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Back in October we
came out with a piece titled "Indicators that a Very Different
Afghan Winter is Approaching." In that article, we detailed how
unlike previous years, we had been seeing indicators that both the
Taliban (TB) and Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP) were planning
on maintaining the momentum of recent gains to keep the pressure on
GIRoA and the US military. Recently there was a VBIED attack near
Bagram Airfield that killed six US military personnel. This is
significant due to Bagram's close proximity to Kabul and the airbase's
role as home of one of the largest contingents of the remaining US
troops in the country. Despite the attempt earlier in the month to
target TB leader Mullah Mansur, the TB has shown now sign of letting
up. As for ISKP, their expansion appears to have slowed - possibly due
to infighting.
Source: Khaama Press
One of the things we
highlighted in "Indicators that a Very Different Afghan Winter is
Approaching" was the pressure the TB had been placing on the ANSF
and warlord Ismail Khan in particular. From early-December to now there
have been a series of clashes in Herat Province that has seriously
strained pro-government forces in the area. The TB's campaign has also
spread into Helmand Province. Recent reporting confirmed that TB forces
are on the verge of seizing control of Sangin District, which is
strategically important due to the fact that it links Lashkar Gah - the
Helmand capital - to districts in the North. If the TB is allowed to
maintain its hold on Sangin, they will control the supply lines to the
other districts - and will be able to completely choke off the
remaining ANSF personnel who haven't already fled or defected to the
other side. Already the ANSF forces in Helmand are reporting severe
ammo and manpower shortages. We assess that its only a matter of time before
Sangin falls to the TB - the deployment of British military
"advisors" won't matter.
You can deploy all the troops you want - but nothing good will come of
it as long as the current ROE remains in-place
Source: Reuters/M. Ismail
Regarding ISKP, the
group's expansion appears to have slowed - for now. We suspect there
may be some infighting taking place among the ranks, which shouldn't surprise
too many analysts who look at Afghanistan or Pakistan considering how
many in the ISKP ranks are disgruntled former TB members who
"wanted to be in-charge" themselves. Still, we need to
confirm/deny this possibility. However, the group has managed to remain
active as demonstrated by the recent establishment of the "Voice
of the Caliphate" radio station that disseminates Islamic State
(IS) propaganda to the masses in the ISKP stronghold of Nangarhar
Province. Their ranks were bolstered after the admission that Mullah
Omar had been dead for over two years. This and the momentum that the
TB experienced in the later part of the fighting season are likely why
the senior leadership decided against hibernating for the winter as
they have in previous years. They have to stay relevant and can't allow
for ISKP to upstage them. What this means to the US forces in the
country and its allies is that we now have two jihadist powerhouses
forgoing the traditional "R&R" to maintain pressure on an
extremely weak GIRoA. As you can see, the ANSF isn't in any kind of
shape to combat either threat (just look at the green on blue attacks
and plethora of incidents involving gross cowardice). If you want to
know how this story ends, just look at the final years of the Soviet occupation
of Afghanistan - that will tell you all you'll need to know.
Study
Group Writer | December 22, 2015 at 12:15 pm |
Tags: Afghanistan, Bagram Airbase, Helmand Province, Herat Province, Islamic State (IS), Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP),
Kabul, Mullah Mansur, Nangarhar Province, Sangin, Taliban (TB), Voice of the Caliphate |
Categories: Timeline | URL: http://wp.me/p4QNrJ-2Cn
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