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TOP STORIES
Trump administration officials, anticipating the defeat
of the Islamic State in its de facto Syrian capital of Raqqa, are
planning for what they see as the next stage of the war, a complex
fight that will bring them into direct conflict with Syrian
government and Iranian forces contesting control of a vast desert
stretch in the eastern part of the country. To some extent, that
clash has already begun. Unprecedented recent U.S. strikes against
regime and Iranian-backed militia forces have been intended as
warnings to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and Tehran that they
will not be allowed to confront or impede the Americans and their
local proxy forces. As regime and militia forces have begun advancing
eastward, senior White House officials have been pushing the Pentagon
to establish outposts in the desert region. The goal would be to
prevent a Syrian or Iranian military presence that would interfere
with the U.S. military's ability to break the Islamic State's hold on
the Euphrates River valley south of Raqqa and into Iraq - a sparsely
populated area where the militants could regroup and continue to plan
terrorist operations against the West.
Writing in the Wall Street Journal on Monday, former US
Sens. Joseph Lieberman, I-Conn., and Mark Kirk, R-Ill, called for
reimposing FATF countermeasures against Iran. Lieberman chairs the
anti-deal lobby group United Against Nuclear Iran, while Kirk is an
adviser to the group. "Iran remains the world's leading state-sponsor
of terrorism [and] has done little to enact the anti-money laundering
policies requested by the FATF," their op-ed states. "Over
the past year, Iran has continued to provide money, weapons, training
and troops to the cause of terrorism throughout the Middle East. From
the Houthis in Yemen to propping up Bashar [al-]Assad's forces in
Syria, Hezbollah in Lebanon and supporting Shiite militias in Iraq,
there's no shortage of examples of Iranian influence over some of the
most violent groups in the world." While Iran has long provided
support to militant organizations on the US State Department's list
of terrorist organizations, the money it gives generally does not go
through banks.
The United Nations secretary general appears to have
softened his predecessor's criticism of Iran last year over its
missile tests, a volatile issue in Iran's relationships with other
powers, including Israel and the United States. The milder language
is contained in a report by the secretary general, António Guterres,
to the United Nations Security Council that has not yet been
released. A softening of the criticism would be significant partly
because the United States has called Iran's missile tests
unacceptable. The Trump administration imposed sanctions on Iran in
February and May in response to what it described as "bad
behavior" with respect to the tests. Mr. Guterres's relatively
mild language in a passage of the report concerning those tests could
complicate any American-led effort to further penalize Iran for them
at the United Nations. A copy of the report, dated June 14, was seen
by The New York Times on Wednesday.
NUCLEAR & BALLISTIC MISSILE PROGRAM
In the hours after Iran launched ballistic missiles at
Islamic State targets in Syria on June 18, Western intelligence
sources guessed that these were Shahab-3 medium-range ballistic
missiles. The following day, this assessment changed to Zulfiqar
ballistic missiles instead. These relatively sophisticated missiles
have a maximum range of 700 kilometers (435 miles), are equipped with
independent navigation systems and are able to adjust trajectory in
the air. Zulfiqar solid-fuel propellant rockets are produced by the
Iranian military industry. From Israel's viewpoint, the missiles that
Iran launched June 18 failed to hit their target, but demonstrated
the missile construction and launching capacities developed by Iran.
These kinds of missiles constitute one of the greatest nightmares
known to Israeli security systems. Should Hezbollah acquire them, for
instance, they could be used to target Israeli air force bases and
other strategic targets as well.
Iran said it won't hesitate to shore up its missile
capability and presses ahead with the program in the future, its
government spokesman said on Tuesday. "As explicitly stipulated
by president, the government backs all missile activities of the
Guards (IRGC) and (other) armed forces," Mohammad Bagher Nobakht
told a press conference in Tehran. "The government sees no cap
to boosting defense and missile capability, and backs up missile
launches and research," he added. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary
Guards Corps (IRGC) fired missiles at Islamic State's major strongholds
in eastern Syria, killing at least 50 ISIS militants, what Nobakht
acclaimed as "a symbol of national clout." The IRGC had
vowed revenge for the Tehran terrorist attacks which killed 18 people
and accused Saudi Arabia and the U.S. of being indirectly behind the
raids. Backing the missile operation, Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad
Zarif tweeted: "Iran's missile capability protects its citizens
in lawful self-defense & advances common global fight to
eradicate ISIS and extremist terror."
U.S.-IRAN RELATIONS
A senior Iranian leader and confidant of the Islamic
Republic's president is threatening to "depose" President
Donald Trump if he continues his policy of confronting Iran and its
terror proxy groups in the Middle East, according to recent comments
that come as Iranian military leaders threaten missile strikes on
U.S. forces and bases in the region. Mostafa Tajzadeh, a leading
Iranian politician and ally to President Hassan Rouhani, claimed this
week that the Trump administration is too "fragile" to
confront Iran and that if U.S. officials do "anything unwise
against Iran," the Islamic Republic will see that Trump is
"deposed," according to Farsi-language comments
independently translated for the Washington Free Beacon.
The threats come as Iranian politicians and military leaders amp up
their rhetoric against the Trump administration following a series of
strikes in Syria on Iranian-backed forces bolstering embattled
President Bashar al-Assad.
Saudi Arabia's new crown prince and likely next king
shares U.S. President Donald Trump's hawkish view of Iran, but a more
confrontational approach toward Tehran carries a risk of escalation
in an unstable region, current and former U.S. officials said. Iran
will almost certainly respond to a more aggressive posture by the
United States and its chief Sunni Arab ally in battlefields where
Riyadh and Tehran are engaged in a regional tussle for influence.
Saudi King Salman made his son Mohammed bin Salman next in line to
the throne on Wednesday, handing the 31-year-old sweeping powers, in
a succession shake-up. Prince Mohammed, widely referred to as
"MbS," has ruled out any dialogue with arch rival Iran and
pledged to protect his conservative kingdom from what he called
Tehran's efforts to dominate the Muslim world. In the first meeting
between Trump and MbS at the White House in March, the two leaders
noted the importance of "confronting Iran's destabilizing
regional activities." But that could have unintended
consequences, said some current and former U.S. administration
officials.
CONGRESSIONAL ACTION
House Republicans are stalling a hugely popular bill to
slap Iran and Russia with economic sanctions over a procedural issue
they're blaming the Senate for creating. Speaking to reporters
Wednesday, Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy says "the problem is
the Senate screwed up." At issue is a constitutional requirement
that legislation involving revenue originate in the House. The
sanctions bill was crafted by the Senate, which passed the measure
overwhelmingly last week and then sent it to the House for action.
McCarthy says the Senate can repair the bill or the House can write
its own sanctions legislation. He didn't provide a timetable for
either pathway. Democratic lawmakers and aides are mystified over the
delay. They fear the House is seeking to water the bill down at the
Trump administration's behest.
SANCTIONS RELIEF
Iran has begun exporting gas to Iraq, an Iranian
official told the state-run Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA) on
Wednesday, after a several years of delays. The neighbors, both
members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries,
initially signed a deal in 2013 for Iran to supply Iraqi power
stations, but officials in the past blamed poor security in Iraq for
hampering implementation. Exports had started at approximately 7
million cubic meters per day and would eventually reach up to 35 million
cubic meters per day, Amir Hossein Zamaninia, the deputy oil minister
for trade and international affairs, told IRNA. Iran signed two
contracts to export gas, one for the Iraqi capital Baghdad and the
other for southern Iraqi city of Basra, IRNA reported. Iran, which
has huge gas reserves alongside its oil resources, exports small
amounts of gas to Turkey but production has struggled to keep pace
with rising domestic consumption.
OPEC members are considering further oil output cuts but
should wait until the effect of the current reduced level of
production is made clear, Iran said on Wednesday, hinting at possible
further OPEC action after oil sank to a seven-month low. OPEC and
allied outside producers agreed on May 25 to extend an existing
supply cut into 2018, but oil has declined sharply since on rising
production from the United States and Nigeria and Libya, two OPEC
members exempt from cutting output. "We are in discussions
with OPEC members to prepare ourselves for a new decision,"
Iranian oil minister Bijan Zanganeh said after a cabinet meeting,
according to the website for the Islamic Republic of Iran
Broadcasting (IRIB). "But making decisions in this
organization is very difficult because any decision will mean
production cuts for the members." The reason for the discussion
is an increase in the levels of United States production which
members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries had
not predicted, Zanganeh said.
Iran's Airtour Airlines has signed a memorandum of
understanding (MoU) for 45 Airbus A320neo aircraft, Airbus said on
Thursday, in a deal unveiled at the Paris Airshow. Iran has stepped
up its orders of planes after international sanctions against Iran
were lifted in return for curbs on the country's nuclear activities.
The Airtour Airlines deal follows a similar one with Iranian airline
Zagros that was also announced at the Paris Airshow.
SYRIA CONFLICT
Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei ordered
weekend missile strikes on Islamic State targets in Syria,
Revolutionary Guards said, contradicting a previous report that they
were authorised by the country's security council. The Guards fired
six mid-range surface to surface missiles from western Iran into
Syria's Deir al Zour province on Sunday night, the first attack of
its kind carried out by the Islamic Republic in years. The Guards
statement, published on Wednesday by Sepah News, ran counter to a
statement by President Hassan Rouhani who said earlier that the
strikes were authorised by the Supreme National Security Council,
which includes the heads of the three branches of government as well
as the head of the Guards and other ministers. Senior Guard
commanders said on Monday that the missile strikes were intended to
send a message to "terrorists" who carried out attacks in
Tehran two weeks ago as well as their regional and international
supporters, a reference to Saudi Arabia and the United States.
Khamenei's personal directive for the missile strikes, as reported by
the Guards, highlighted their symbolic importance.
MILITARY MATTERS
Pakistan's foreign ministry has confirmed the country's
air force shot down an unmanned Iranian drone in southwestern
Baluchistan province. The Pakistani Air Force initially declined
comment, after reports emerged on Tuesday that one of its jets shot
down the drone. But on Wednesday, foreign ministry spokesman, Nafees
Zakaria, released a statement on the matter. He says the drone was
downed on Monday as it flew up to 4 kilometers, or 2.5 miles, inside
Pakistani territory, in the Panjgur sector close to the
Pakistani-Iranian border. Zakaria says Pakistani authorities have
shared the information with Iran about striking down the drone. Iran
has expressed concern over militants operating along the Pakistani
border and warned that the country was willing to strike militants
inside Pakistan - remarks that drew strong protests from Islamabad.
DOMESTIC POLITICS
Tensions are mounting between Iran's supreme leader and
the country's president after the latter's landslide victory in last
month's election. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, 78, has sharpened his
criticism of the reformist president, Hassan Rouhani, including
humiliating him in a meeting of the country's most senior officials.
A hardliner keen to preserve his legacy, Khamenei is believed
to have tacitly backed Ebrahim Raisi, Rouhani's rival, in the election.
The president, who increased his mandate by 5m votes when he won his
second term, fired back this week by saying that the political
legitimacy of a religious leader is determined by the "people's
will and invitation" - comments that supporters of Khamenei,
whose position as supreme leader is a lifelong appointment, have
received with disdain. Clerics sympathetic to Khamenei argue that the
legitimacy of the leader, or the rule of the Islamic jurist (Velayat-e-Faghih)
is divine.
OPINION & ANALYSIS
Iran's missile program has accelerated since the signing
of the nuclear agreement between Tehran and world powers in 2015, a
new report by the National Council of Resistance of Iran revealed.
According to NCRI's findings, which were made public at a press
conference held at the council's Washington office on Tuesday, the
scope of Iran's missile program is much more extensive than was
previously thought. The report indicates that the Revolutionary
Guards, which is in charge of Iran's ballistic missile program, has
been carrying out operations at 42 locations, 12 of which were
previously unknown. One of the reported missile complexes is tied to
SPND, the organization in charge of pursuing the building of nuclear
bombs. The information disclosed by the NCRI were obtained by the
People's Mojahedin of Iran (PMOI/MEK), the group that first revealed
Iran's illicit nuclear program. In an interview with Fox News,
Alireza Jafarzadeh, deputy director of the NCRI's U.S. office, said,
"The findings show the first full picture of the missile program
of the Iranian regime, which is very extensive and costly. It also
shows a close tie between the nuclear weapons program and the missile
program."
Since the June 7 terrorist attacks in Tehran, the
Iranian government has made dozens of arrests and highlighted the
fact that ISIS claimed responsibility. The country's leaders have
driven the narrative that Iran is yet another victim of this global
terrorist network - even going so far as to launch missiles targeting
ISIS operations in Syria. But it is increasingly apparent that, while
outside terrorists may have played a role, the government's focus on
their involvement hides a more complex truth, with significant
implications for U.S. policy. Through recent news reports we've
learned that those rounded-up as part of the attacks are all members
of the Kurdish and Baluch ethnic minorities. The conflict with Iran's
Kurdish and Baluch minorities is not new: Tehran has been battling
for close to a decade a much larger insurgency with both groups,
without any evidence of direct links to ISIS. Most recently, on the
eve of the Tehran attacks, a Kurdish nationalist group - with no
global terrorist connections - killed two Iranian border guards near
the city of Urmiya.
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