Iran
Missile Strike Escalates War Between Radical Shi'ites and Sunnis
by Yaakov Lappin
Special to IPT News
June 20, 2017
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 Iran's recent missile attack on ISIS targets in eastern Syria
represents another escalation in the ongoing war between radical Shi'ites
and jihadist Sunnis across the Middle East.
Iran, which is leading an array of heavily armed Shi'ite proxies and
militias deployed in the region, fired a volley of six to seven missiles at
targets located 700 kilometers away. It was in retaliation for deadly ISIS terror attacks earlier this month on Tehran's
parliament and a shrine of Ayatollah Khomeini, who founded the Islamic
Republic.
Israeli sources have reportedly said that most of the missiles missed
their targets.
But more missile strikes could follow. Despite Tehran's rhetoric,
however, those strikes will not target strong states in the region any time
soon, a senior defense expert told the Investigative Project on Terrorism
(IPT).
The Syrian strikes mark the first time Iran fired surface-to-surface
missiles outside of testing programs since the Iran-Iraq war, nearly 30
years ago, said Tal Inbar, head of the Space and UAV Research Center at
the Fisher Institute for Air and Space Strategic Studies in Herzliya,
Israel.
"In this respect, there is perhaps a certain crossing of a
psychological line. Ballistic missiles are seen as strategic weapons that
are rarely used," he said.
Shedding light on the type of missile used, dubbed the Zolfaghar
(apparently named after the sword of Imam Ali, the first imam of Shi'ite
Islam), Inbar said, "This is the most advanced of a whole family of
solid fuel missiles, that began with the Fateh 110 missile. The Fateh 110
missile exists in Syria, and according to many reports, it has also been
passed on to Hizballah [in Lebanon]."
This family of Iranian missiles comes with advanced guidance systems,
including satellite guidance, Inbar said, though their performance in the
June 18 strike had to be assessed.
"It is a totally original Iranian missile. Here too, there was a
message, in choosing their own missile. The range was not only the
consideration," he said.
"The question is, will this be a one-off incident, or has a
strategic and psychological dam been burst, and this will become
routine?" Inbar asked. "We don't yet know if this will become a
trend."
Iranian officials have, for their part, wasted little time in indicating
that they are prepared to fire more missiles, as part of the ongoing war
between the Salafi-jihadist Sunni organizations and Shi'ite Iran.
"If they [Islamic State] carry out a specific action to violate our
security, definitely there will be more launches, with intensified
strength,"
Gen. Ramazan Sharif of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) said on state TV.
The missile strikes were as much a media event for Iran as they were an
operational attack, Inbar said. "It is clear from the footage that the
Iranians prepared for this long in advance. There is video from hours
before the launch. They brought in their TV broadcasters, and filmed
preparations from a drone." The Zolfaghar is a "tactical missile
for fast responses. It can be fired by trucks that appear and vanish
quickly. But the Iranians did not use it this way here."
Iranian missiles "won't fall on Tel Aviv tomorrow," Inbar
said, urging a "sober assessment." Saudi Arabia, a bitter
arch-enemy state of Iran, also is not likely to be targeted by a single
Iranian Kalashnikov bullet, but Tehran certainly supplies missiles to
Yemen's Houthi Ansar Al-Allah Shi'ite army, which fired them at Saudi
cities.
"The Iranians will not fire directly on too strong an enemy,"
Inbar said.
Emily
Landau, head of the Arms Control and Regional Security Program at
the Institute for National Security Studies in Tel Aviv, saw two messages
in the Iranian missile strikes.
Washington "is no longer turning a blind eye to Iran's regional
aggression and ongoing provocations – whether in the missile realm,
fighting in Syria, or [its] harsh approach to the U.S. [President] Trump
visited the region last month and placed Iran in the crosshairs," she
said.
Trump suggested the U.S. would lead like-minded states in cooperation
against Iran's hegemonic moves, and Iran is "trying to signal that it
has capabilities that it is willing to use," Landau stated.
At the same time, Iran continues to claim that its missile program is
for defensive purposes only. "So the stated reason for the attack is
retaliation to the ISIS terror attack in Iran," Landau added.
In this regard, Iran is trying to disprove U.S. claims that its missile
program is for offensive – possibly nuclear – purposes. "Iran is of
course very minded to maintaining its missile program – with missiles that
of course can carry nuclear payloads," Landau said.
Still, some figures in the Iranian regime used the incident to send
veiled threats to Israel, Saudi Arabia, and the U.S.
"The presence of Americans in the region is illegal," Iranian
foreign ministry adviser Hussein Al-Islam told Lebanon's Al-Miyadin news agency. "The U.S.
should leave Syria sooner or later."
"The Saudis and Americans are the main recipients of this
message," the IRGC's Sharif said.
Israel now "has much to worry about," Al-Islam also said.
Israel, he added, "understood the missiles' messages well. We are
targeting terrorists only, and the countries that support them must know
what it means when we use these missiles."
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu fired back, saying, "The military and the security
forces are continuously monitoring Iran's activity in the region. This
activity is also about Iranian attempts to settle in Syria and, of course,
to transfer advanced weaponry to the Lebanese Hizballah. I have a message
to Iran: Do not threaten Israel."
However Iran proceeds, its long-term ideological vision to spread
Shi'ite radical Islamism across the region and later, across the world, is
no secret.
IRGC commanders have made a series of statements and speeches in recent
months, documented by the Middle East Media Research Institute
(MEMRI), that reflect this radical ideology.
IRGC commanders hold that Iran is only at "the first stage on the
path to the spread of the rule of Shi'ite Islam in the Middle East and
worldwide," MEMRI said in a report.
For example, IRGC Commander Ali Ja'afari declared that, "We are on
the path that leads to the rule of Islam worldwide."
In another recent speech, Ja'afari added, "The Islamic Revolution
is aimed at creating an infrastructure of the religion of God on earth, and
it will wait for no man on its path advancement. All [Iranian] officials
must adapt to the accelerated progress of the Revolution."
These sentiments were echoed by Ali Saeedi, who represents Iran's
Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, in the IRGC. "There is no doubt
that the Islamic Revolution is a prelude to Islam becoming global,"
Saeedi said. "Therefore, the Revolution must be strengthened in the
best possible way, in order to create the framework for the revelation of
God's promise."
Esmail Qaani, deputy commander of the IRGC's overseas elite operations
unit, the Quds Force, said: "Without a doubt, our martyrs and those of
the dear ones like you Fatimiyyoun [an Afghan militia set up by Iran] will
not settle for less than the global rule of the Imam Mahdi. Our martyrs
inaugurated a great path. Syria and Aleppo are the temporary aims, and the
main aim is global rule, which I hope is not far off."
Yaakov Lappin is a military and strategic affairs correspondent. He
also conducts research and analysis for defense think tanks, and is the
Israel correspondent for IHS Jane's Defense Weekly. His book, The
Virtual Caliphate, explores the online jihadist presence.
Related Topics: Yaakov
Lappin, Iran,
ISIS,
Syrian
civil war, missile
launches, Zolfaghar
missiles, IRGC,
Sunni-Shia
tensions, Tal
Inbal, Ramazan
Sharif, Emily
Landau, arms
control, Hussein
Al-Islam, Benjamin
Netanyahu, MEMRI,
Ali
Ja'afari, Ayatollah
Khamenei, Ali
Saeedi, Esmail
Qaani
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