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TOP STORIES
When an explosion nearly razed Iran's long-range missile
research facility in 2011 - and killed the military scientist who ran
it - many Western intelligence analysts viewed it as devastating to
Tehran's technological ambitions... [But this spring, weapons
researchers] stumbled on a series of clues that led them to a
startling conclusion: Shortly before his death, the scientist, Gen.
Hassan Tehrani Moghaddam, oversaw the development of a secret, second
facility in the remote Iranian desert that, they say, is operating to
this day... [A]n analysis of structures and ground markings at the
facility strongly suggests, though does not prove, that it is
developing the technology for long-range missiles, the researchers
say.
European Union efforts to circumvent U.S. sanctions on
companies with business in Iran showed signs of unraveling as some
member states questioned whether measures to counteract the penalties
would do more harm than good.
The Trump administration imposed sanctions on five
Iranian officials it said are responsible for providing Yemeni rebels
with long-range missiles being used to target Saudi Arabia.
NUCLEAR DEAL & NUCLEAR PROGRAM
For all of Iran's fierce verbal response to fresh U.S.
threats of tougher sanctions, some senior officials in Tehran believe
the door to diplomacy should stay open.
Polish leaders are planning to defend the U.S.
government's withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal within the
European Union, where the decision has been strongly
criticized.
Iran poured scorn on threatened U.S. sanctions on
Tuesday and told European powers to step up and salvage its
international nuclear deal - though Germany signaled there was only
so much it could do to fend off Washington's economic clout.
While European powers are determined to salvage the 2015
Iran nuclear deal after the Trump administration's unilateral exit,
it is far from certain if they will find effective ways to do so. The
accord's survival hinges upon the EU's ability to incentivize Tehran
with lucrative business deals to remain compliant, but the far-reaching
U.S. sanctions will deter major European companies and banks from
investing in the Islamic Republic.
SANCTIONS, BUSINESS RISKS, & OTHER ECONOMIC
NEWS
In a sign that it will allow some flexibility in
exchange rates under threatened U.S. sanctions, Iran has lowered the
official value of the rial versus the dollar for the first time since
it tried to stamp out a free currency market last month.
BP has delayed work on its Rhum field in the North Sea
while it seeks clarity over US sanctions on Iran.
Austrian energy group OMV is continuing with planned
Iranian energy projects despite the United States' withdrawal from a
nuclear pact with Tehran, but said on Tuesday it had made no
investments there yet.
Iran on Wednesday kept up a drumbeat of opposition to
U.S. demands for sweeping change in its foreign policy and nuclear
program, and Tehran's ally Damascus dismissed out of hand a U.S. call
for a withdrawal of Iranian forces from Syria.
The latest standoff between the U.S. and Iran may be
leaving oil-tanker owners in more of a bind than in previous years.
As the U.S. reimposes sanctions on the Islamic Republic, firms that
help ferry Iranian oil risk losing access to the American financial
system, similar to earlier in the decade when such measures were
enforced. Additionally, this time around, they'll have to contend
with being cut off from the booming business of transporting crude
pumped from shale fields in Texas or wells in the Gulf of Mexico,
according to shipbroker Braemar ACM.
The energy ministers of Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Russia
will meet this week on the sidelines of the St. Petersburg Economic
Forum to discuss the potential impact of renewed U.S. sanctions on
Iran.
U.S.-IRAN RELATIONS
Speculation is swirling over the prospect of US
willingness to push regime change in Tehran, as US officials
including Washington's top diplomat urge Iranians to "choose for
themselves" their government.
If you ever wanted to know what the opposite of Barack
Obama's Iran strategy would look like, I recommend Mike Pompeo's
speech Monday at the Heritage Foundation. In his first major address
as secretary of state, Pompeo outlined a new strategy that overturns
three key assumptions that underpinned the Iran policy of Obama and
his top diplomat, John Kerry. These are: that America can live with
Iranian regional aggression in exchange for temporary limits on its
nuclear program; that the 2015 nuclear bargain expressed the will of
the international community; and that Iran's current elected
leadership can moderate the country over time.
Pompeo is right: You can't separate a rogue regime from
its roguery.
SYRIA, RUSSIA, ISRAEL & IRAN
Bashar al-Assad's May 17 visit to Russia is generating
much dismay in Tehran. Shortly after Assad's meeting with President
Vladimir Putin in Sochi, the Russian envoy for Syria urged all
foreign military forces to leave the war-torn country. This,
Alexander Laverentiev insisted, includes Iran and its ally, the
Lebanese Hezbollah. It was explicit, and Tehran's wiggle room to
downplay Moscow's call has been limited.
Israeli jets have continued to strike targets in Syria
following the recent Iranian missile barrage against IDF posts in the
Golan Heights, a senior Israel Air Force officer said on
Tuesday.
HUMAN RIGHTS
Protests in Iran have largely faded from Western news
reporting, but not from the country's streets, with more than 400 in
April alone. Last week in the southern city of Kazeroon, police
opened fire on demonstrators, reportedly leaving at least three
people dead and dozens injured. Authorities arrested more than 100
others... Both the White House and Congress should draw attention to
the waves of protests shaking Iran, and encourage U.S. allies to follow
suit.
Masih Alinejad's hair scares Iran's leaders, and
Washington is finally taking notice.
IRANIAN REGIONAL AGGRESSION
During Secretary of State Mike Pompeo's first major
policy speech on Iran Monday, he warned Tehran that the U.S. would
work closely with regional allies to deter its meddling. One country
that has recently experienced such Iranian interference is Morocco,
and Nasser Bourita the minister for foreign affairs, spoke to Fox
News about the problem last week.
NORTH KOREA & IRAN
Otherwise North Korea could have demanded the same
lenient terms, and negotiations would fail.
HEZBOLLAH & LEBANON
Lebanon's new parliament on Wednesday elected veteran
speaker Nabih Berri to a sixth consecutive term, making him one of
the longest-serving parliamentary heads in the world... Berri, 80,
heads the Amal Movement and is a close ally of the powerful Shiite
movement Hezbollah.
Hezbollah ally Elie Ferzli won at least half the votes
in Lebanon's parliament on Wednesday, securing his election as deputy
speaker.
IRAQ & IRAN
Firebrand Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr's surprising
lead in Iraq's May 12 parliamentary elections has raised alarm in
Tehran. The Iranian press expressed the concern that Sadr would seek
to undercut the Islamic Republic's influence in Iraq by marginalizing
Iran's allies and allowing regional Sunni countries, particularly
Saudi Arabia, to make inroads into Iraqi politics and economy at the
expense of Tehran's interests.
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