Turkey's Dangerous Ambitions

by Burak Bekdil • December 24, 2015 at 5:00 am

Erdogan repeated on Dec. 11 that Turkey would not pull out its troops out of Iraq. In response, Iraq appealed to the UN Security Council to demand an immediate withdrawal of all Turkish troops from Iraq, calling Turkey's incursion a "flagrant violation" of international law.
"For centuries, and even since the Mongols, sensible Islam has asked: 'What went wrong? Why has God forsaken us, and allowed others to reach the moon?'"-- Professor Norman Stone, prominent expert on Turkish politics.
With the inferiority complex and megalomania still gripping the country's Islamist polity, Erdogan's Islam is not sensible; it is perilous.

It is the same old Middle East story: The Shiite accuse Sunnis of passionately following sectarian policies; Sunnis accuse the Shiite of passionately following sectarian polices; and they are both right. Except that Turkey's pro-Sunni sectarian policies are taking an increasingly perilous turn as they push Turkey into new confrontations, adding newcomers to an already big list of hostile countries.

Take President Recep Tayyip Erdogan's recent remarks on the centuries-old Shiite-Sunni conflict: they amusingly looked more like a confession than an accusation: "Today we are faced with an absolute sectarianism. Who is doing it? Who are they? Iran and Iraq," Erdogan said.

This is the same Erdogan who once said, "The mosques are our barracks, the domes our helmets, the minarets our bayonets and the faithful our soldiers...." Is that not sectarian?

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Iran's Next Supreme Leader?

by Lawrence A. Franklin • December 24, 2015 at 4:00 am

The process of selecting the successor to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei already seems underway.
President Rouhani, government cabinet officers, and deputies of the Majles (consultative assembly/parliament) usually have little to no influence in the vetting process of candidates.
The Revolutionary Guards, ranking intelligence officers, and the regime's plutocrats do not want to elevate anyone with an independent power base or a charismatic personality.
Whoever is ultimately selected, regime stability at least for the next few years seems assured: anti-regime networks remain shredded after the 2009 nationwide protests were violently suppressed.

Out with the old, in with the new?
A serious contender to replace Ayatollah Khamenei (center) in the office of Supreme Leader is Ayatollah Sadegh Larijani (right). (Image source: Office of Supreme Leader)

While U.S. policymakers, media talking-heads and many think tank pundits are fixated on the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) and Tehran's nuclear weapons projects, the focus of Iran's power-brokers is on regime continuity and leadership succession. Iran's next parliamentary elections are scheduled for February 26, 2016.

The process of selecting the successor to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei already seems underway. Former President Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani (1989-1997) hinted as much, according to a Reuters report. The aging first generation of the 1979 Islamic Revolution's leadership are determined to maintain regime stability during the transition to a new rahbar (leader) upon the retirement or death of Khamenei.

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