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TOP STORIES
President Donald Trump decided against killing off the
Iran nuclear deal in a day-one spectacular. It may face a lingering
death instead. Trump's administration sends out mixed signals on many
issues, but on the need for a tougher line against Iran, it speaks
with one voice. And words have been accompanied by action. In Syria,
the U.S. military is directly clashing with Iranian allies. In Saudi
Arabia, Trump performed a sword-dance with Iran's bitterest foes. In
the Senate, new sanctions on the Islamic Republic sailed through with
near-unanimous approval. The 2015 accord reined in Iran's nuclear
program, and offered the Islamic Republic a route back to the
mainstream of the world economy. It was the fruit of many years of
work by many governments. Its breakdown would likely add to
turbulence in the Middle East, and impose new strains on America's
ties with Europe. Yet there's a serious risk that the deal could
unravel, according to one former U.S. official who was intimately
involved.
Iran used a Star of David as a target for a missile test
last year, the Israeli ambassador to the United Nations revealed
Wednesday. Ambassador Danny Danon shared a startling satellite image
of the Jewish and Israeli symbol with members of the UN Security
Council, the Jerusalem Post reported. "This use of the Star of
David as target practice is hateful and unacceptable," Danon
told the Council. "This missile test not only violates Security
Council resolutions but also proves beyond doubt, once again, the
true intentions of Iran to target Israel." The Star of David was
used as a target for a mid-range Qiam ballistic missile test in
December, according to a statement from the Permanent Mission of
Israel to the UN.
Lebanon seems to be having a flag sale. Iranian flags,
Hezbollah, UN, Spanish, Palestinian flags. They are all flying
provocatively along the border with the northern Israeli community of
Metulla. Meters from the fence that separates the countries, not far
from the site of a 1985 terrorist attack, Hezbollah has festooned the
roads with signs of its presence. It's purposely done so Israeli
residents can see the flags and the billboards next to them. In
Metulla there is a memorial for the 12 Israeli soldiers killed in the
March 10, 1985, suicide bombing, while just across the border a huge
billboard celebrates the massacre.
IRAN NUCLEAR DEAL
The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has
sufficient cause to reopen its investigation into the possible
military dimensions (PMD) of Iran's nuclear research, the agency's
former deputy director told Fox News on Sunday. Although the IAEA
made a "political" decision in December 2015 to end its
investigation into the PMD of Iran's nuclear research, unresolved
issues and new revelations-including fresh allegations that Iran is
working with North Korea on its ballistic missile program-provide
sufficient reasons for the IAEA to reopen the PMD investigation, Olli
Heinonen told Fox's James Rosen. While Heinonen said that Iran is not
necessarily in violation of the nuclear deal, formally known as the
Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), "the IAEA cannot
prove that everything is okay and all nuclear material is under IAEA
verification scheme," he added.
U.S.-IRAN RELATIONS
Once expunged from its official history, documents
outlining the U.S.-backed 1953 coup in Iran have been quietly
published by the State Department, offering a new glimpse at an
operation that ultimately pushed the country toward its Islamic
Revolution and hostility with the West. The CIA's role in the coup,
which toppled Prime Minister Mohammed Mosaddegh and cemented the
control of the shah, was already well-known by the time the State
Department offered its first compendium on the era in 1989. But any
trace of American involvement in the putsch had been wiped from the report,
causing historians to call it a fraud. The papers released this month
show U.S. fears over the spread of communism, as well as the British
desire to regain access to Iran's oil industry, which had been
nationalized by Mosaddegh. It also offers a cautionary tale about the
limits of American power as a new U.S. president long suspicious of
Iran weighs the landmark nuclear deal with Tehran reached under his
predecessor.
CONGRESSIONAL ACTION
An overwhelmingly bipartisan Senate sanctions bill
targeting Russia and Iran hit a new snag Wednesday, as Democrats
sought assurances that House Republicans will not water it down after
what the GOP has billed as a simple fix. Senior senators have
negotiated with their counterparts across the Capitol since the
sanctions bill, passed by the Senate on a 98-2 vote, ran into a
constitutional objection in the House last week. But when Democrats -
aware that the White House is urging House Republicans to make the
sanctions bill more friendly to President Donald Trump - asked the GOP
to commit to no new, significant changes in the House, that
commitment didn't arrive, according to a senior Senate Democratic
aide Senate Foreign Relations Chairman Bob Corker (R-Tenn.), a leader
in the bicameral sanctions talks, declared Democrats' response
"self-defeating" and "actually accommodating
Russia" by furthering the delay in the legislation
OPINION & ANALYSIS
In the violent Middle East, Lebanon looks like a
miracle. A mix of Christians and Sunni and Shiite Muslims who have
fought a brutal civil war, and have weathered aggressive outside
interference, Lebanon is still puttering along as a semifunctioning
democracy. To encourage and strengthen the Lebanese Armed Forces, the
U.S. has given more than $1 billion over the last decade. But looks
are deceiving. In Lebanon, despite America's help, Iran has won. Step
back a few decades and remember the pitched battles of the Lebanese
civil war-Sunni vs. Shiite vs. Christian. The kidnapping and killing
of countless innocents; the murder of the CIA station chief in
Beirut; and finally, the end of the civil war with the 1989 Taif
Accords, a rare Arab-led initiative, which dictated terms that
enabled weary Lebanese fighters to lay down their arms.
Israel is increasingly obsessed with a new strategic
threat-the possibility that eventually it may have to fight a
two-front, and even three-front, war against Iran and its proxies.
According to Chagai Tzuriel, director general of Israel's
intelligence ministry, Iran is now negotiating with Damascus to build
a base on the Mediterranean. He called Iran's effort to build a land
corridor and establish a permanent forward operating presence on the
sea the "most important strategic development in the
region." All the rest, he said, was "noise." A
corridor through Iraq that allows the Iranian regime to ship weapons
and soldiers directly from Iran to proxies in Syria and Lebanon would
be a strategic gain that puts Iran directly on two of Israel's four
borders. The most promising route for such a corridor, experts say,
is from Iran's border through southeastern Syria near Jordan's border
at a town called At-Tanf, where Iranian-backed Shiite forces and the
Syrian army have been battling American-trained and -supported Syrian
rebels.
Recent weeks have witnessed a growing competition in
eastern Syria between U.S.-backed forces and Iranian-led militias,
putting the two rival countries on a collision course. To secure a
"land corridor" between its eastern border and the
Mediterranean, Tehran and its proxies have been willing to confront
U.S. forces directly, sending drones and jets to target coalition
soldiers in southeastern and northeastern Syria. While the shooting
down of these aircraft by U.S. jets may give the illusion of
decisiveness on the part of Washington, the new U.S. administration
is in fact showing a lack of strategy, likely stemming from its
inability to decide just how far it is willing to go to stem Iranian
expansionism
In Syria, the U.S. is directing the lion's share of its
energy toward defeating the Islamic State (ISIS) rather than containing
Iran. Reflecting that reality, the caliphate's days on the physical
battlefield are numbered, with U.S.-backed forces assaulting their de
facto capital in Raqqa. As a result, the other major powers and
patrons involved in the Syrian cauldron are redeploying their forces
as they vie for political, economic, or military influence over its
future. The situation brings into focus the other fronts opening up
that have far more to do with Iran than with ISIS. Ready or not, the
race is on in the south and east, and how those upcoming battles play
out will likely shape the balance of power in the region. It is in
this unfolding context that one should view the recent White House
warning to Bashar al-Assad over the use of chemical weapons. It comes
amid a noticeable escalation in Syria involving pro-Assad regime
attacks against U.S.-coalition positions in the north and south,
America's downing of a Syrian fighter jet and several Iranian drones,
and Iran's firing of ballistic missiles into eastern Syria.
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