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Top Stories
Reuters:
"Iran has halted its most sensitive nuclear activity under a
ground-breaking deal with world powers, a confidential U.N. atomic agency
report reviewed by Reuters on Monday showed, paving the way for the
easing of some Western sanctions. Western states were expected to ease
sanctions later on Monday after the United Nations nuclear watchdog
confirmed Iran is meeting its end of the bargain under a November 24
interim accord to resolve a decade-old dispute over its nuclear program.
European Union foreign ministers, meeting in Brussels, were due to take a
decision on EU measures later in the day. The U.S. State Department and
European Union confirmed receiving a report from the International Atomic
Energy Agency but neither commented on its content... The IAEA said
Tehran had begun the dilution process and that enrichment of uranium to
20 percent had been stopped at the two facilities where such work is
done. 'The Agency confirms that, as of 20 January 2014, Iran ... has
ceased enriching uranium above 5 percent U-235 at the two cascades at the
Pilot Fuel Enrichment Plant (PFEP) and four cascades at the Fordow Fuel
Enrichment Plant (FFEP) previously used for this purpose,' its report to
member states said... 'The iceberg of sanctions against Iran is melting,'
the head of Iran's Atomic Energy Organization, Ali Akbar Salehi, told
state TV." http://t.uani.com/1ajZMfF
WND:
"If Iran breaks its deal with the West tomorrow, the country would
be only two to three weeks away from producing enough highly enriched
uranium to assemble a nuclear weapon, according to Olli Heinonen, former
deputy director of the International Atomic Energy Agency. Heinonen
directed the safeguards division of the United Nations body charged with
enforcing the Non-Proliferation Treaty. He was asked Sunday on Aaron
Klein's WABC Radio show about the timeframe in response to statements
from Iran's top nuclear negotiator, who boasted last week that Tehran can
nix its deal with the West and resume enriching uranium to 20-percent
levels within one day if it so desires. Heinonen responded that if Iran
wanted it would currently take the country 'two, three weeks to have
enough uranium hexafluoride high-enriched for one single weapon.' He told
Klein: 'If [Iran] in reality [abrogates the deal] tomorrow, they still
have quite a substantial stock of uranium hexafluoride, which is enriched
to 20 percent. ... And then technically, when Iran has committed to this
month to certain parts of the processes in such a way these tandem
cascades are not anymore connected with each other, you can indeed put
them back in one day's time.' ... He said that if Iran keeps its side of
the deal then in six months from now 'it will take at least three months'
more to enrich enough uranium to assemble a nuclear weapon." http://t.uani.com/1dMYUiw
NYT:
"For critics of the interim nuclear agreement with Iran, Hossein
Sheikholeslami might seem to embody their worst fears. Mr. Sheikholeslami
has been busy in recent weeks, since the deal was agreed to in principle,
shuttling back and forth between the capital and the airport to welcome
all the guests: parliamentary missions from old European trading partners
like Germany, Italy and Finland, which are eager to renew contacts... In
the first two weeks of the year, Iran welcomed more delegations from
Europe than in all of 2013. 'The Europeans are waiting in line to come
here,' said Mr. Sheikholeslami, the international affairs adviser to the
head of Iran's Parliament, Ali Larijani, who has been receiving many of
the high-profile visitors. 'They are coming to seek benefits and to get
ahead of their international rivals.' Italy's foreign minister, Emma
Bonino, has been here, as has a former British foreign minister, Jack
Straw, in his capacity as the head of the Iran-Britain Friendship Committee.
The prime ministers of Italy and Poland have also scheduled visits. Trade
delegations from Ireland, Italy and France are expected in coming
weeks." http://t.uani.com/1bAG9i0
Nuclear Program & Negotiations
AFP:
"Tehran is still seeking to sidestep sanctions to get materials for
its nuclear programme, a senior US official said Friday on a European
tour seeking to cool renewed corporate enthusiasm about doing business in
Iran. Iran is 'undoubtedly still looking for ways to acquire material for
their nuclear programme,' the US official, speaking in Austria on a tour
also taking in Britain, Germany, Turkey, Italy and other places, said on
condition of anonymity. 'We have seen over many years that the Iranians
take advantage of the commercial and financial relationships that purport
to be for legitimate purposes to surreptitiously acquire materials that
they are looking for for their nuclear programme and their ballistic
missile programme, to facilitate their support for terrorism,' he said.
As a result he said that any 'responsible' firm should think twice before
seeking to do business with Iran when the Islamic republic gains minor
relief from sanctions from Monday as part of a nuclear deal with world
powers." http://t.uani.com/1jnrDvw
AFP:
"Iran denounced Friday as 'one sided' a text released by the United
States summarising the implementation of the nuclear deal Tehran struck
with world powers. 'The White House statement is a unilateral and
one-sided interpretation of the unofficial agreements between Iran and
P5+1' major powers, foreign ministry spokeswoman Marzieh Afkham said. 'By
no means is it a criterion to evaluate or judge how the Geneva deal will
be implemented,' she added in statements carried by the official IRNA
news agency." http://t.uani.com/1h8Z2sz
Al-Monitor:
"After the White House showed select members of Congress a text of
the implementation of the nuclear agreement between the P5+1 countries
and Iran and released a summary to the public, Iran's foreign minister
and chief nuclear negotiator criticized that only 'parts' of the
implementation were released and said that Iran has nothing to hide.
Zarif said to the Iranian Students News Agency (ISNA) that the Joint
Action Plan is the agreement between Iran and the P5+1 when it was made
and was published both in its original (English) and in Persian for the
public, and therefore 'there is nothing to hide' with respect to the
Geneva agreement... Zarif criticized the fact that 'some countries'
released parts of this 'verbal agreement,' which he referred to as a
'none-paper' agreement, despite the fact that 'it wasn't very long.' He
suggested that the summary was released due to 'domestic issues.' He said
that either way, what is important for Iran is the 'continuation of the
implementation of the nuclear deal.'" http://t.uani.com/1dJjBO2
WSJ:
"Talks on a final settlement of the decade-old dispute over Iran's
nuclear ambitions could start in a few weeks, European Union foreign
policy chief Catherine Ashton said Monday. Speaking to reporters on her
way into a meeting of EU foreign ministers, Baroness Ashton said
six-power talks with Iran on a final deal should start soon. 'Depending
on how things work out today, I hope that we will start talks in the next
few weeks,' she said. She said she would discuss the matter with her
colleagues from the six-power group in the next few days and will then
speak with her Iranian counterparts." http://t.uani.com/1fQYwTx
Reuters:
"The U.N. atomic watchdog said on Friday it needed extra money from
member states to fund the 6 million euro ($8.2 million) cost of verifying
a landmark nuclear agreement between Iran and six world powers. The
International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) will play a pivotal role in
checking that Iran lives up to its part of the interim deal by curbing
its disputed uranium enrichment activity in exchange for some easing of
international sanctions that are severely damaging its oil-dependent
economy... The IAEA's 35-nation board will hold an extraordinary board
session on January 24 to discuss the nuclear agency's increased workload
as a result of the interim deal between Iran and the United States,
France, Germany, Britain, China and Russia." http://t.uani.com/1ajWmto
WashPost:
"President Obama sat for lengthy interviews with the editor of the
New Yorker, David Remnick, who wrote a nearly 17,000-word profile of the
president in this week's edition... Remnick writes that Obama believes
that if the ongoing diplomatic efforts with Iran prevail, it could bring
a new stability to the region. Obama said, '[A]lthough it would not solve
the entire problem, if we were able to get Iran to operate in a
responsible fashion - not funding terrorist organizations, not trying to
stir up sectarian discontent in other countries, and not developing a
nuclear weapon - you could see an equilibrium developing between Sunni,
or predominantly Sunni, Gulf states and Iran in which there's
competition, perhaps suspicion, but not an active or proxy
warfare.'" http://t.uani.com/1cM5FMX
Sanctions
Relief
NYT:
"Iranian officials said they expected positive economic changes with
the lifting of some sanctions against the country as part of a deal
struck with world powers, which begins on Monday... 'Through these talks
in Geneva, we are heading in a direction in which not only the sanctions
are being lifted, but also Iran's political isolation is coming to an
end,' Mohammad Sadr, an adviser to Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif,
told the Iranian Student News Agency on Sunday. 'It will take time, but
these two fundamental problems will be solved,' he said... Describing
Iran's economy as having its arms and legs tied to 'the ropes of the
sanctions,' President Hassan Rouhani said last week that he expected the
economy to improve under the deal. 'One of these ropes will be cut,' Mr.
Rouhani said, according to state television. 'Over all, in my opinion, we
will witness a positive, acceptable and outstanding change in the
country's economic sector in the next six months.' Mr. Rouhani is
scheduled to address the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, on
Thursday, and he is expected to highlight the opportunities the Iranian
market has to offer... Austrian Airlines announced last week that it was
resuming flights to Iran after a one-year break forced by the sanctions,
and several European political and trade delegations have visited the
country in recent weeks." http://t.uani.com/1fQY2N4
Reuters:
"Iranian President Hassan Rouhani will court global business in
Davos next week after winning an easing of some economic sanctions... The
potential of a market of 76 million people in a country with some of the
world's biggest oil and gas reserves is a magnet for foreign firms
seeking long-term opportunities... Trade delegations from Turkey,
Georgia, Ireland, Tunisia, Kazakhstan, China, Italy, India, Austria and
Sweden have visited Iran since early December, according to Mehrdad
Jalalipour, director of Iran's Trade Promotion Organisation. British
lawmakers were there this month and a posse of senior French industrialists
is off to Tehran on Feb. 2-5... U.S. Treasury Under Secretary David Cohen
visited Europe this week to discuss continued enforcement of sanctions
that have largely shut Iran out of the global payments system. A senior
U.S. official said Cohen had conveyed a firm message. 'Iran is not open
to business,' the official told reporters. 'There are certain openings
but they are limited. The message to the business community is that if
you think we have removed sanctions, that is a misimpression. The sanctions
regime remains in place,' he said." http://t.uani.com/1dN9JRS
FT:
"Iranian analysts say although the relief is modest - as the most
hard-hitting sanctions on crude oil exports and banking remain in place -
its impact on the Iranian economy and on sentiment should not be
underestimated. Inflation runs at 39.3 per cent and the economy shrank
5.8 per cent last year. Youth unemployment is at about 24 per cent. Amir
Cyrus Razzaghi, head of Ara Enterprise, a private consulting group, said
easing the sanctions could add $15bn to the economy this year. This
includes about $3bn in automotive, aircraft parts, medicine and medical
equipment and $4-$5bn in extra petrochemical exports. He added that about
$7bn would be saved from oil exports that would have been blocked if
sanctions had been in place. The petrochemicals sector is expected to
benefit immediately from the lifting of sanctions as it is ready to boost
production and increase exports. Iran produced $15bn in petrochemicals,
most of which were exported, two years ago but that dropped to $10bn due
to sanctions." http://t.uani.com/1muwrBW
WSJ:
"Iranian energy officials sketched out their vision of an economic
détente with the West-promising a revamp of the energy sector and
financial benefits for companies willing to re-engage with the Islamic
Republic. On the eve of a temporary easing of sanctions against the
Islamic Republic, an Iranian deputy oil minister said Tehran was likely
to spend billions of dollars in soon-to-be-unfrozen oil proceeds on
buying a wide range of goods from U.S. and European companies... For
Iranian economic officials, the race is now on to drum up international
interest. Iran has to maximize its diplomacy efforts now because 'the
window could always close' amid the threat of a political backlash, in
either Tehran or Washington, said Denis Florin, head of the Paris-based
energy advisory firm Lavoisier Consulting. In a weekend interview with
The Wall Street Journal here, Ali Majedi, deputy oil minister in charge
of international affairs and commerce, said Tehran would likely be
spending $4.2 billion in cash that is expected to be unfrozen by the
temporary deal on goods such as foodstuffs, aircraft, machinery and auto
parts from the U.S. and Europe. Allowing this money to move freely opens
'a new window of cooperation with the Europeans and the U.S.,' Mr. Majedi
said." http://t.uani.com/1dJ4B2G
WSJ:
"Iran is soliciting views from foreign oil companies on how the
country may structure new oil contracts to ease cost-recovery and allow
booking of reserves, a senior Iranian oil official said... In an
interview with The Wall Street Journal over the weekend, Mehdi Hosseini,
who heads a committee set up by Iran's oil ministry to revise oil
contract terms, said Tehran was consulting with international oil
companies and soliciting their views on how to make contracts more
attractive, should Western firms be allowed back in. 'We are trying to
find a winning formula for both sides,' he said. While declining to name
the companies Iran is contacting, he said public consultations would be
held next month in Tehran on the matter." http://t.uani.com/1mkiRy4
Al-Monitor:
"Iran has witnessed more than 30% growth in tourism since last year.
Administration officials say it's just the beginning of a boom in the country's
untapped sector, which is set to create millions of jobs and bring
billions of dollars to the economy in the near future. ourism in Iran
came under the spotlight after The Guardian placed the country, early in
January, as No. 11 on its list of 'Holiday hotspots: where to go in
2014.' The British newspaper wrote, 'There hasn't been a better time for
Westerners to visit Iran since the 1979 revolution' ... Financial Times,
The Telegraph and Los Angeles Times all shared the same idea that the
nuclear deal sent a signal to the world that Iran is a hot, and now safe,
travel destination to travel. The Los Angeles Times reported on Dec. 30
that the nuclear deal 'has already produced a boomlet in American travel
to Iran.'" http://t.uani.com/1jndluT
Reuters:
"About 250,000 tonnes of German wheat will be shipped to Iran in
January, another sign of Iran's large food purchases after a deal last
year to relax Western sanctions, European traders said on Friday. 'The
shipments show that a large volume of the wheat Iran bought in early
December will be sourced in Germany,' one trader said. 'The purchases
were also larger than previously thought.' Traders said on Dec. 5 that
Iran's state grains buyer GTC purchased around 180,000 tonnes of wheat
from the Baltic Sea region in a food buying spree after the relaxation of
sanctions... At least four bulk carriers are scheduled to load wheat for
Iran in German ports in January, traders said." http://t.uani.com/19HLTHF
Sanctions
Enforcement
Today's Zaman:
"A Turkish company was issued more than TL 57 million in fines for
the 1.2 tons of gold that Iranian businessman Babak Zanjani brought from
Ghana that remained in İstanbul for 17 days before it was sent to its
final destination -- Dubai. According to the report in the Vatan daily on
Sunday, a plane flying from Ghana to Iran landed in İstanbul on Jan. 1,
2013, declaring that it carried 1,500 kilograms of not precious metals.
Upon suspicion, customs officers inspected the plane and found 1,208
kilograms of gold. Officials from ULS Airways, which operates the plane,
said that 500 kilograms of the gold belongs to the Duru Döviz Company,
while the rest was supposed to go to Sorinet Holding in Iran. However,
because no documentation was presented, the customs officers issued a report
and sealed the cargo and the plane. According to the graft investigation
that broke out on Dec. 17, Reza Zarrab intervened in the situation to
release the cargo by using his ties in the government and bureaucracy.
"http://t.uani.com/1mkmdkK
Congressional Sanctions Debate
WashPost: "Former spy chief Michael Hayden said Sunday that a
congressional proposal to impose new sanctions against Iran could work to
the Obama administration's advantage in its negotiations with the Islamic
Republic. 'I think having that congressional action just off-stage, just
in the wings, might actually be a powerful negotiating tool,' Hayden said
on 'Fox News Sunday.' He later added: 'I like the threat of additional
sanctions hanging out there.'" http://t.uani.com/1eMP9Pq
Syria Conflict
Reuters:
"An unexpected last-minute U.N. invitation for Iran to attend a
peace conference on Syria threw the talks into doubt on Monday, with the
Syrian opposition saying it would pull out unless Secretary-General Ban
Ki-moon withdraws his offer. Iran is the main foreign backer of Syrian
President Bashar al-Assad and its presence has been one of the most
contentious issues looming over the first talks attended by both Assad's
government and opponents, set to start on Wednesday in Switzerland. Adding
to dark clouds over the talks, Assad said he might seek re-election this
year, effectively dismissing any talk of negotiating his departure from
power, his enemies' main demand. Ban's invitation appeared to catch
Western powers off guard. The United States and France both said Iran was
not welcome at the talks unless it publicly backed an accord reached in
Geneva in 2012 that calls for a transitional government for Syria. 'This
is something Iran has never done publicly and something we have long made
clear is required,' U.S. State Department spokeswoman Jen Psaki said in a
statement. 'If Iran does not fully and publicly accept the Geneva
communique, the invitation must be rescinded.' ... But Iran said it would
attend the talks without having accepted any preconditions, apparently
standing by its longstanding position." http://t.uani.com/1e4OJoN
Human Rights
ICHRI:
"In statements during a speech in the city of Mashhad, Iran's
Justice Minister Mostafa Pour-Mohammadi said yesterday that a trial for
imprisoned 2009 presidential candidates Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi
Karroubi would not be in the best interest of the regime, and that the
regime has determined that 'they should remain restricted.'
Pour-Mohammadi added that if Mousavi and Karroubi were put on trial, the
Iranian regime 'would witness struggles, confrontations, and
demonstrations.'" http://t.uani.com/1fQO2n6
Toronto Star:
"It was just before Christmas 2010 and Maryam Nayeb Yazdi was doing
what she does most days and nights: sitting in her room in her shared
Toronto apartment, eyes fixed on the screen, fingers flashing over the
keyboard. It was then that she saw Habib Latifi was about to die. The
young Kurdish law student and political prisoner was in a regional
Iranian jail, condemned to death. The clerical authorities picked that
time to announce his impending execution... In spite of her self-effacing
manner she is at the centre of an international network, operating
through her blog Persian2English: it translates current news of human
rights violations into English, and is a world-ranking resource for
pundits, politicians, universities, media, human rights groups and the
United Nations. Last year, she was awarded the Queen's Diamond Jubilee
Medal for her contribution to human rights... To prisoners half a world
away, Nayeb Yazdi is a heroine. But it's the culmination of a long
physical and emotional journey that began with her birth in Mashhad, in
northeastern Iran, 30 years ago." http://t.uani.com/LGMoqZ
Reuters:
"Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei agreed on Saturday to
pardon or reduce the sentences of 878 people in honour of the Prophet
Mohammad's birthday on Sunday, the state news agency IRNA reported. Last
September, some 80 political prisoners were released, including prominent
human rights activist and lawyer Nasrin Sotoudeh, just before a trip by
President Hassan Rouhani to the U.N. General Assembly in New York. IRNA
did not say whether any of those pardoned on Saturday had been convicted
of political offences. There did not appear to be any change in the
status of Iran's two most prominent political prisoners - former
presidential candidates Mirhossein Moussavi and Mehdi Karroubi - who have
been under house arrest for nearly three years." http://t.uani.com/1e6QyyS
Foreign Affairs
AP:
"Gunmen killed an Iranian diplomat in a drive-by shooting here on
Saturday, security and medical officials said, in the latest attack on
Iran's diplomatic corps in the Middle East in recent months. Iranian
state television said that Ali Asghar Asadi, Iran's economic attaché in
Sana, the Yemeni capital, was attacked while driving and suffered four
gunshot wounds to the chest and stomach. It did not elaborate, but said
Mr. Asadi was 'martyred.' Three Yemeni security officials said that Mr.
Asadi was leaving the Iranian ambassador's house in the Hadda
neighborhood in southern Sana when assailants opened fire, and that he
died in a hospital. A medical official confirmed the death... Another
Iranian diplomat in Yemen was abducted by gunmen in July and remains in
captivity. Officials suspect that Al Qaeda militants are behind that
kidnapping. Negotiations to secure the diplomat's release have so far
failed." http://t.uani.com/1bAR0Za
Al-Monitor:
"For decades, Jordan-Iran relations were described as tepid at best,
with Tehran initiating contacts in hopes of improving bilateral ties.
Amman has kept its distance, making sure it does not anger its Gulf
allies, especially Saudi Arabia and Bahrain, and the United States.
Throughout the years, a number of Iranian envoys visited Jordan and met
with top Jordanian officials. Not much came out of such meetings. Under
former Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad relations worsened, as Amman
recalled its ambassador and refrained from appointing a new one. But
Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif's brief visit on Jan. 14
signaled a possible change." http://t.uani.com/1jncE4U
Opinion &
Analysis
UANI CEO Mark
Wallace & Executive Director David Ibsen in RCW:
"The discussion over halting Iran's nuclear program, long a
bipartisan matter, took an unfortunate and ugly turn two months ago,
reaching a crescendo in recent days. We refer to the White House's
ferocious and ongoing campaign to prevent Congress from pursuing new
sanctions against the Islamic Republic of Iran. In short, the Obama
administration believes that Congress, by passing new Iran sanctions,
will blow up the agreement it reached in Geneva. To fend this off, the
White House has been bellicosely characterizing anyone who supports new
sanctions on Iran (or opposes the Geneva agreement, for that matter) as a
dishonest warmonger. It began November 12, when White House Press
Secretary Jay Carney accused Congress of a 'march to war' for considering
new sanctions, an attack he repeated the next day. Shortly thereafter,
President Obama himself more discreetly said, 'If in fact we're serious
about trying to resolve this diplomatically,' then we should recognize
that 'military options are always messy.' The administration's efforts
continued through the holidays, and have this month intensified in
response to a new Senate bill. Last week, a White House National Security
Council official, Bernadette Meehan, stated, 'If certain members of
Congress want the United States to take military action, they should be
up front with the American public and say so. Otherwise, it's not clear
why any member of Congress would support [the] bill ...' Given those
words, one might surmise that Ms. Meehan was referring to an extremist
bit of legislation being pushed by a small Congressional faction. On the
contrary, she was talking about the Senate's 'Nuclear Weapon Free Iran
Act,' authored by Senate Foreign Relations Committee Chairman Sen. Robert
Menendez (D-NJ) and Sen. Mark Kirk (R-IL), which has the support of a
bipartisan majority of U.S. Senators. For Ms. Meehan to assert that the
majority of U.S. Senators secretly want a war and are not being 'up front
with the American public' is nonsensical, beyond the pale and puzzling
for a variety of reasons. For one, sanctions are a non-violent policy
tool used to avoid war. It was, after all, President Obama himself who,
in his Nobel Prize acceptance speech, described sanctions as
'alternatives to violence' that must be 'tough enough to actually change
behavior.' The idea that somehow the mere consideration of additional
sanctions -- ones with humanitarian carve-outs, reversibility, broad
discretionary and waiver authority for the President, and delayed
implementation corresponding to the Geneva agreement -- will invariably
lead to war is not logical. Second, don't forget that just a few months
ago Congress was decidedly split on the question of whether to deploy
military assets against key Iranian ally Syria -- despite impassioned
efforts by the Obama administration to persuade them otherwise. There is
simply no evidence that members of Congress are hungry for a war. Third,
the White House's belief that sanctions would cancel out the Geneva
agreement and/or lead to war, if true, says far more about the mindset of
the Iranians than that of the U.S. Senate. Indeed, in the White House's
false dichotomy between the current draft agreement and war is certainly
a disturbing failure to hold the Iranians accountable for their actions.
War is presented as an outcome divorced from a cause, a threat to cajole
opponents and skeptics into accepting a deal on Iran's terms (e.g. no
cessation of enrichment). Such a construct is false, however; if war were
ever to occur, far more blame would rest at Tehran's feet than America's.
Let's not forget that this entire problem is about Iran's illegal,
threatening and deceitful nuclear activities. It is Iran that has openly
defied UN Security Council resolutions for years. It is Iran's
intransigence and disregard for international law, as well as its record
of terrorism, which have brought all of this about. To lay the blame for
the potential escalation of this crisis at the feet of the U.S. Senate is
incongruous... Iran has also describing the agreement as a no-risk
opportunity, stating, 'as this game is played in our court, we cannot
lose ... these interconnections can be removed in a day.' Tellingly, the
opposite narrative has not been coming from the U.S. The Obama
administration is not itself threatening to blow up the agreement with
Iran if there are delays, backtracks or continued assertions of an
Iranian right to enrichment. Rather, the administration is treating the
Iranian regime as a demanding customer that we must all walk on eggshells
to avoid offending. This is unacceptable. We must not allow blame for
this crisis to be assigned anywhere but where it belongs, and we should
certainly say 'enough is enough' when it comes to cheap political attacks
on the individuals in Congress and elsewhere who have done the most to
put the president's directives for accountability, respect and security
into practice." http://t.uani.com/1me7yYb
Economist:
"Though hailed as an historic breakthrough by some and a terrible
blunder by others (notably Binyamin Netanyahu, Israel's prime minister),
the November deal may be best seen as a six-month truce to buy time. Gary
Samore, who was Barack Obama's adviser on arms control until last year
and is now at Harvard's Belfer Centre, points out that neither side has
given away any of its big bargaining chips. Most actions being taken are
reversible; the trickiest issues have been kicked down the road. That is
not surprising, given the degree of mutual mistrust; you have to start
somewhere. But it means that all the heavy lifting has still to be done.
In particular, a deal that America (with the support of Britain, France
and Germany) could sign up to is far from anything even Iran's more
moderate new president, Hassan Rohani, has indicated he could
contemplate. Mr Obama says that 'Iran must accept strict limitations on
its nuclear programme that make it impossible to develop a nuclear
weapon'. In truth, no agreement can permanently remove Iran's ability to
get a bomb if it really wants one; infrastructure can be hamstrung, but
technical knowledge cannot be eradicated. Mr Obama's real aim is to make
it as hard as possible for Iran to exercise that option, denying it the
ability to produce large amounts of fissile material quickly enough to
escape detection and disruption. To that end, while accepting that Iran
should be allowed to keep some uranium-enrichment capability (a
concession too far, according to many critics), America will insist that
Iran reduces its centrifuges from its current 19,000 to fewer than 5,000.
Among America's other conditions for a comprehensive deal are the closure
of the supposedly impregnable underground enrichment facility at Fordow;
the dismantling of the heavy-water nuclear reactor at Arak; a
satisfactory account by Iran of all its past 'weaponisation' activities;
and an inspection regime even more rigorous than required by Iran's
signature of the IAEA's 'additional protocol'. By contrast, Mr Rohani has
promised that none of Iran's existing nuclear facilities will be
destroyed; that Arak (which, once online, gives Iran an alternative
plutonium path to a bomb) will be kept only to supply medical isotopes;
and that Iran has the right to what he calls 'industrial-scale'
enrichment, which could mean at least 50,000 centrifuges. It is thought
that he envisages a deal that freezes the programme for three years, after
which, having shown good faith and signed the additional protocol, Iran
would be allowed to expand enrichment to an industrial scale. Mr Samore
says that concentrating only on limiting Iran's breakout capability is a
bit of a red herring. The real issue, he says, is that if Iran has a big
enough nuclear infrastructure, it might be able to siphon off people and
material into secret facilities. These might produce a small arsenal of
nuclear devices before Iran felt the need to announce a test, by which
time it would be too late to do anything about it... Mr Samore reckons
that Congress, having a version of the 'Nuclear Weapons Free Iran Act'
ready as a threat, might put useful extra pressure on Iran." http://t.uani.com/1eZaRSx
UANI Advisory
Board Member Olli Heinonen in Harvard's Iran Matters:
"How does one understand what is being laid out in the Joint Plan of
Action? Here are some technical takes on plan. According to the
provisions of the interim agreement, Iran continues to produce low
enriched (below 5%) enriched uranium and keeps both 5% and 20% enriched
uranium stocks on its soil. Iran maintains centrifuge production
capabilities including the skills of the work force, and continues with
centrifuge R&D and testing. Some of the 5% enriched uranium and all
the 20% enriched uranium gets converted to oxides. In addition, no new
centrifuges will be installed. In terms of capacity - that is, when Iran
is able to produce enough weapons grade UF6 material for a single nuclear
explosive - this moves the sliding bar to three months from the currently
estimated two to three weeks window given Iran's currently known
facilities. Construction work in non-nuclear parts is permitted at the
Arak IR-40 reactor, and component manufacturing for IR-40 can proceed
elsewhere. The stipulated slowing down of installation work at Arak and
the halting of fuel production at Isfahan that would feed the Arak
reactor means that the reactor will not be operational before 2016. This
process serves as a confidence building measure, where Iran as well as
the P5+1 will be tested on their undertakings as well as their ability to
reach a final accord. The most difficult parts, however, lie ahead:
agreement on the scope of uranium enrichment and heavy water program, and
Iran's seriousness in addressing questions and concerns related to its
nuclear program's military dimension, which go well beyond access to one
particular building at Parchin. The present agreement also differs from
the one in 2003 concluded between the EU-3 and Iran. Under the 2003
agreement Iran agreed to suspend all its uranium enrichment and heavy
water reactor related activities, and agreed to implement fully - albeit
provisionally - the Additional Protocol. Those arrangements in 2003 and
agreed between Iran and the IAEA provided the IAEA with generally wider
access rights than under the current Plan of Action. The 2003 undertaking
included, inter alia, access to nuclear R&D not involving nuclear
material. An example of such access was the IAEA visits to the centrifuge
mechanical testing facilities in Tehran and Natanz, which is excluded
from the current plan. Another major difference is that in 2003-2005, the
IAEA had access to centrifuge component manufacturing facilities, and all
components and raw materials such as high strength aluminum or maraging
steel were subject to monitoring by the IAEA. Under the current
agreement, Iran would produce additional centrifuges only to replace the
broken ones, and it commits to placing all manufactured rotor cylinders
and centrifuges under IAEA control. One of the challenges for the IAEA is
to establish whether all rotors manufactured have been declared. While it
is not obvious from the Joint Plan of Action and the non-paper whether
the IAEA will be provided with the essential information on the
acquisition and inventories of raw materials in order to be able to
confirm the declaration, this information is clearly needed to provide a
more complete picture. Some additional complications may also arise from
the fact that the IAEA does not have access to Iran's R&D
installations where the mechanical tests of centrifuges are being
conducted without nuclear material. What will be the stocks of uranium in
Iran six months from now? Iran will continue to produce 5 % enriched
uranium with a monthly rate of about 250 kg UF6. However, it will convert
any newly produced UF6 to uranium oxide by the end of the six month
period. Iran can be expected at the end of the period to tally 7.5 to 8.0
tons of 5 % enriched UF6, the rest being held in oxide form. This remains
a substantial amount.. Under today's agreement, Iran will dilute half of
its 20 % enriched uranium to 5 % and convert it to uranium oxide. The
other half will be converted in the coming months to oxide, but it will
be kept as a working stock to produce 20 % enriched uranium fuel for the
Tehran Research Reactor. These dilution and conversion activities of 20 %
enriched uranium are the major factors which extend the break-out times
to over three months, with currently known and installed centrifuges."
http://t.uani.com/1jhLizv
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Eye on Iran is a periodic news summary from United Against
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