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TOP STORIES
The Financial Action Task Force, an international
anti-money-laundering standards body, said Friday it would extend the
suspension of some of its restrictions against Iran. The FATF last
year granted Tehran 12 months to improve aspects of its
anti-money-laundering program, saying Iran adopted and committed to
an action plan to address some deficiencies. On Friday, the FATF said
Iran has demonstrated a political commitment to, and taken some steps
in line with, its action plan, giving the body enough reason to
continue the suspension of what it calls
"counter-measures." "The FATF will keep monitoring
progress in the implementation of the action plan and consider next
steps," the body said in a statement announcing the outcomes of
its latest plenary meeting, held this week.
Tehran is the "largest state sponsor" of
terror in the world and has gained "enormous influence" in
the Middle East, CIA Director Mike Pompeo said in an interview on
Saturday, June 24. "Today, we find it [Iran] with enormous
influence, influence that far outstrips where it was six or seven
years ago," Pompeo told MSNBC. "Whether it's the influence
they have over the government in Baghdad, whether it's the increasing
strength of Hezbollah and Lebanon, their work alongside the Houthis
in Yemen, the Iraqi Shias that are fighting along [them] now [at] the
border [with] Syria - certainly the Shia forces that are engaged in
Syria, Iran is everywhere throughout the Middle East," he added.
Mike Pompeo, a former Republican congressman from Kansas, was
referring to Iran-backed forces who under the label of 'Hashd
al-Sha'bi (Popular Mobilization Forces or PMF) are fighting to oust
Islamic State group (IS) militants from Iraq-Syrian border areas.
Four Arab states that imposed a boycott on Qatar have
issued an ultimatum to Doha to close Al Jazeera television, curb ties
with Iran, shut a Turkish base and pay reparations, demands so far
reaching it would appear to be hard for Doha to comply. Saudi
Arabia, Egypt, Bahrain and the United Arab Emirates have sent a
13-point list of demands apparently aimed at dismantling their tiny
but wealthy neighbor's two-decade-old interventionist foreign policy
which has incensed them. Kuwait is helping mediate the dispute. A
Qatari government spokesman said Doha was reviewing the list of
demands and that a formal response would be made by the foreign
ministry and delivered to Kuwait, but added that the demands were not
reasonable or actionable. "This list of demands confirms what
Qatar has said from the beginning - the illegal blockade has nothing
to do with combating terrorism, it is about limiting Qatar's
sovereignty, and outsourcing our foreign policy," Sheikh Saif
al-Thani director of Qatar's government communications office, said
in a statement.
UANI IN THE NEWS
At issue is the invisible hand of sanctioned
organizations like the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and
its vast economic footprint. According to the U.S. Treasury
Department, the IRGC is Iran's "most powerful economic
actor." It represents around one-sixth of the country's gross
domestic product and controls hundreds of front companies that mask
its involvement in huge swaths of the economy. Just consider the case
of Taiwan's Yang Ming, one of the largest cargo shipping lines in the
world. In March, it confirmed to United Against Nuclear Iran, an
advocacy group where I serve as an advisory board member, that it
would stop its work at Iran's largest container port by the end of
April. The layers of ownership are endlessly complex: One
IRGC-controlled entity, the Tidewater Middle East Co., is blacklisted
by the Treasury Department and operates in six of Iran's ports and
terminals: Assaluyeh Port, Bandar Anzali, Bandar Imam Khomeini Grain
Terminal, Aprin Port, Amir Abad Port Complex, and Khorramshar Port.
That means foreign shipping companies could unwittingly become
entangled by IRGC-controlled entities that have successfully masked
their involvement in the industry - paying loading, docking and other
port fees to an internationally-sanctioned terrorist group.
The highly-consequential verdict of the Financial Action
Task Force was issued in favor of Iran-albeit not to the country's
expectations-as the global standard-setting body for anti-money laundering
and combating the financing of terrorism extended the suspension of
countermeasures against the Islamic Republic on Friday. The
intergovernmental organization recognized "Iran's demonstration
of its political commitment and the relevant steps it has taken in
line with its Action Plan" and indefinitely extended its
suspension of countermeasures for Tehran to address its shortcomings,
FATF's website reported. On June 19, two former US senators who are
now top-level officials with the United Against Nuclear Iran-a
non-partisan, non-profit advocacy organization in the US-wrote an
opinion piece for the Wall Street Journal, exhorting the FATF to not
only call on its members to reinstate sanctions against Iran, but
also "implement more stringent resolutions"
U.S.-IRAN RELATIONS
As the White House formulates its official policy on
Iran, senior officials and key allies of President Donald Trump are
calling for the new administration to take steps to topple Tehran's
militant clerical government. Supporters of dislodging Iran's
iron-fisted clerical leadership say it's the only way to halt
Tehran's dangerous behavior, from its pursuit of nuclear weapons to
its sponsorship of terrorism. Critics say that political meddling in
Iran, where memories of a 1953 CIA-backed coup remain vivid, risks a
popular backlash that would only empower hard-liners. That's why
President Barack Obama assured Iranians, in a 2013 speech at the
United Nations, that "we are not seeking regime change."
But influential Iran hawks want to change that under Trump.
TERRORISM
Iranian security forces have arrested members of a group
linked to Islamic State which had planned bombings and suicide
attacks in religious centers, state television reported on Saturday.
Intelligence Ministry agents "were able to arrest a group linked
to Daesh (Islamic state) that intended to carry out terror operations
in religious cities ..., and (seized) explosive and suicide attack
equipment," the television said. It did not say how many
militants were held. The arrests came days after Iranian
Revolutionary Guards fired missiles from western Iran into eastern
Syria, aiming at bases of the Islamic State which had claimed
responsibility for twin attacks that killed 18 people in Tehran on
June 7.
Both Iran and Qatar on Saturday voiced support for Saudi
Arabia over a suicide bombing near Islam's holiest site in Mecca
despite their severed ties. "Iran... as always expresses its
readiness to assist and cooperate with other countries to confront
these criminals, who deal death and ignorantly spread hate,"
foreign ministry spokesman Bahram Ghassemi said. The Qatari foreign
ministry expressed "solidarity with the brotherly kingdom of
Saudi Arabia". Six foreign pilgrims were wounded when a suicide
bomber blew himself up near the Grand Mosque in Mecca, where hundreds
of thousands of worshippers had gathered for prayers on the last
Friday of the Muslim fasting month of Ramadan. The Saudi interior
ministry said a wider plot had been foiled with the arrest of five
suspects earlier in the day.
EXTREMISM
Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah said on Friday
that a future war waged by Israel against Syria or Lebanon could draw
thousands of fighters from countries including Iran and Iraq. His
comments indicated that the same array of Iranian-backed Shi'ite
militias - but not countries - currently fighting in Syria in support
of President Bashar al-Assad could take part in any future conflict
with Israel. Tensions have risen between Hezbollah and its longtime
foe Israel in recent months since Donald Trump became U.S. president
with his tough talk against Iran. Israel's air force chief said his
country would use all its strength from the start in any new war with
Hezbollah. "The Israeli enemy must know that if an Israeli war
is launched against Syria or Lebanon, it is not known that the
fighting will remain Lebanese-Israeli, or Syrian-Israeli,"
Nasrallah said in a televised speech.
SYRIA CONFLICT
Iran said Sunday the two-stage missiles it fired at
Islamic State targets in Syria broke apart over the Iraqi desert as
planned, mocking reports that some of the projectiles fell short.
State TV's website quoted the airspace division chief of Iran's Revolutionary
Guard Gen. Amir Ali Hajizadeh as saying "we had coordinated the
fall of the engines in the desert in Iraq" in advance. "The
missiles we used were two-stage, it means that the engine separates
from the warhead," said Hajizadeh. Hajizadeh said U.S. drones
hovered over the targets after shortly the Iranian missiles hit them.
He said the U.S. may have been informed beforehand about the attack,
as they had informed the Russian military, which may have relayed the
information to the Americans.
A US airstrike on Syrian positions in al-Tanf on June 6
is a sign that the United States and Iran are taking sides on
opposite sides of this latest fault line in the region. Arash Karami
reports that Iran on June 18 for the first time launched missiles
against IS positions in eastern Syria. "The timing of the
strikes," Karami writes, "has led some to believe the
message was also intended for the new US administration, which is
adopting a policy of regime change for Tehran and is reportedly
seeking to confront Iran militarily in Syria." Hashem explains
that the notion of a "road link" or "land bridge"
from Tehran to Beirut "might, however, be an overstatement or a
bit of hyperventilating analysis, given that in the past Israeli
fighter jets have on several occasions hit alleged arm supplies near
and around Damascus. A longer route, mainly through a no man's land
in remote areas of Iraq, is likely to be vulnerable to hits by the
Israeli or US air forces, not to mention possible attacks by insurgents,
including IS."
FOREIGN AFFAIRS
Iran's foreign minister, Mohammad Javad Zarif, called on
Europe on Monday to use its influence to promote dialogue in the
Persian Gulf after Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt and
Bahrain cut ties with Qatar earlier this month. Blaming Iran or Qatar
for "terrorism" is an attempt by those countries to avoid
taking responsibility for their own failures in addressing the
demands of their own people, he said in a speech in the German capital
in which he argued for a new regional security mechanism for the Gulf
countries.
DOMESTIC POLITICS
Iran's president, Hassan Rouhani, has been heckled during
an annual pro-Palestinian rally in Tehran, a week after he was
criticised by the supreme leader, as a power struggle between the two
appeared to escalate. Rouhani, who was participating in the Quds
rally, which is held on the last Friday of Ramadan, had to be rushed
to his car after protesters shouted slogans comparing him to
Abolhassan Banisadr, the country's first president who was impeached
and later exiled after falling foul of the clerical establishment.
"Rouhani, Banisadr, happy marriage," protesters chanted.
There were also shouts of "Death to liar, death to American
mullah". This month, Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali
Khamenei, humiliated Rouhani in public, saying he should not polarise
the society in the same way - in Khamenei's opinion - that Banisadr
did.
As President Hassan Rouhani addressed a gathering of
Iran's top political and military leaders, he outlined core themes
that helped him secure a landslide election victory, including the
need to attract foreign investment to help create hundreds of
thousands of jobs. But the most powerful man in the room, Ayatollah
Ali Khamenei, the Islamic republic's supreme leader, was unimpressed.
"The president mentioned many things that must be done...but who
must do them? He must," he said dismissively. Video footage of
the event this month showed Mr Rouhani listening with a rueful smile
as Mr Khamenei's caustic comments drew laughs from the audience. The
episode underlined how the pragmatic president is facing increasing
resistance from powerful hardline elements of the regime who are
determined to curb his influence in the wake of his election victory
last month.
Observers have begun analyzing who could be Iran's next
supreme leader as Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's deteriorates, with many
saying that Khamenei's death will mark a turning point for the
Iranian Republic. This comes as Foreign Affairs magazine ran an analysis
saying that Khamenei desperately wants a smooth transition and is
insisting that someone personally and ideologically close to him take
over the helm once he dies. Sanam Vakil and Hossein Rassam, authors
of the Foreign Affairs piece, argue against the notion that "the
deep state" will "safeguard the Islamic Republic long after
he is gone." "The problem with this argument is that the
deep state is hardly invincible, and those in the regime who are
aching for reform, including President Hassan Rouhani and his circle,
are hardly impotent," Sanam Vakil and Hossein Rassam wrote.
OPINION & ANALYSIS
One of the Obama administration's biggest diplomatic
ambitions was to establish better relations with Iran, a nation with
which the United States has been at odds since the fall of the shah
and the rise of a powerful theocratic government in Tehran in 1979.
The most important manifestation of that effort was a deal negotiated
by the administration and its allies under which Iran agreed to curb
its nuclear program in exchange for the lifting of economic
sanctions. That momentary thaw, if not the agreement itself, now
seems at risk. Partly this is a result of Iran's barely-concealed
territorial and political ambitions, which are rightly of concern in
Washington. Partly it is a result of President Trump's fondness for
Saudi Arabia, a Sunni Muslim nation, which has led him to demonize
Iran, a Shiite nation and the Saudis' chief rival for regional
influence. A potential flashpoint is looming in Syria. There, Iran
and the United States share a common goal of defeating the Islamic
State. But they have competing interests, which are growing even as
the fight against ISIS seems to be going well and indeed may be
approaching the endgame.
Hailed as a diplomatic breakthrough at its signing in
July 2015, Iran's nuclear agreement with leading members of the
international community-formally known as the Joint Comprehensive
Plan of Action (JCPOA)-has achieved some notable short-term
successes, many in Iran's favor. Most, not all, of Iran's nuclear
activities are either frozen or highly circumscribed. In exchange,
Iran is reaping the benefit of receipt of billions of dollars in
previously frozen assets as well as a return to international
commerce where Europe and China, among others, are seeking to
invigorate trade and investment with the theocratic regime. This will
be a boon for Iran's chronically mismanaged and struggling economy.
The bad news is that it is misleading to conclude that Iran's nuclear
ambitions have been shuttered or that those ambitions will no longer
pose a threat to the security and stability of the Middle East or
beyond. This is because the agreement has finite limits, ranging from
10 years to 15 years depending on the issue.
In the past five weeks, U.S. forces in Syria have struck
directly at the Assad regime and its allies in Syria no less than
four times. On May 18, U.S. warplanes struck regime and allied
militia forces that breached a 34-mile exclusion zone around a U.S.
outpost in southeastern Syria. Then on June 8 and June 20, the United
States shot down Iranian-made drones as they approached the outpost.
But the most dramatic event so far was the June 18 downing of a
Syrian air force Su-22 by a U.S. Navy F/A-18 Super Hornet. This took
place after regime forces attacked a town held by the U.S.-aligned
Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) near Tabqa, in northern Syria. The
Su-22 dropped bombs near the SDF fighters, ignored U.S. warnings, and
was then shot down.
In "Iran's Next Supreme Leader" (May/June
2017), Sanam Vakil and Hossein Rassam convincingly argue that the
death of Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, will mark a
turning point in the Islamic Republic. They are right that Khamenei
desperately wants a smooth transition and is insisting that someone
personally and ideologically close to him take over the helm once he
dies. But Vakil and Rassam err when they contend that "the deep
state"-defined as "an intricate security, intelligence, and
economic superstructure composed of underlings who are fiercely loyal
to him"-will "safeguard the Islamic Republic long after he
is gone." The problem with this argument is that the deep state
is hardly invincible, and those in the regime who are aching for
reform, including President Hassan Rouhani and his circle, are hardly
impotent. In fact, the reformists consider Khamenei's departure a
golden opportunity to steer the regime in a new direction, and they
appear ready for battle.
The days of ISIS are numbered and voices are heard about
the entire region being forced into a far more disastrous conflict.
Various parties, mainly the US and Iran, have begun jostling, seeking
to inject their influence onto what the future holds for Syria. As Iran
has also wreaked havoc in Iraq and Yemen, concerns are rallying on
Tehran going the distance to pull the US full-scale into the Syria
inferno. Such a mentality results from misunderstanding the nature of
what is known as the Iranian regime. After establishing a foothold in
the strategic town of al-Tanf near the Iraq-Jordan-Syria border, US
forces designated a buffer zone to provide protection for their own
troops and resources, alongside their allies of anti-Assad opposition
rebels.
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