEg

WSJ Editorial: "Iran's ayatollahs are fond of timing and symbolism. So it's no accident that the regime freed jailed Christian Pastor Farshid Fathi on Tuesday in time for Christmas. The news is welcome, but it doesn't mean the mullahs are calling time-out on their war on dissidents. Security forces arrested Pastor Fathi five years ago and held him for months in solitary confinement before convicting him on charges that included 'evangelism' and possession of Persian-language Bibles, considered contraband in the Islamic Republic. Evangelical Christianity is exploding in Iran today, with conversion estimates ranging from 300,000 to half a million. Braving intense repression, new believers flock to online ministries and house churches such as the one founded by Pastor Fathi. Meantime, thousands of innocent prisoners still languish in Iran's jails. These include at least four American citizens: Christian Pastor Saeed Abedini, former U.S. Marine Amir Hekmati, Washington Post correspondent Jason Rezaian and Iranian-American businessman Siamak Namazi. President Obama has issued tepid statements of concern about such cases. Republican and Democratic presidential contenders could help the cause of the Americans by making it clear that they will do more to punish this kind of hostage taking. Now that he's free, Pastor Fathi will face pressure to leave the country. Yet forced exile won't diminish the power of his spiritual example. 'Although the beauty of Christmas . . . cannot be found in this prison,' he wrote in a letter to followers last December, 'with the ears of faith I can hear the everlasting and beautiful truth that 'the Virgin will conceive and give birth to a Son, and they will call him Immanuel.'' Merry Christmas, Pastor Fathi." http://t.uani.com/1NLcDaF
       

Eye on Iran is a periodic news summary from United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) a program of the American Coalition Against Nuclear Iran, Inc., a tax-exempt organization under Section 501(c)(3) of the Internal Revenue Code. Eye on Iran is not intended as a comprehensive media clips summary but rather a selection of media elements with discreet analysis in a PDA friendly format. For more information please email Press@UnitedAgainstNuclearIran.com

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