Top Stories
AP:
"The Obama administration on Friday extended waivers of U.S.
sanctions it has granted to major Asian petroleum consumers, including
China, India and South Korea, for reducing their imports of Iranian oil.
Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton announced the extensions in a
statement. In addition to China, India and South Korea, the waivers will
apply to Malaysia, Singapore, South Africa, Sri Lanka, Turkey and Taiwan.
All nine were originally granted six-month renewable exemptions from the
sanctions in June. The exemptions mean that banks and other financial
institutions based in those places will not be hit with penalties under
U.S. law enacted as a way of pressuring Iran to come clean about its
nuclear program. A total of 20 countries and Taiwan have been granted the
waivers. The others - Belgium, Britain, the Czech Republic, France,
Germany, Greece, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, Spain and Japan - will
come up for review in March. The administration says the exemptions are a
sign that pressure on Iran is increasing. In her statement, Clinton said
Iran's oil production fell by a million barrels per day in September and
October, compared to the same period in 2011. 'This has reduced Iran's
export volumes and oil revenues, which fund not only the nuclear program
but its support for terror and destabilizing actions in the region,' she
said. 'The message to the Iranian regime from the international community
is clear: take concrete actions to satisfy the concerns of the
international community through negotiations with the (five permanent
members of the U.N. Security Council and Germany), or face increasing
isolation and pressure.'" http://t.uani.com/TLIZnX
Reuters:
"At least seven companies from China, India, South Korea and South
Africa continued to have investments in Iran's oil and gas sectors in
2012 even as Tehran came under international scrutiny for its nuclear
ambitions, a U.S. government watchdog said on Friday. A new U.S. law
signed in August gave the Obama administration the authority to sanction
firms that help Iran develop its energy resources, a key source of
revenue for the country. For a report to Congress required under that
August law, the U.S. Government Accountability Office reviewed publicly
available reports and data, and contacted the companies involved to check
whether they have stepped back from Iran... Chinese activity included
Sinopec's 51 percent stake in Iran's Yadavaran oil field, and China
National Petroleum Corp's interest in a project to develop the Azadegan
field, the GAO said. South Korea's Daelim Industrial Co is helping
develop the South Pars gas fields and is also involved in a liquefied
natural gas project at Tombak, the report said. Three Indian companies
with stakes in the Farsi Block gas field -- Indian Oil Corp Ltd, ONGC
Videsh Ltd and Oil India Ltd -- told the GAO that their exploration
service contracts had expired and they had no plans to pursue further
work on the project. South Africa's Sasol has been active in a joint
venture in Iran but recently stated it is trying to divest, the GAO said.
There were another eight companies from China, Malaysia, India, Croatia
and Venezuela whose recent involvement in Iran was difficult to confirm,
the GAO said. The companies did not all respond to the GAO's
questions." http://t.uani.com/YOT5vE
Reuters:
"An internal report for the U.S. Congress has concluded that Iran
probably is no longer on track, if it ever was, to having an
ocean-crossing missile as soon as 2015. The study casts doubt on a view
long held by U.S. intelligence agencies that Iran could be able to
test-fly by 2015 an intercontinental ballistic missile, or ICBM, if it
receives 'sufficient foreign assistance.' 'It is increasingly uncertain
whether Iran will be able to achieve an ICBM capability by 2015,' said
the report by the non-partisan Congressional Research Service, which
works exclusively for lawmakers. Iran does not appear to be receiving as
much help as would likely be necessary, notably from China or Russia, to
reach that goal, according to the 66-page report dated Thursday. It is
also increasingly tough for Tehran to obtain certain critical components
and materials because of international sanctions related to its disputed
nuclear program." http://t.uani.com/YOPnlX
Nuclear
Program
Chosun Ilbo: "The U.S. and South
Korea believe Iranian missile experts secretly entered North Korea
recently and are staying near the North's rocket launch pad in
Tongchang-ri. 'Identifiable cars have been spotted traveling back and
forth from the quarters to the missile launch site,' a government source
here said. 'We believe they're carrying Iranian experts.' North Korea
apparently invited Iranian missile experts to help with technical
problems after the previous rocket launch in April failed. The rocket
launches are widely seen as a cover to test long-range ballistic missile
technology. UPI said experts from Iran's Shahid Hemmat Industrial Group,
which developed the Shahab-3 intercontinental ballistic missile, will be
present at the North Korean launch. 'The missile connection between North
Korea and Iran, which started in the 1980s, appears to be more extensive
than expected,' said a government official here." http://t.uani.com/YSAY8g
Reuters:
"U.N. nuclear inspectors will press Iran this week for a long-sought
green light to visit a key military site, although suspected clean-up
work may make it difficult to find evidence of any illicit atomic bomb
research there. Thursday's talks in Tehran could provide clues as to
whether the Islamic state may now be more willing to start addressing
growing international concerns over its disputed atomic activity
following U.S. President Barack Obama's re-election last month... But
Western diplomats are not optimistic about the chances of a breakthrough
in the new discussions in the Iranian capital, after a series of meetings
between Iran and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) this year
failed to make headway." http://t.uani.com/YTDxad
Sanctions
Politico:
"Susan Rice, the U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations, has been under
fire recently for, among other things, her investments in energy
companies doing business in Iran, per a Washington Post story last week.
But Rice also has had a stake in Ericsson, the Swedish mobile network
equipment maker that has itself been in the spotlight for its growing
business dealings in Iran. According to a Reuters report, Ericsson has
been helping Iranian mobile telecom operators as part of long-term
contracts, including one that involves an expansion project for Mobile
Communications Inc. of Iran, the country's largest mobile network
provider. Iranian human rights groups say the Iranian mobile phone
network is used to track and monitor dissidents and United Against
Nuclear Iran has called for Ericsson to end its business relations with MTN
Irancell, the country's second-largest mobile network firm." http://t.uani.com/TNKioN
Reuters:
"South Korean refiners will cut imports of Iranian crude during the
six months to May by about a fifth from a year earlier, to avoid
sanctions by Washington, government and industry sources told Reuters on
Monday. Last week the United States granted 180-day waivers on Iran
sanctions to China, India, South Korea and some other countries after
they cut oil purchases from the Islamic Republic. 'The cut in next year's
imports is expected to be by about 20 percent year on year,' an industry
source who has direct knowledge of the matter told Reuters. South Korea,
the world's fifth largest importer of crude, and one of Iran's biggest
oil customers, gave the assurance on the size of the cuts in talks with
the United States following discussions with Korean refiners, the sources
said. Such a cut would imply South Korean imports of about 147,814
barrels per day (bpd) over the period to next May, since the country
imported 184,767 bpd of Iranian crude from December 2011 to May
2012." http://t.uani.com/YTDLy3
Bloomberg:
"HSBC Holdings Plc and Standard Chartered Plc may settle U.S.
charges involving money-laundering violations and dollar-clearing
transactions on behalf of Iranian clients as soon as next week, two
people familiar with the negotiations said. The agencies involved in the
settlements include the U.S. Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control,
the Federal Reserve, the Justice Department and the New York District
Attorney's office, according to the people, who asked not to be
identified because negotiations are still under way. HSBC announced last
month that it had added an $800 million provision to an existing $700
million reserve to cover the costs of a potential settlement, and warned
investors that the final payment could 'significantly' exceed the $1.5
billion total. A Senate committee said in July that failures in London-
based HSBC's money-laundering controls allowed terrorists and drug
cartels access to the U.S. financial system." http://t.uani.com/VFgD4n
FT:
"A planned visit to Tehran by Asif Ali Zardari, Pakistan's
president, to seal a $1.5bn gas pipeline deal to alleviate the country's
critical energy shortage was unexpectedly cancelled at the weekend amid
mounting US objections to the contract. Iran has offered Pakistan
hundreds of millions of dollars to finance the long-delayed gas pipeline,
according to both governments. An increasingly desperate Pakistan,
however, is struggling to overcome strong opposition to the project from
its US ally, which has applied economic sanctions against Tehran over
Iran's suspected nuclear weapons programme." http://t.uani.com/VtJQtb
FT:
"When Nasser, an Afghan labourer, illegally crossed the border to
Iran to work last summer, he hoped to support his family and pay off his
debts. But Nasser quickly realised that he had miscalculated, as Iran's
economy had changed a lot compared with a year ago when he returned to
his home village near Mazar-e Sharif, northern Afghanistan, to get
married. Iran's national currency, the rial, has fallen more than 35 per
cent this year because of international sanctions imposed on Iran over
its nuclear programme. The consequent rise in consumer prices - which is
officially put at about 25 per cent but is believed to be far higher -
has made Iran's job market far less profitable for Afghans." http://t.uani.com/UPDWWL
AP:
"A conservative Iranian news website says the number of
manufacturing companies in the country facing financial crisis has
increased four-fold over the past four years to nearly 1,600. The Monday
report by tasnimnews.com reflects the impact of Western sanctions against
Iran over its disputed nuclear program. The website says the report has
been drawn up by a government department but didn't elaborate." http://t.uani.com/12h4mmo
Syrian Uprising
NYT:
"When Syria's agricultural minister, Subhi Ahmad al-Abdullah,
arrived in the Iranian capital for a visit last week, everybody involved
stuck to a well-worn script... The unrest in Syria did not go unmentioned
in the meetings, which were widely reported by Iranian state media.
Iran's vice president, Mohammad-Reza Rahimi, said Iran was confident of
victory for the Syrian government forces, who, he said, were engaged in
'sporadic fights with terrorists sent by regional countries.' The upbeat
ceremonies surrounding Mr. Abdullah's visit illustrate how Iranian
leaders perceive the bloody conflict that has engulfed their main ally in
the Arabic world. While former Iranian diplomats, academics and analysts
increasingly warn that President Bashar al-Assad's government is on the
brink of collapse, the country's highest leaders insist the conflict is
manageable and ultimately will be resolved to Iran's advantage." http://t.uani.com/QS12vq
Ya Libnan:
"Kuwaiti daily Al-Seyassah reported on Thursday that its sources in
Iraq say that Syrian President Bashar Assad's inner circle is engaged in
'intensive debate' between those who advocate using chemical weapons as a
last resort and those who warn of the dangers of such a step. The debate
comes amid growing Western fears that a desperate Assad could turn to
chemical weapons as rebels close in on Damascus... Mamlouk, Qudsiya and
Zaitoun have proposed that special units of Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps,
rather than the Syrian Army, be asked to carry out security leaders'
orders to use chemical weapons, the source said." http://t.uani.com/SRjRyN
Regional
Meddling
Reuters:
"Yemen's security chief has told Iran to stop training and funding
Shi'ite Muslim rebels who, along with al Qaeda-backed Islamists and
southern separatists, are staging one of three insurgencies threatening
to pull the chaotic country apart... Ahmadi accused Tehran of backing the
Houthi rebels who operate in northern Yemen near the border with Saudi
Arabia - the world's top oil exporter which is competing with Shi'ite
Iran for regional influence. 'Iran seized a chance to broaden the
conflict to play a certain role,' he said. 'We have no hostility to Iran;
all we ask is that they don't interfere.'" http://t.uani.com/12gvIt3
Reuters:
"A second visit by Iranian warships to Sudan in little over a month
risks widening divisions inside the African country's government and
upsetting its Gulf Arab donors. Two Iranian navy ships also visited in
October, days after Sudan accused Israel of bombing a weapons factory in
the capital Khartoum. Israel declined to comment on the alleged attack
but has accused Sudan of smuggling weapons to the Gaza Strip, which is
ruled by the Iranian-allied Palestinian movement Hamas. Sudanese
officials described the docking of Iran's 23th fleet - destroyer Jamaran
and logistics ship Bushehr - for three days in Port Sudan on Saturday as
a routine refueling stop." http://t.uani.com/TKsxUX
Foreign Affairs
AFP:
"Hundreds of angry demonstrators tried to storm the Iranian
consulate in the western Afghan city of Herat on Sunday in protest at the
alleged killing of Afghan immigrants by Iranian security forces. The
200-strong crowd threw rocks and broke consulate windows before security
forces drove them back by firing warning shots into the air, an AFP
correspondent at the scene said. The crowd claimed 13 Afghans who had
crossed the border into Iran were seized and later shot dead by Iranian
security forces about three months ago. 'Over the past several months we
have been demanding the Iranians return the bodies of our relatives but
they are not returning them,' one protester told AFP. Protesters shouted
slogans against Iran and its President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and said they
would 'support the United States if it invades Iran.'" http://t.uani.com/VYQeL6
Human Rights
Deutsche Welle:
"Human rights organizations are outraged by ever-increasing
executions of dissidents, bloggers and activists in Iran. In the world's
most execution-prone country, even misdemeanors draw the death penalty.
The human rights situation in Iran has deteriorated over the last few
months, according to a UN report. Indeed, news about the hanging of ten
individuals at the end of October in a Teheran prison due to charges of
drug trafficking drew criticism from around the world. The hangings were
in violation of international law, which dictates that the death penalty
be limited to only the 'most serious felonies.' That was clearly not the
case in Teheran. There are also serious doubts regarding the fairness of
the trial against the accused, says the report by the UN Commission on
Human Right (UNCHR). London-based human rights organization Amnesty
International called the executions a 'state killing-spree,' noting that
344 people have been executed in Iran since March. UN special
correspondent Ahmad Shaheed confirmed Amnesty's numbers in his latest
Iran report from the end of October. More than 300 executions have taken
place since the beginning of 2012, he says. That number was 670 in 2011,
ranking Iran as the country with the most executions per capita in the
world." http://t.uani.com/TM5n0j
Domestic
Politics
AFP:
"Iran has launched its own video-sharing website to compete against
Google's popular YouTube whose content is deemed inappropriate by the
Islamic regime, the state television reported on Sunday. The website (http://www.mehr.ir) called 'Mehr', meaning
affection in Farsi, aims to attract Persian-speaking users and also
promote Iranian culture, according to its About Us page. 'From now on,
people can upload their short films on the website and access (IRIB)
produced material,' said IRIB deputy chief Lotfollah Siahkali. A Facebook
page dedicated to Mehr is providing links to some of its content, including
music clips produced in Iran. Iran has consistently censored YouTube
since mid-2009, in the wake of the disputed elections that returned
President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad to power. It has also been trying to stop
its population accessing a number of foreign websites authorities see as
undermining the Islamic regime, including popular social networking sites
Facebook and Twitter, as well as the online pages of many Western media
outlets, blogs, and pornographic hubs." http://t.uani.com/TLICJS
Opinion & Analysis
UANI Advisory
Board Member Graham Allison & Shai Feldman in The National Interest:
"The Obama administration and the Netanyahu government were largely
on the same page during the Gaza crisis, and the two country's leaders
seemed to be able to set aside their mutual animosity and distrust,
working together to defuse the crisis. But much greater turbulence in
their relations can be expected by the middle of next year when the
issues associated with Iran's nuclear project will likely reach another crescendo.
Around that time, a number of important developments will converge.
First, Iran will have made further progress with its nuclear program,
reducing the time that would be required to convert its 'nuclear weapon
capability' into actual weapons. On current trajectories, by next summer,
Iran could have enough 20 percent enriched uranium to reenrich into
material for one bomb in three months. Since Israel will understandably
feel more immediately threatened by such developments, its leaders will
react more nervously than their American counterparts. Meanwhile, the
Obama administration will likely make an effort to resolve the issue
diplomatically by engaging Iran for the first time in direct
negotiations. Leading a war-weary nation, Obama will undoubtedly attempt
to launch a heroic effort to resolve the nuclear dispute with Iran
through diplomacy. At a minimum, the talks will be necessary to
demonstrate that the United States has made every effort to avoid war.
Unconfirmed reports have recently surfaced that the two governments have
already agreed to hold such talks. But it remains unclear whether the
Iranian interlocutors in these pre-discussions were authorized by their
Supreme Leader to set a negotiations agenda. With sanctions having
increasingly devastating effects on the Iranian economy, Ali Khamenei may
be more willing to negotiate in the hope of easing them before they spur
disaffection and protests that could threaten his regime. Given these two
trajectories, the Obama administration can be expected to continue
pressuring Israel to refrain from attacking Iran's nuclear installations
as long as the diplomatic option holds some hope of success. But
Netanyahu has already expressed his fear that Iran will just use
negotiations to buy time, until its nuclear program is too far advanced
to be stopped even by the United States. Israel also worries that
Washington's eagerness to cut a deal may result in an agreement that
would include acceptance of some Iranian uranium-enrichment activities-a
possibility that Netanyahu regards as extremely dangerous. Such
turbulence will be compounded by the January 22 elections in Israel. The
announced alliance between Netanyahu's Likud and the even more right-wing
party of foreign minister Avigdor Lieberman has already indicated that
its campaign for the January elections will focus on the promise to end
Iran's nuclear program. If the alliance wins as anticipated, its leaders
will likely feel that they have a public mandate to do whatever it takes
to meet this objective... With this expected convergence of divergences,
what could be done to avoid a U.S.-Israeli rupture over the Iran
issue?" http://t.uani.com/Ua1gLp
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Eye on Iran is a periodic news summary from United Against
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