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NBC: "Senior U.S. military
commanders on Wednesday accused Iran's military of 'highly provocative'
actions in firing unguided rockets 1,500 yards from ships including an
American aircraft carrier. The USS Harry S. Truman was crossing
international waters in the Strait of Hormuz when Iranian Revolutionary
Guards (IRCGN) conducted a live-fire exercise right nearby, according to
a statement. An Iranian navy attack craft fired several unguided rockets
near the carrier, officials said. A French frigate, the U.S. destroyer
USS Bulkeley and other commercial traffic were also in the area at the
time of Saturday's incident. Only 23 seconds warning was given before the
weapons were fired, according to U.S. Navy Cmdr. Kyle Raines, a spokesman
for U.S. Central Command. The rockets were not fired at the Truman and
other ships, and there were no direct communications between U.S. and
Iranian navies, military officials said. 'The IRGCN's actions were highly
provocative,' Cmdr. Kevin Stephens, spokesman for the U.S. Fifth Fleet,
said Wednesday in a statement. 'Firing weapons so close to passing
coalition ships and commercial traffic within an internationally
recognized maritime traffic lane is unsafe, unprofessional, and
inconsistent with international maritime law.'" http://t.uani.com/1Vpz1t8
WSJ: "President Barack Obama
announced two years ago he would curtail eavesdropping on friendly heads
of state after the world learned the reach of long-secret U.S.
surveillance programs. But behind the scenes, the White House decided to
keep certain allies under close watch, current and former U.S. officials
said. Topping the list was Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The
U.S., pursuing a nuclear arms agreement with Iran at the time, captured
communications between Mr. Netanyahu and his aides that inflamed mistrust
between the two countries and planted a political minefield at home when
Mr. Netanyahu later took his campaign against the deal to Capitol Hill.
The National Security Agency's targeting of Israeli leaders and officials
also swept up the contents of some of their private conversations with
U.S. lawmakers and American-Jewish groups. That raised fears-an 'Oh-s-
moment,' one senior U.S. official said-that the executive branch would be
accused of spying on Congress. White House officials believed the
intercepted information could be valuable to counter Mr. Netanyahu's
campaign. They also recognized that asking for it was politically risky.
So, wary of a paper trail stemming from a request, the White House let
the NSA decide what to share and what to withhold, officials said. 'We
didn't say, Do it,' a senior U.S. official said. 'We didn't say, Don't do
it.' Stepped-up NSA eavesdropping revealed to the White House how Mr.
Netanyahu and his advisers had leaked details of the U.S.-Iran
negotiations-learned through Israeli spying operations-to undermine the
talks; coordinated talking points with Jewish-American groups against the
deal; and asked undecided lawmakers what it would take to win their
votes, according to current and former officials familiar with the
intercepts... Privately, Mr. Obama maintained the monitoring of Mr.
Netanyahu on the grounds that it served a 'compelling national security
purpose,' according to current and former U.S. officials... Soon after,
Israel's lobbying campaign against the deal went into full swing on
Capitol Hill, and it didn't take long for administration and intelligence
officials to realize the NSA was sweeping up the content of conversations
with lawmakers." http://t.uani.com/1NR29GP
Fars
(Iran):
"Iranian Parliament Speaker Ali Larijani announced that the country
will gain access to modern nuclear technology to upgrade its centrifuges.
'Iran will have a new generation of centrifuges in the (near) future that
can help the country to improve its nuclear technology structure,'
Larijani said, addressing a ceremony in the city of Qom, Central Iran, on
Wednesday. He reiterated that the quality of centrifuges is more
important than their quantity, and said, 'The new generation of Iran's
centrifuges will be of a much higher quality as compared with the
previous ones.' In mid-September, Head of the Atomic Energy Organization
of Iran (AEOI) Ali Akbar Salehi announced that Iran was seeking Russia's
help to enhance its centrifuges." http://t.uani.com/1OsBugS
Sanctions
Relief
Mehr
(Iran): "An MoU
was signed between Iran's ISOICO and the Russian Krasnye Barrikady
Shipyard on the sidelines of Russian National Industrial Exhibition -
Trade and Industrial Dialogue: Russia - Iran 2015. The Memorandum of
Understanding (MoU) was signed by managing directors of Iran Shipbuilding
and Offshore Industries Complex Company (ISOICO) and the managing
director of Russia's Krasnye Barrikady Shipyard with the presence of
Iran's Deputy Minister of Industry, Mine and Trade Mojtaba Khosro Taj.
'Being Russia's largest shipyard, Krasnye Barrikady is active in the
production of ships and vessels for transporting petrochemicals as well
as building oil rigs,' ISOICO Managing Director Hamid Rezaeian told the
reporters on Sunday deeming the newly-signed MoU as a major step in the
development of his company's activities... 'With the signing of the MoU,
Iran will enter the Russian market with ISOICO trademark,' highlighted
the official asserting 'the other significant advantage pertains to the
receiving of international approvals by the Russian firm's rating
agency.'" http://t.uani.com/1JfBUuR
Press TV
(Iran):
"Iranian shipbuilder ISOICO says it has signed an agreement with
Russian shipyard Krasnye Barrikady (Red Barricades) for oil rig
construction and technology transfer. ISOICO Managing Director Hamid
Rezaian said the agreement will allow his company to take advantage of
the Russian firm's facilities to produce certain equipment. 'We are ready
to provide ISOICO with the necessary equipment thanks to financial and
insurance support of the Russian government,' Red Barricades CEO
Alexander Ilyichev said. The deal was signed earlier this month in Tehran
where representatives of 80 leading Russian companies showcased their
products in the biggest foreign display of the kind ever held in Iran.
Under the agreement, the two sides will jointly build rigs for
exploration and production of hydrocarbons in the Persian Gulf
waters." http://t.uani.com/1JJ6V5o
Bloomberg: "Turkish brokerage and advisory
firm Unlu Yatirim Holding AS is targeting Iran for its first expansion
outside its home market as the impending removal of trade sanctions on
the Islamic republic presents opportunities to investors. The
Istanbul-based firm plans to offer brokerage services in Iran and start
the first hedge fund in Turkey that invests in Iranian fixed income and
stocks in 2016, Chairman Mahmut Unlu said in a telephone interview on
Monday. The fund, which has already received approval from the capital
markets regulator in Ankara, may have an initial size of around $50
million, which could increase depending on subscriptions, he said. 'We
are very hopeful, based on information from Iranian officials and
international nuclear monitors, that sanctions will start to be removed
from late January or February at the latest, if everything goes as
planned,' Unlu said... Unlu Yatirim is in talks with an Iranian brokerage
for a joint venture and will soon begin to provide equity research for
listed Iranian companies for its international clients, Unlu said. If the
venture talks fail, Unlu has permission from Iranian authorities to establish
a brokerage by itself, he said." http://t.uani.com/1NR7f5X
Domestic
Politics
Al-Monitor: "The registration process for
the February 2016 parliamentary and Assembly of Experts elections has
come to end with a record number of candidates: Nearly 12,000 individuals
registered to compete for a seat in the 290-member parliament. It will be
the job of the conservative Guardian Council to determine which candidates
pass through their filters and ultimately will be allowed to run. While
the council is not obligated to specify publicly why the candidates are
qualified or disqualified, it seems the 2009 presidential elections will
be a central factor in their decision-making process. Guardian Council
spokesman Nejatollah Ebrahimian told Tasnim News Agency on Dec. 27 that
the council will review all the comments and actions of the candidates
during 2009 postelection protests. He said that the behavior of the candidates
should not have been such that it could be construed that they
participated in the illegal activities during 2009, adding they should
have 'clear and specific lines drawn with the sedition of 2009.'" http://t.uani.com/1QYsBT7
AFP: "More than two weeks of heavy
pollution led Iranian officials to ban all outdoor sport and impose new
traffic restrictions Wednesday as persistent cold weather exacerbated
Tehran's air quality problems. In the worst concerted period of pollution
for three years, primary schools and nurseries were closed and new car
exclusion zones imposed in the capital. Tehran's air quality index
averaged 159 on Wednesday, up two from the previous day, and more than
three times the World Health Organization's maximum advised level of
between zero and 50... The official IRNA news agency reported that it was
the 18th straight day of dangerously bad air while newspapers quoted
officials casting blame on each other for the problem and failure to
tackle it... While Tehran is the epicentre the pollution also closed
primary schools in other major cities including Isfahan, Qom, Arak and
Tabriz." http://t.uani.com/1Tpu2Y5
Opinion
& Analysis
David
Ignatius in WashPost:
"One of the arguments for the Iran nuclear deal was that it would
encourage greater openness and investment from the West. But Iranian
hard-liners have been working in recent months to sabotage the proponents
of economic globalization and change. The clearest example is the case of
an Iranian American businessman named Siamak Namazi, 44, who was arrested
around Oct. 14. Iran hasn't announced any formal charges, but he has been
accused in the Iranian press of being a tool of such institutions as the
World Economic Forum, the National Endowment for Democracy, the Woodrow
Wilson International Center for Scholars and the Rockefeller Brothers
Fund. According to Iranian press accounts, Namazi is being held by the
intelligence service of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps in a
special section of Evin Prison. News organizations close to the IRGC have
published conspiracy stories that appear to be drawn from his
interrogation and from information on his laptop. The allegations center,
bizarrely, on Namazi's status as a 'Young Global Leader' under a program
organized by the World Economic Forum. A story posted on the hard-line
website Raja News describes the forum and its youth fellowships as part
of a 'Zionist' network that uses investment and trade as tools of
political subversion. Another story, posted by Jahan News, links Namazi
to the other think tanks and foundations that it claims are part of a Western
'influence network.' ... The Namazi incident is a reality check for those
who hoped that the nuclear agreement would be the prelude to a broader
opening. Since the agreement was reached in July, Supreme Leader Ali
Khamenei has repeatedly said that Iran won't allow economic
'infiltration' by a United States he described last month as a
'deceitful, crafty, skillful, fraudulent and devilish enemy.' The
imprisonment of Namazi in October came days after an Iranian court
convicted Post reporter Jason Rezaian, also an Iranian American, on
charges of espionage. Marty Baron, The Post's executive editor, called
the verdict 'an outrageous injustice.' ... The message from the
hard-liners, whose IRGC-linked businesses have prospered since the
revolution, is that they won't give up economic or political power to the
old elite, as sanctions are lifted and foreign investment grows in Iran.
Just as the IRGC evidently hopes, the Namazi case has chilled some
Iranian American business leaders who had considered investing in Iran.
An example is a group called iBridges, which includes some wealthy
Iranian Americans, such as Hamid Biglari, who was a senior executive at
Citigroup... But iBridges has been attacked in the Iranian press, and
some of its members - who were enthusiastic just a few months ago about
funding start-ups in Iran - are said to be reconsidering. Says one
Iranian American who has pulled back from planned investments: 'All this
is a warning shot across the bow to the entire diaspora: Don't even think
about coming back to rebuild relations with the West.' Rouhani and other
pragmatists argue that foreign investment will strengthen Iran and boost
its national security. But hard-liners insist that Western money is a
tool of the Great Satan that will undermine the revolution. This battle
over foreign influence will be one of Iran's fault lines in the year
ahead." http://t.uani.com/1TpwNsz
WashPost
Editorial: "Jason
Rezaian, the Post journalist imprisoned in Iran, has now been held longer
than any U.S. correspondent jailed anywhere abroad in at least the past
quarter-century, according to the Committee to Protect Journalists (CPJ).
On Wednesday he will spend his 527th day in captivity, deprived not only
of freedom but also of any semblance of justice. Though his trial ended
Aug. 10, neither Mr. Rezaian nor his lawyer has yet been informed of a
verdict or sentence against him. In continuing to hold him, Iran openly
violates its own laws, not to mention basic standards of human rights.
Unfortunately, such arbitrary and cruel treatment is not unusual for
journalists in the world's unfree countries. According to the CPJ, 199
were in prison because of their work in 28 countries on Dec. 1. Mr.
Rezaian was one of 19 jailed in Iran alone. At least 70 other media
workers were killed in 2015, including 47 who were singled out for murder
in order to silence them... The leading jailers of journalists identified
by the CPJ were grimly familiar: China, Egypt, Eritrea and Turkey were at
the top of the list, along with Iran... Autocratic regimes single out
journalists because they almost always get away with it. The State
Department, like other Western government agencies, issues protests when
reporters are jailed, but rarely takes action... In Mr. Rezaian's case,
the Obama administration did not seek his release as part of the nuclear
accord reached this summer. The lack of consequences surely has
contributed to Mr. Rezaian's record confinement - which, unlike the
nuclear deal, President Obama should not want for a legacy." http://t.uani.com/1JJ7PyH
Samuel
Rubenfeld in WSJ:
"Changing sanctions on Iran will be a top focus for companies as a
nuclear deal starts to take effect, experts told Risk & Compliance
Journal. Sanctions on Iran are scheduled to undergo major changes during
2016, marking the biggest challenge in sanctions compliance over the next
year, experts say. Companies are deeply interested in the Iranian market,
but measures that will remain in place, as well as other risks, may give
them pause before entering. The U.S. is 'moving a lot on Iran on nuclear
[sanctions], but it will move less than people think it will,' said
Zachary Brez, a partner at law firm Ropes & Gray, who said he's
fielding lots of calls on Iran from clients... Companies seeking to
operate in Iran long-term will be dependent on Tehran satisfying the demands
of the agreement amid threats of the snap-back of sanctions, and that
seems risky, said Mr. Brez, noting that he expects Iranian compliance
with the deal to come in fits and starts. 'It's really hard for a
business to operate under that kind of uncertainty,' said Mr. Brez.
Douglas Jacobson, a partner at the international trade law firm Jacobson
Burton Kelley LLP, has been skeptical of the conventional wisdom that
Implementation Day will come as quickly as January, and that companies
will flood into Iran immediately thereafter. 'I think there will be some
initial reluctance by non-U.S. companies because Iran isn't an easy place
to do business,' he said. The U.S. Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets
Control is expected in early 2016-ahead of Implementation Day-to issue
guidance spelling out how companies will navigate the new sanctions
landscape without violating existing rules. Experts said they expect a
general license on Implementation Day explicitly laying out permissible
conduct. How broadly the license will be written is unclear, however,
they said. Richard Matheny, a partner at law firm Goodwin Procter, said
the general license from OFAC 'could be the first time we get meat on the
bones' on what constitutes 'facilitation' under sanctions law.
Facilitation refers to the acts by a U.S. parent to further the business
of its subsidiary, and Mr. Jacobson said it's unclear whether that
includes handling transactions, cloud use for data processing or more.
'The business community wants it as broad as possible' said Mr. Jacobson,
noting that the increased corporate use of the cloud across a company's
international operations and subsidiaries could pose problems. Mr.
Matheny, however, questioned how the U.S. parent companies will manage
the facilitation risk while allowing their foreign subsidiaries to take
advantage of the general license. 'Infecting a foreign company with Iran
issues might make it less attractive to U.S. investment or engagement,'
he said. Meanwhile, Mr. Jacobson said, the U.S. will still be looking to
enforce its existing sanctions on Iran. 'OFAC will put its money where
its mouth is, and BIS [the Commerce Department's Bureau of Industry and
Security] and ICE [Immigration and Customs Enforcement] will patrol the
export side,' said Mr. Jacobson. 'No one will be safe, unless they are in
full compliance,' he said." http://t.uani.com/1mpCkEB
Roger
Boyes in Times of London: "As vampires shy away from garlic, so Iran's
hardliners recoil from the whiff of change. If all goes according to
plan, western sanctions against the Tehran regime will be lifted in early
2016 and among the Iranian young there is a sense that the country will
soon reconnect with the modern world. The ski resort of Dizin is poised
to be the new Verbier; across the country 25 new hotels could be built
every year to cope with the anticipated influx of foreigners. Deal-makers
are everywhere in the capital waiting for the moment that the world declares
Iran to be open again for business. Yet, as far as the hardliners are
concerned, this is the moment of maximum danger for the survival of the
theocratic regime. Since the West signed the nuclear containment deal
with Iran in July, the authorities have been tightening the screws. An
Iranian American has been detained on nonsensical charges. When a Baha'i
businessman was shot in the back of the head, his cousin decided to
investigate and was framed on drugs charges this autumn. Executions have
steeply increased, even of juvenile offenders. The prisons are full. And
throughout the region Iran is sowing discord. In the days of the Shah,
his more devout critics would talk of gharbzadegi - the illness from the
West, westoxification. Mimicking the West was seen as a betrayal of
Persia's cultural heritage. So when today's enthusiasts for the nuclear
deal talk of Iran's ski slopes becoming a magnet for the world,
conservative Tehranis recall only the Shah relaxing in St Moritz
surrounded by sycophantic courtiers, one of whom was required to procure
young lovers for the ruler in the apres-ski discos; hardliners believe
that exercising nuclear self-restraint at the bidding of the US is
ushering in a new age of decadence. These voices are being ignored by the
Obama administration in the rush to declare the nuclear accord to be a
key part of the presidential legacy. Barack Obama wants to be the leader
who ended 'dumb wars'. In dealing with Iran, that has meant exaggerating
the power of its president Hassan Rouhani and believing in his sincerity
as well as his tweeting corps of Anglophone advisers. And it means
writing off Rouhani's opponents as doomed enemies of modernity. This will
be the undoing of the accord. Margaret Thatcher placed her chips on
Mikhail Gorbachev and, for a while, she was right. But Gorbachev begat
Yeltsin and Yeltsin begat Putin. Rouhani is even more of a transitional
figure than Gorbachev... One central flaw of the accord is its expiry
date. The US considers it a diplomatic victory that it has blocked the
Iranian pathway to a bomb for the next 15 years and that Iran has agreed
to the monitoring of the whole supply chain. What happens, though, if, as
must be expected, the regime cheats? What happens if the Iranian
Revolutionary Guard steps up its activities with Bashar al-Assad, with
Hezbollah and Hamas, and turns Iran not into a promising new partner but
more of a destructive force? What happens if Rouhani is replaced with a
leader who couldn't give a fig for pieces of paper signed with a former US
administration? Cheating is supposed to be met by 'snapback' sanctions,
or immediate penalties. The snapback principle will, however, only be
applied for major breaches. The most likely outcome is that small-scale
violations will be referred to a joint review commission - and, after due
delay, Iran will promise to rectify the shortcoming. The regime will aim
to engineer a culture of accommodation, of nudges and winks. But the
point of talking to Iran is to build credible deterrence, not to give it
more wriggle room. Outside the immediate nuclear realm, Iran is acting
like a regional power that has thrown off its chains. It recently tested
a new liquid-fuel medium-range ballistic missile, despite UN Security
Council resolutions. Arms trafficking to terror groups is gathering pace.
It is preparing to bulk up its army with Russian T-90 tanks. In Syria it
has been gaining battle experience; some five thousand Revolutionary
Guards are on the ground, co-ordinating Iraqi Shia, Pakistanis and
Afghans. It is difficult to see Iran ever becoming a comfortable partner.
Diplomacy does not always prevent war; sometimes it merely postpones the
first shot and hopes for the best. It is to Obama's credit that he
grabbed an opportunity to break a political logjam and reduce the risk of
an Israeli-Iranian conflagration. Yet the result was a flawed deal based
on a poor understanding of the actual intentions of the Iranian regime.
It might just have made the region more, not less, dangerous." http://t.uani.com/1VpCk3w
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Eye on Iran is a periodic news summary from United Against
Nuclear Iran (UANI) a program of the American Coalition Against Nuclear
Iran, Inc., a tax-exempt organization under Section 501(c)(3) of the
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email Press@UnitedAgainstNuclearIran.com
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