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The ISIS/Iran
Conundrum
by Lee Smith
December 29, 2015
The obsessive international preoccupation with ISIS notwithstanding, Iranian expansionism poses a far greater threat to U.S. interests and regional allies than the self-proclaimed Islamic State. Tehran boasts control of four Arab capitals (Baghdad, Damascus, Beirut, and Sana) as well as a number of powerful Shiite militias (from Hezbollah, to the Houthis, to various Iraqi groups), and has warmed relations with Moscow following the latter's military intervention in the Syrian civil war. As a result, Washington has effectively abandoned its longstanding goal of toppling President Bashar Assad - Tehran's (and Russia's) foremost regional protégé - whose relentless sectarian cleansing has not only decimated Syria's Sunni population but has flooded Europe with illegal immigrants.
Washington is perfectly capable of defeating ISIS just as it routed its precursor in the 2007 surge, when U.S. forces collaborated with local Sunni tribes against al-Qaeda and its local allies. But to do so it will need to stop its courtship of Iran, which has alienated Sunni societies and reduced their readiness to join the anti-ISIS fight, and to curb Tehran's burgeoning expansionism. This includes penalizing the repeated Iranian violations of the newly-signed nuclear agreement and toppling the Assad regime - the main lifeline to Iran's Hezbollah proxy. This, however, is probably asking too much of the Obama administration. As the Middle East's simmering problems are exported to Europe and increasingly affect the American homeland, it remains clueless, leaving a very heavy burden for the next administration. Summary account by Marilyn Stern, Middle East Forum Board of Governors |
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