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Top Stories
Al-Monitor:
"On Dec. 30, Iranian politicians and media celebrated the
anniversary of the protests held in 2009 in support of the government and
against the Green Movement protesters who had contested the 2009
elections that brought President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad back into office.
Government officials and media often refer to the protests as the '9 Dey
epic.' (They happened on the ninth of 'Dey,' the 10th month in the
Iranian calendar.) They took place to counter the Ashura protests, which
were criticized by some in the government as the co-opting of an
important religious day for a political agenda that had been condemned by
officials. President Hassan Rouhani and other administration officials
praised the 9 Dey protests but attempted to portray the demonstration in
a different light than hard-liners. 'The people did not come to streets
for any particular political side,' Rouhani said. 'The people came to the
streets to defend Islam ... because they felt that the culture of Ashura
was insulted and the foreigners had created the setting for an
intervention.'" http://t.uani.com/1irUJff
Reuters:
"Six world powers and Iran have made good progress in expert talks
in Geneva on how to roll out last month's landmark nuclear deal which
obliges Tehran to suspend its most sensitive atom work, a senior Iranian
official said on Tuesday. It was unclear how close the seven countries
came to resolving all the numerous practical issues involved in putting
the Nov. 24 accord into practice or whether they had agreed on a date to
implement it after all-night talks. Abbas Araqchi, Iran's deputy
negotiator, told Iran's state news agency only that some issues remained
to be agreed at a more senior level... In the meeting, which lasted
nearly 23 hours and ended at 7 a.m. (0600 GMT), the sides again sought to
agree how exactly Iran would meet its obligation to suspend some uranium
enrichment and how western governments would ease sanctions in return.
'The last meeting ... resulted in good progress,' Araqchi was quoted by
IRNA as saying. 'The experts will present their reports to deputies and
political directors because some of the remaining issues need to be
resolved at the political level.' ... So far, a key sticking point
appeared to be how much prior notice Iran will give Western governments
that it is meeting its end of the deal before they lift the agreed
sanctions." http://t.uani.com/1cU4Fw5
Reuters:
"China may buy more Iranian oil next year as a state trader is
negotiating a new light crude contract that could raise imports from
Tehran to levels not seen since tough Western sanctions were imposed in
2012, running the risk of upsetting Washington. An increase would go
against the spirit of November's breakthrough agreement relaxing some of
the stringent measures slapped on Iran two years ago over its nuclear
program. The November deal between Tehran and the group known as P5+1 --
made up of the United States and five other global powers -- paused
efforts to reduce Iran's crude sales but required buyers to hold to
'current average amounts' of Iranian oil imports... But industry sources
say Chinese state-trader Zhuhai Zhenrong Corp, which was sanctioned by
Washington in early 2012 for supplying gasoline to Iran, is in talks with
the National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC) for a new contract for
condensate." http://t.uani.com/1eT9zLx
Nuclear
Negotiations
AFP:
"A former nuclear negotiator close to President Hassan Rouhani who
was sentenced to two years in prison in 2008 for actions against
'national security' has returned to Iran, media reported Tuesday. 'I have
returned to Iran to stay,' Hossein Moussavian told reporters Monday at
the funeral for the mother of Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif,
according to the IRNA news agency. He had been living in the United
States in recent years. Moussavian was the spokesman for Iran's
negotiating team when it was headed by Rouhani from 2003-2005. But in
April 2008, during the rule of hardline president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, he
was given a suspended two-year sentence and banned from public office for
five years after the national security conviction." http://t.uani.com/1lwPZCd
Terrorism
Al-Monitor:
"High level sources within Hamas have confirmed that warm relations
with the Islamic Republic of Iran have been restored, following a number
of meetings between the two sides held in various Arab and Islamic
capitals. These meetings were convened to restore what has been tarnished
over the last two years, following the Hamas leadership's withdrawal from
Syria and its decision to support the 'revolution.' Multiple sources from
within Hamas, speaking in a number of separate interviews, have told
Al-Monitor that prominent figures in the Iranian government have
contacted leaders in Hamas to hold meetings with the goal of healing the
rift between the two sides. This has led to a series of preliminary
understandings that has [tentatively] revived ties between the two
parties once again. The same sources pointed out that the two
highest-level meetings to have been held between the two sides involved
the head of Hamas' political bureau, Khaled Meshaal, and another unnamed
high-level representative. They met in the Turkish capital of Ankara
during Meshaal's visit to Turkey in October. The other top-level meeting
was held in the Qatari capital of Doha." http://t.uani.com/19E1D9j
Domestic
Politics
AP:
"Conservatives in Iran are enjoying their first major return to the
spotlight since the surprise victory of Hassan Rouhani in the June
presidential election, highlighting lingering divisions within the
Islamic republic's political establishment. The conservatives used a
event Monday to stage rallies around the country that criticized
Rouhani's outreach to the West and portrayed him as aligned with a 2009
protest movement that authorities here refer broadly as the 'sedition.'
... 'The seditionists must know that the playing field is not open to
them, and our people are very angry that some seditionists have been
assigned key government positions,' conservative Ayatollah Ahmad Khatami
said in a speech Monday in the southern Iranian city of Kerman, according
to domestic media reports. Crowds there and at similar gatherings around
the country shouted 'death to seditionists,' an apparent reference to the
leaders of the 2009 protest movement, Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi
Karroubi, and their political allies." http://t.uani.com/1cEYTgf
Reuters:
"Iran arrested a businessman subject to U.S. and European Union
sanctions on Monday, Iranian media reported... Babak Zanjani, the
chairman of Sorinet Group, was arrested on Monday afternoon, Mehr news
agency quoted judiciary spokesman Gholamhossein Mohseni-Ejei as saying.
Iran's state news agency IRNA cited an unnamed source as saying Zanjani
had been transferred to Evin prison in Tehran... Iran's Press TV said
Zanjani had been arrested on corruption charges and quoted the head of
the Supreme Audit Court, Amin-Hossein Rahimi, as saying the National
Iranian Oil Company had tasked him with exporting oil worth $3.0 billion.
'The problem is that they were supposed to get collateral from him by law
and this was not done. This is a violation,' Press TV quoted Rahimi as
saying." http://t.uani.com/1alfH7A
Foreign Affairs
Reuters:
"British parliamentarians are to visit Iran next week to try to
organise a reciprocal visit by Iranian lawmakers, the latest step aimed
at improving relations between the two countries. Britain severed direct
diplomatic relations with Iran after activists stormed its embassy in
Tehran more than two years ago. However, the election of a relative
moderate, President Hassan Rouhani, has paved the way for a thaw in ties
which has helped Tehran strike a preliminary agreement about its nuclear
programme with six world powers, including Britain. Britain appointed a
non-resident charge d'affaires to Iran in November, reviving direct ties,
a step mirrored by Tehran. Britain's envoy visited Tehran this month, the
first diplomatic visit by a British official in more than two years. On
Monday, the office of Jack Straw, a former British foreign secretary,
released a statement saying he would be part of a four-man delegation to
visit Tehran from January 6 to January 10. The delegation will be made up
of members of the British parliament's All-Party Parliamentary Group on
Iran, the statement said, saying they had accepted an invitation from the
Iranian parliament's British/Iran Friendship Group." http://t.uani.com/Khesk2
Opinion &
Analysis
Jeffrey Goldberg
in Bloomberg: "Remember that interim Iranian nuclear
agreement forged in Geneva on Nov. 24, the one accompanied by blaring
trumpets and soaring doves? Would it surprise you to know that the
agreement - a deal that that doesn't, by the way, neutralize the threat
posed by Iran's nuclear program, just freezes the program, more or less,
in place -- has not yet been implemented? Would it surprise you to learn
that this deal might not be implemented for another month, or more? Or
that in this long period of non-implementation, Iran is free to do with
its nuclear program whatever it wishes? And that one of the things it is
doing is building and testing new generations of centrifuges? Ali Akbar
Salehi, the head of Iran's Atomic Energy Agency, recently said, 'We have
two types of second-generation centrifuges. We also have future
generations which are going through their tests.' Happy New Year,
everyone. I've been willing to believe that the interim agreement
represents an improvement over the status quo, but in order to improve
the situation, the agreement has to be implemented. How astonishing is it
that the Obama administration, and its European allies, have let more
than a month slip by without actually getting this deal done? I recognize
that Secretary of State John Kerry is preoccupied with
Israeli-Palestinian peace talks, but perhaps he could spare a moment and
demand that negotiators work around-the-clock to seal this deal. Iran's
deputy foreign minister, Abbas Araqchi, said recently that he 'guesses'
that negotiators will finish hammering out the details of this agreement
by the end of January. Negotiations were suspended, of course, for
Christmas. And a couple of weeks ago, Iran temporarily boycotted talks
after the U.S. Treasury Department announced that it would be enforcing
existing sanctions on several Iranian companies. Let me stress this last
point: Existing sanctions. Not a good omen. Except, of course, for the
Iranian regime, which, it must be said, has had a pretty good year
overall. The smartest decision Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali
Khamenei, made this year was to allow the smiling cleric (and former
nuclear negotiator) Hassan Rouhani to win the election for the country's
presidency. Rouhani might very well turn out to be more moderate than
Khamenei -- superficially, of course, he is far more palatable than the
man he replaced, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad - but so far, there are no signs
that Rouhani's putative moderation has led to meaningful shifts in the
policies of the Islamic Republic. Iran continues to be the most potent
state sponsor of terrorism in the world; it is still the prime backer of
Hezbollah in Lebanon and of the Bashar al-Assad regime in Syria; and it
hasn't shown any inclination to actually roll back its nuclear program.
Though the interim agreement is still not in effect, Iran is benefiting
from the perception that it is. Already, Rouhani has told his parliament
that, following the 'success' of the talks, new money was flowing to the
Iranian stock exchange. 'Economic activities have been shifted to the
stock exchange from gold, hard currency and real estate,' he said. And
ever since the so-far unimplemented interim deal was struck, Western
companies have been sniffing around Tehran, looking for footholds in what
they have been led to believe is a soon-to-open market. Merck is trying
to partner with an Iranian drug company, and firms from France and Italy
have entered talks with Iranian automakers and mining concerns. If
Rouhani succeeds in improving Iran's economic prospects even before the
interim agreement goes into effect, his government will find itself under
much less pressure to negotiate a final nuclear deal." http://t.uani.com/1lwRHnk
Mark Hibbs in the
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace: "If all
goes according to plan, sometime during 2014 Iran will sign a
comprehensive final agreement to end a nuclear crisis that, over the
course of a decade, has threatened to escalate into a war in the Middle
East. But in light of the unresolved issues that must be addressed, it
would be unwise to bet that events will unfold as planned. Unrealistic
expectations about the Iran deal need to be revised downward. In Geneva
on November 24, Iran and the five permanent members of the United Nations
Security Council-China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the
United States-plus Germany agreed to a Joint Plan of Action. For good
reason, the world welcomed this initial agreement because it squarely put
Iran and the powers on a road to end the crisis through diplomacy. The deal
calls for Tehran and the powers to negotiate the 'final step' of a
two-stage agreement inside six months. In the best case, the two sides
will with determination quickly negotiate that final step. Iran will
demonstrate to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) that its
nuclear program is wholly dedicated to peaceful uses and agree to
verified limits on its sensitive nuclear activities for a considerable
period of time. In exchange, sanctions against Iran will be lifted. An
effective final deal could emerge. But Iran and the West will continue to
have major differences whether or not there is a final nuclear pact.
Residual mutual suspicion is significant, and the United States and Iran
have competing hardwired security commitments in the region. The United
States will not pivot away from Israel and the Arab states in the Persian
Gulf, and Iran will not abandon the Alawites in Syria and push Hezbollah
to renounce force. The November deal will not lead to a transformation of
the West's relations with Iran, and the act of signing a deal will not
mean Washington and Tehran have somehow overcome their multiple
fundamental differences and become partners, as some observers either
hope or fear... The potential showstoppers looming before the parties
concern matters that the negotiation of the final step itself must
resolve. Crucially, the Joint Plan of Action left open how Iran, the
powers, and the IAEA would resolve two critical matters: unanswered
questions about sensitive and potentially embarrassing past and possibly
recent Iranian nuclear activities, and unfulfilled demands by the UN
Security Council that Iran suspend its uranium-enrichment program. Since
2006, Tehran has refused to comply with the Security Council's suspension
orders, and since 2008, it has refused to address allegations leveled by
the IAEA that point to nuclear weapons research and development by
Iran." http://t.uani.com/1eofHqt
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Eye on Iran is a periodic news summary from United Against
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