Monday, June 3, 2013

Eye on Iran: Candidates Air Grim Views of Iran's Economy










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Top Stories

WSJ: "The economy and foreign policy emerged as the top issues in Iran's June 14 presidential election with the eight candidates dedicating their first live televised debate on Friday to economic woes. The four-hour discussion exposed in a highly publicized way just how much Iran's economy has deteriorated under international sanctions on the country and mismanagement by the current government. Candidates shared grim facts with viewers: Most factories have been closed or are operating at 50% capacity; privatization has been sidelined in favor of giving security branches a bigger stake in the economy; 3,000 cargo ships are stranded because of sanctions; the government has borrowed from the central bank to compensate for its budget deficit; three million people are unemployed, including 800,000 college graduates. To many Iranians, none of these revelations were news. They see the impact of the faltering economy in their daily lives, but it was startling to hear candidates-who made it on the ballot only after vetting by the regime-so bluntly express the country's dire state." http://t.uani.com/15xZrjd

FT: "If it goes on like this, Iran's regime may be about to witness an embarrassingly low turnout in the upcoming presidential election. Ten days into the campaign for the June 14 vote, the eight candidates are struggling to create any buzz with their television campaigns and public speeches. And that, together with a decision to ban two high profile candidates from the election, means many ordinary Iranians are quietly planning to stay home on election day. 'I do not know anyone who is going to vote,' says Banafsheh, a 37-year-old housewife. The eight candidates took part in their first televised debate on Friday. But they often sounded the same notes on issues such as how to reduce the country's dependence on oil revenues as a way to avoid international sanctions and it was a performance unlikely to generate much enthusiasm." http://t.uani.com/1aVR9lG

Reuters: "Iran's first debate between candidates for the presidency degenerated into acrimony live on state television on Friday when, instead of discussing the economy, some of the hopefuls resorted to sniping over the questions and format. The testy exchange between the moderator and reformist Mohammad Reza Aref, moderate Hassan Rohani, and conservative Mohsen Rezaie was the subject of wide ridicule by Iranian viewers who had tuned in for the four-hour discussion... Yasmin Alem, a U.S.-based expert on Iran's electoral system, said Friday's debate showed that Iran's leadership had tried to introduce a less explosive format. 'After what came to pass in the heated 2009 debates, the leadership in Tehran has decided to dumb down the process to a point where it now borders on ridicule,' she said." http://t.uani.com/11dgRfZ
 
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Nuclear Program

Reuters: "The U.N. nuclear watchdog chief said on Monday talks with Iran have been 'going around in circles' - unusually blunt criticism pointing to rising tension over suspected nuclear arms research by Tehran that has increased fears of a new Middle East war. Yukiya Amano, director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, vented growing frustration at the lack of results in getting Iran to address suspicions of military dimensions to its atomic energy program. Tehran denies the accusations. In hard-hitting comments to the IAEA's 35-nation Board of Governors, he also said Iranian advances in building a heavy-water research reactor and in its uranium enrichment work were in 'clear contravention' of U.N. Security Council resolutions, dating to 2006, calling for a suspension in such activities. The IAEA has been trying since early 2012 to engage with the Islamic state over what the Vienna-based U.N. agency calls the 'possible military dimensions' to Iran's nuclear program." http://t.uani.com/16Dytuk

Reuters: "Iran aims to start a reactor next year which the West fears could arm an atomic bomb; Israel, which has bombed such construction sites around the Middle East before, may try to stop the plant being completed. The timetable for the planned start-up of the Arak heavy-water research plant is closely watched: Israeli and Western experts say any attacker would probably prefer to act before it becomes operational - to avoid generating radioactive fallout. The Islamic Republic says it will make isotopes for medical and agricultural use. But analysts say this type of facility can also produce plutonium for weapons if the spent fuel is reprocessed - something Iran says it has no intention of doing." http://t.uani.com/10LDWuB

AFP: "The eight candidates standing for President this month may differ on several issues, but when it comes to Iran's nuclear drive they are united in pursuing what they see as its peaceful atomic ambitions. Whoever is elected on June 14 to succeed Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, the Islamic republic is unlikely to alter the course of its programme of uranium enrichment. Supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei takes the key decisions in Iran, including on the nuclear issue. Western powers believe Iran's nuclear activities may have a covert military purpose, but Tehran denies this, saying they are peaceful. 'Definitely the result of the presidential election will not have any influence on the nuclear issue,' atomic chief Fereydoon Abbasi Davani has said. The presidential hopefuls - including top nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili - have all insisted that the nuclear project will proceed." http://t.uani.com/18Mnuyp

LAT: "Although nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili is favored to win the upcoming presidential election in Iran, U.S. Secretary of State John F. Kerry said Friday that the outcome would have little effect on Tehran's disputed nuclear program and wouldn't alter the Obama administration's search for a diplomatic solution. Kerry noted that Iran's nuclear program is not controlled by the president, but by the country's most powerful figure, supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. 'I do not have high expectations that the election is going to change the fundamental calculus of Iran,' Kerry told reporters during a joint appearance at the State Department with German Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle. 'The supreme leader will ultimately make that decision.'" http://t.uani.com/13g6b4h

Sanctions

Reuters: "The United States blacklisted on Friday eight companies in Iran's petrochemical industry, sending a warning to the Islamic Republic's global customers as Washington strives to cut off funds to the country's nuclear program. Petrochemical companies owned or controlled by the Iranian government that are on the Treasury Department list include Bandar Imam Petrochemical Co, Bou Ali Sina Petrochemical Co and Mobin Petrochemical Co. This was the first time Washington sanctioned the petrochemical industry, which an administration official said was the largest source of foreign earnings for Iran's nuclear program after oil sales. 'Companies should end immediately their purchases of Iranian petrochemical products,' the official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said on a call with reporters." http://t.uani.com/19C38Ha

WSJ: "The U.S. said Friday it used a variety of measures to increase its sanctions on Iran, including one authority used for the first time. The U.S. Treasury Department said that it and the State Department placed sanctions on Cyprus and Ukraine-based Ferland Company Ltd. for facilitating deceptive transactions on behalf of the National Iranian Tanker Co., which was named in July 2012 as an entity of Iran's government. In March 2013, Ferland and the NITC schemed to help Tehran evade sanctions by helping sell Iranian crude in a plan that also involved a vessel owned by Dimitris Cambis, Treasury said. Cambis, a Greek businessman, was placed under sanctions in March, but he denies the allegations." http://t.uani.com/18MlCG4

Bloomberg: "Iran is storing 30 million barrels of crude at sea as sanctions hinder exports and projects that would allow it to build onshore facilities to hold oil, according to E.A. Gibson Shipbrokers Ltd. Fourteen very large crude carriers are storing Iranian oil, the London-based shipbroker said in an e-mailed report today. Sanctions are hindering exports and preventing the Persian Gulf country from importing the steel it needs to build storage plants on land, according to the report... Iran exported 1.1 million barrels a day in March, about 50 percent less than a year earlier, the International Energy Agency estimates... Iran was storing oil on at least 11 VLCCs and one smaller vessel at the end of April, according to IHS Fairplay, a maritime researcher based in Redhill, England, that collates data on vessel movements." http://t.uani.com/14ba7Ez

Reuters: "Ships on the world's busiest waterways face growing threats to their satellite navigation systems, including jamming attacks, prompting Britain and South Korea to deploy back-up devices to avert potential disasters at sea... Captain Tim Gallaudet of the U.S. Naval Observatory, citing a U.S. navy sailor recently returned from a deployment in the Middle East Gulf, pointed to signal disruptions close to Iran. 'When transiting near the Iranian territorial sea limit in the northern Arabian Gulf, his ship consistently experienced interference with the vessel's GPS receivers, almost certainly due to intentional jamming,' Gallaudet told a forum last month." http://t.uani.com/18MmL0g

FT: "The National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC) is looking to tap deepwater oil reserves in the Caspian Sea and needs related equipment. Yet economic sanctions imposed by the United States, the European Union, and the UN Security Council due to concerns over Iran's nuclear program prevent most top-tier Western manufacturers and operators from doing business with the country, forcing Iranian energy officials to develop alternate procurement channels. 'Because of the embargo, it is hard for us to get anything,' Maleck Mohammad Gity, head of the petrophysics department of the Khazar Exploration and Production Co. told XportReporter. Khazar is the NIOC subsidiary that is in charge of the company's initiatives in the Caspian... Khazar is particularly interested in obtaining blowout preventers, subsea wellheads, and other equipment from GE and one of its subsidiaries, Wellstream Holdings, Gity told this news service. In September of 2009, GE signed a declaration with United Against Nuclear Iran, the US-based advocacy organization, pledging that it does and will not conduct any business with Iran. While Khazar does not use Chinese-made drilling equipment, it cooperates with the China National Logging Corporation (CNLC), which provides well-bore services for petroleum extraction projects, Gity said. Khazar has also been working with Schlumberger, one of the last Western oilfield services firms currently operating in Iran." http://t.uani.com/13zL6Ra

June 14 Elections

AP: "Iranians have seen it before: A youngish presidential candidate firing up crowds with fist-waving rants against the West, then displaying his Islamist bona fides with courtesy calls to hard-line clerics. Saeed Jalili, familiar to outsiders because of his prominence as a nuclear negotiator, has tried to distance himself from outgoing president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who has fallen out with the clerical leadership that controls Iran. But he is employing the same strategy that worked for Ahmadinejad eight years ago - and in the murky world of Iranian politics, where there are no credible polls and elections are a highly controlled affair, it has made him, for many, the presumed front-runner. 'No compromise! No submission!' shouted supporters at rallies this week that had men in front and women segregated in the back." http://t.uani.com/10TAs5M

AP: "Iranian media say that a court has imposed a six-month publishing ban on a state-owned newspaper for its allegedly false reporting. The semi-official Mehr news agency reported Sunday the suspension of IRAN, which is under the administration of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and is seen to express views close to his. The semi-official Fars also reported the ban. The agencies did not say which report triggered the ban. Calls to IRAN were not immediately returned." http://t.uani.com/11dfrC1

AP: "Iranian police have arrested several people campaigning for a reformist candidate in this month's presidential election, an aide said Sunday, as a senior official pledged to impose ideological limitations on the race. Police picked up several supporters of candidate Hasan Rowhani after he delivered a speech Saturday night, his campaign manager, Mohammad Reza Nematzadeh, told the semiofficial Mehr news agency. 'Some people were detained on the street after leaving the meeting,' he said." http://t.uani.com/11R3qbp

Syrian Civil War

WashPost: "Sophisticated technology from Russia and Iran has given Syrian government troops new advantages in tracking and destroying their foes, helping them solidify battlefield gains against rebels, according to Middle Eastern intelligence officials and analysts. The technology includes increased numbers of Iranian-made surveillance drones and, in some areas, anti-mortar systems similar to those used by U.S. forces to trace the source of mortar fire, the officials and experts said. Syrian military units also are making greater use of monitoring equipment to gather intelligence about rebel positions and jamming devices to block rebel communications, they said... 'We're seeing a turning point in the past couple of months, and it has a lot to do with the quality and type of weapons and other systems coming from Iran and Russia,' said a Middle Eastern intelligence official whose government closely monitors the fighting. The official, who spoke on the condition that his name and nationality be withheld in discussing sensitive intelligence, said the new gear is cementing an advantage gained by Syrian forces with the arrival of hundreds of Hezbollah fighters from Lebanon in recent weeks." http://t.uani.com/16Dz6Ef

Daily Telegraph: "Iran has cut up to £15 million a month in funding for Hamas as punishment for the movement's backing for the uprising in Syria, the Palestinian Islamist group's leaders have admitted. The two former close allies have also ceased military cooperation, effectively ending a warm relationship that saw Tehran provide weapons, technical know-how and military training to Hamas fighters. The rupture has been caused by Hamas's refusal to toe the Iranian line by supporting President Bashar al-Assad, whose Alawite regime is religiously loosely related to the Shia Islam practiced by Iran's ruling theocracy." http://t.uani.com/17S0Cya

Human Rights

Human Rights Watch: "Iran's judiciary should refrain from implementing a proposed penal code that retains execution by stoning and other provisions that violate basic rights. The Guardian Council, composed of 12 religious jurists, reinserted the stoning provision into a previous version of the draft law which had omitted stoning to death as the explicit penalty for adultery. No official statistics are available, but human rights groups estimate thatthe Iranian authorities currently hold at least 10 women and men who face possible execution by stoning on adultery charges. At least 70 people have been executed by stoning in Iran since 1980. The last known execution by stoning was in 2009." http://t.uani.com/11dfgXi

Foreign Affairs

CBS: "A semi-official Iranian news agency says Tehran has hosted a delegation of the Afghan Taliban, the radical Sunni group that has long been a sworn enemy of Iran's ruling Shiite clerics. The Fars agency reported on Saturday that the Taliban held talks with Iranian intelligence officials. Fars says the visitors came from the Taliban's political office in Qatar. The group recently opened a mission in the Gulf Arab country to provide a venue where Afghan President Hamid Karzai's emissaries could hold talks with the Taliban to try to find a peaceful end to the 12-year war in Afghanistan." http://t.uani.com/16DBFWN

AP: "Several dozen Iranian tourists touched down in an ancient Egyptian city on Friday, the first time Iranians were back in Egypt following a two months' interruption in the warming-up of ties between the two nations. The group of 132 Iranians was greeted with tight security measures meant for their own protection, an Egyptian security official said, speaking on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to talk to media. It was not immediately clear how long the group would stay or which locations it would visit. Aswan is known for ancient pharaonic archaeological sites, monuments of the Nubian culture and the High Dam along the Nile River." http://t.uani.com/13g7iRn

Opinion & Analysis

Sharon Harris-Zlotnick in Newsmax: "Three years after federal sanctions were enacted, the majority of U.S. states have yet to sign off on comprehensive barriers to trade with Iran. Worse, 13 states allow shipping companies that do business with Iran to access their ports. Those revelations come from the New York-based United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) group, a nonprofit dedicated to preventing Iran from attaining nuclear weapons. Only seven states, California, Indiana, Michigan, New York, New Jersey, Maryland, and Florida, have enacted so-called 'debarment legislation.' And a few of those have ports that continue to allow access to companies that do business with Iran. Three other states, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, and Missouri, have pending debarment legislation. 'We've had real success with debarment, because it forces companies to immediately make a choice,' UANI Communications Director Nathan Carleton tells Newsmax. 'Some companies have stopped doing business immediately with Iran.' UANI wants the debarment process adopted in all 50 states. Doing so would reinforce federal sanctions. ... UANI views divestment as a step in the right direction. ... But divestment falls short of actual debarment. Ports and shipping play a key role in Iran's push for regional hegemony. Ports in Iran are controlled by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Iran's president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, and his regime use the ports to bring in components for Iran's nuclear and ballistic-missile programs. Also, it uses its ports to ship weapons to other radical forces in the Middle East. Experts say that almost certainly means that goods bound for Iran are transiting through U.S. ports en route to the Islamic nation. ... Orde Kittrie, a professor of law at Arizona State University and senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a D.C.-based think tank, says the best way to tighten sanctions is to enlist the support of major U.S. states. 'The most impactful next step, at the state level, would be to persuade the remaining big budget states, topped by Texas, to adopt Iran contracting laws,' says Kittrie... UANI CEO Mark D. Wallace, a former U.S. ambassador to the United Nations under George W. Bush, lauds sanctions as using 'pen and ink over bullets and bombs.' He adds, 'Robust sanctions must be part of a total strategy.'" http://t.uani.com/1aVWhGh

Josh Wolonick in Minyanville: "Four years ago, social media proved one of its great values to the world: Facebook, Twitter, and the rest of their peers could allow people in dangerous and censored situations to instantaneously share information. Social media coverage of the 2009 presidential election in Iran brought to light violence, oppression, and human-rights crimes. A year later, social media weighed even heavier in the politics of a foreign part of the world: the Arab Spring was not so much televised as it was tweeted and Facebooked. Protesters and revolutionaries have used social media to great effect, and now, leaders are catching up. In particular, Ayatollah Sayyid Ali Khamenei, the supreme leader of Iran, is making his mark on Facebook: His page has 107,767 likes. His posts include tutorials on beard-shaving (shaving one's beard is haram, meaning 'rulings and consequences of a sinful act are applied to it as a matter of caution'), and on the upcoming presidential election ('the words of the candidates should be real, friendly, [and] based on accurate and true information'). According to the organization United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI), the page is also used to foment pro-regime sentiment, and to attack Western influences. As one post from May 1, 2013 read, 'You (the US government) are the symbol of evil! This is who wages war in the world, plunders the nations....' UANI has launched a campaign to have Khamenei's page taken off of Facebook, with a petition and a message sent directly to Mark Zuckerberg. The group argues that the page goes much further than being anti-American, that it breaks Facebook's guidelines against hateful, sexist, and discriminatory comments. As Nathan Carleton of UANI told Minyanville, 'The regime violates all those terms, and it's particularly hypocritical for them to be using Facebook when the people of Iran can't.' Many are banned from using the social network in Iran, but as Carleton said, '...in reality a lot of Iranians can still look at Facebook. Sometimes they're going around filters with other computer programs, but they can still see Facebook and that is one of the main reasons Khamenei has a page, so people can view it.' Moreover, UANI argues in its letter to Zuckerberg that Iranians have been tortured or even killed in relation to something they posted on Facebook." http://t.uani.com/15viwSu

WSJ Editorial Board: "Speaking of Iran (see above), the Iranian-American who pleaded guilty to conspiring to assassinate the Saudi Ambassador to the U.S. was sentenced on Thursday to 25 years in prison. Another day at the office for Tehran's Revolutionary Guard Corps. Manssor Arbabsiar, an Iranian-American, was charged in October 2011 with conspiring with 'factions of the Iranian government' to blow up Saudi Adel al-Jubeir as he dined at Cafe Milano, a popular Georgetown restaurant. Arbabsiar first denied any role in the plot, but prosecutors say that after his arrest he made phone calls to an Iranian Quds Force official that the FBI secretly recorded. He had made a number of trips to Iran in 2011, and prosecutors say he was recruited by a cousin who was a senior official in the Quds Force. Arbabsiar was caught after he tried to recruit a man he thought was part of a Mexican drug cartel to do the bombing. The man was an informer for the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration. Prosecutors say Arbabsiar cooperated for a time but then stopped. The conviction in federal court in Manhattan is good news, but the way the case has vanished from the public mind is not. The original charge was announced with great fanfare at a press conference by Attorney General Eric Holder, FBI director Robert Mueller and others. President Obama promised the 'toughest sanctions' on Iran in response. But as the case concluded this week, the government's main public reaction was a statement from the U.S. Attorney in New York. The White House has taken little public interest in the case, though it could have led to a horrific act of terrorism against civilians in the heart of the U.S. capital. Perhaps the plot doesn't fit conveniently with Mr. Obama's larger narrative that the war on terror is over, or maybe with his diplomatic ambitions for a deal on Iran's nuclear weapons. But that can't gainsay the evidence that Iran tried to plan and carry out a terrorist act on U.S. soil." http://t.uani.com/15vdmpt

Mary Anastasia O'Grady in WSJ: "To hear Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad tell it, Iran is a peace-loving country that minds its own business and just tries to get by in a world that is inexplicably hostile. But an eight-year investigation by an Argentine prosecutor into the 1994 bombing of the AMIA Jewish community center in Buenos Aires-where 85 people died-has led to a very different conclusion about Iran's global agenda. According to Alberto Nisman, who was assigned to the bombing case in 2005, Iran is sowing revolution all over the world, and Latin America is a key target. In a 500-page report released on May 29, Mr. Nisman outlines a sophisticated Iranian terrorism network that runs from the Caribbean to the Southern Cone. Its targets are not limited to areas south of the Rio Grande. The foiled attempt to blow up New York's John F. Kennedy Airport in 2007, Mr. Nisman contends, was an Iranian-planned operation that was managed from Guyana in a manner almost identical to the Buenos Aires attack. His report delivers evidence suggesting that numerous similar terror cells operate in the region. In October 2006, Mr. Nisman indicted seven Iranians and one Lebanese-born member of the pro-Iranian Hezbollah militia for the AMIA murders. Interpol notices for their arrest were issued but none was captured. Then, late last year, the Argentine government of Cristina Kirchner announced that a 'truth commission,' to be chosen by Argentina and Iran, would examine the viability of the prosecutor's case. To many Argentines, that seemed like letting the fox decide the fate of the chickens. But Mrs. Kirchner forged ahead, getting congress to agree. On May 20 Ahmadinejad approved Iran's participation on the commission. Mr. Nisman's response was to release a mountain of evidence against Tehran into cyberspace for all the world to see. The thread that led Mr. Nisman to look more closely at the JFK airport plot, and then the rest of the region, seems to have begun with Mohsen Rabbani. He was the Iranian cultural attaché in Buenos Aires in 1994 and the man whom Mr. Nisman's report says was 'the principal architect of the local connection in the AMIA bombing.'" http://t.uani.com/11z53nW

Eye on Iran is a periodic news summary from United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) a program of the American Coalition Against Nuclear Iran, Inc., a tax-exempt organization under Section 501(c)(3) of the Internal Revenue Code. Eye on Iran is not intended as a comprehensive media clips summary but rather a selection of media elements with discreet analysis in a PDA friendly format. For more information please email Press@UnitedAgainstNuclearIran.com

United Against Nuclear Iran (UANI) is a non-partisan, broad-based coalition that is united in a commitment to prevent Iran from fulfilling its ambition to become a regional super-power possessing nuclear weapons.  UANI is an issue-based coalition in which each coalition member will have its own interests as well as the collective goal of advancing an Iran free of nuclear weapons.

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