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TOP STORIES
A U.S. air raid against Iranian-backed fighters in southern
Syria last week represents a volatile new phase of the conflict that
could trigger a wider confrontation between the United States and Iran -
and their allies on the ground. Until last week's strike, the United
States and Iran had managed to steer clear of a direct confrontation in
Iraq and Syria, where each has hundreds of military advisors on the
ground, embedded with local forces. In Iraq, they share a common enemy in
the Islamic State. In Syria, the two sides are waging different wars:
U.S. aircraft and special operations forces are pushing to roll back
Islamic State militants, while Iran is backing the Syrian regime against
opposition forces in a multi-sided civil war.
'Israelis are murdered by terrorists wielding knives and
bombs. Hamas and Hezbollah launch rockets into Israeli communities where
schoolchildren have to be trained to hear the sirens and to run to the
bomb shelters - with fear but with speed. 'ISIS targets Jewish
neighborhoods, synagogues and storefronts. And Iran's leaders routinely
call for Israel's destruction.' 'Not with Donald J. Trump,' he boomed,
stopping to accent each part of his name. And as he frequently does, he
departed from his prepared remarks to add a Trumpian exclamation point:
'Believe me!' 'The United States is firmly committed to keep Iran
from developing a nuclear weapon,' he declared, and halting their support
of terrorists and militias.' 'So we are telling you right now that Iran
will not have nuclear weapons. America's security partnership with Israel
is stronger than ever.'
Two top U.S. intelligence officials offered varying takes on
Iran's behavior in the Middle East since signing a nuclear accord,
tempering President Donald Trump's condemnation of the agreement reached
during the Obama administration as the "worst deal ever." Iran
continues to adhere to terms of its 2015 agreement with world powers to
curb its nuclear programs in exchange for the lifting of some sanctions,
Director of National Intelligence Dan Coats told the Senate Armed
Services Committee on Tuesday. At the same time, the Islamic Republic
continues to be a destabilizing force in the Middle East, the head of the
Defense Intelligence Agency, Marine Lieutenant General Vincent Stewart,
said. Differences arose when Republican Senator Lindsey Graham pressed
Coats and Stewart on whether Iran has increased its aggressive behavior
in the Middle East.
NUCLEAR & BALLISTIC MISSILE PROGRAM
A senior Iranian official declared on Tuesday that Iran will
"never stop" developing advanced missile technology in
violation of international accords barring such action, according to
comments that came in reaction to President Donald Trump's strong
rhetoric against Iran during a trip through the Middle East. Mohammad
Baqer Nobakht, a spokesman for the Iranian government, said that Iran's
missile program-which the U.S. intelligence community suspects could be
used to fire a nuclear-armed weapon-is non-negotiable and will not cease.
Iran will continue to invest in its missile program, Nobakht said.
SANCTIONS RELIEF
Iran has signed a deal worth $615 million - or euros 550
million - with a Spanish-Iranian consortium under which the group will
provide pipes used in Iran's oil industry. It's the first major deal
since President Hassan Rouhani's re-election last week to another term in
office on a platform of reform. The consortium, which includes Spain's
Tubacex S.A. and Iran's Foolad Isfahan Company, will produce pipes made
of a corrosion resistant alloy for a network of 600 kilometers, or about
370 miles, over three years. Wednesday's statement says the pipes will be
produced using Japan's JFE Steel Corporation technology, and that the
know-how will eventually be given to the Iranians. Iran has been trying
to renovate its oil industry since the 2015 landmark nuclear deal with
world powers.
Two-thirds of the contract are financed by the Chinese
government with a very low interest rate, with the remaining third
covered by Chinese insurer Sinosure, Asghar Fakhrieh-Kashan, who oversees
Iranian firms' talks with international businesses, told The Financial
Tribune. "Issues regarding the government guarantees were resolved
during Minister of Economic Affairs and Finance Ali Tayyebnia's recent
visit to China," he added. Tayyebnia attended the One Belt, One Road
summit in Beijing earlier this month. "Only drafting and other
paperwork remains," Fakhrieh-Kashan said, announcing that CMC
representatives will be in Iran in June to sign the contract.
Iran's oil industry bounced back from sanctions last year,
cranking up output to recover market share from other OPEC producers. Now
that its surge has topped out, Iran supports an extension of the group's
cuts to preserve those gains. Oil Minister Bijan Namdar Zanganeh's
willingness to embrace a deal that leaves Iran room to pump about 3.8
million barrels a day signals the country is already producing near
capacity, according to analysts from BNP Paribas SA and Energy Aspects
Ltd. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries is expected to
extend curbs by nine months at a Vienna meeting this week. "We do
not have any problem between six or nine months," Zanganeh told
reporters Wednesday in Tehran, referring to two different scenarios for a
possible extension. "We will go along with what the majority
agrees with." He added that "there has been no hint regarding a
cutback in production by Iran as of now," when asked if other OPEC
members have requested the country to trim output under a renewed deal.
Iran's oil minister Bijan Zanganeh said Wednesday that OPEC
will continue its production curb but there is debate among members about
how long it will continue, the Iranian Students' News Agency (ISNA)
reported on Wednesday. "It could be three, six or nine months,"
Zanganeh said. Zanganeh said Iran will not decrease its own production
and that regional rival Saudi Arabia is trying to drive up oil prices,
ISNA said. The re-election of president Hassan Rouhani last Friday helped
remove "obstacles" to oil contracts, ISNA quoted Zanganeh as
saying. Zanganeh said he has not yet been asked to serve in Rouhani's new
cabinet.
MILITARY MATTERS
Iran's Army Ground Force launched a military exercise in
central parts of the country on Wednesday to put into operation the
latest homegrown weapons. The war game, codenamed Beit ul-Muqaddas-29, is
being held in Nasrabad region in the central province of Isfahan, with
the participation of various units including the infantry, the armor
units, the artillery, rapid reaction forces, elite commandos of the 65th
Brigade, drone units as well as choppers from the Ground Force Airborne
Unit. The purpose of the exercise is to bring into operation the latest
military equipment and weapons manufactured by the local experts.
HUMAN RIGHTS
The persecution of the Baha'i religious
minority in Iran has grown worse under President Hassan Rouhani, the
spokesperson for the community at the United Nations in Geneva told the
Center for Human Rights in Iran (CHRI). "Unfortunately, the
situation has not changed in the past four years and if we look at the
number of Baha'i citizens arrested, it has actually become worse,"
Simin Fahandej told CHRI in a recent interview."There are currently
about 90 Baha'is in prison, Baha'i students are still denied university
education, and hundreds of their businesses have been shut down, not to
mention the abuse the community endures on a daily basis," she said.
"Before he was elected in 2013, Mr. Rouhani gave a lot of hopeful
slogans about equality and justice for all Iranians and he won,"
added Fahandej. "But in the past four years, the rights of Baha'i
citizens have been violated in every way."
DOMESTIC POLITICS
Iranian security forces forcibly dispersed mass protests in
the southern region of Ahwaz on Monday and Tuesday against what people
say were electoral fraud in the recent municipal elections. People came
out to protest against what they say was a falsification of the results
of the municipal elections for the benefit of the immigrants in the city
and at the expense of the Arabs, amid reports of the arrest of a number
of activists and use of violence against protesters, including an old
man. This comes while the director of the electoral office in Ahwaz has
confirmed that there are indeed false votes in the ballot boxes as a
whole, where tens of thousands of votes were copied and thrown in favor
of certain candidates, stressing the need to punish all offenders.
OPINION & ANALYSIS
News must be new but it needn't be surprising. The decidedly
unsurprising news out of Iran last week: There was an election (of sorts)
and the winner was Hassan Rouhani, the incumbent president. An apparently
mild-mannered cleric with a beatific smile, he has presided over Iran for
four years - a period of egregious human rights violations, the
Iranian-backed slaughter in Syria, the taking of American and other
hostages, and increasing support for terrorists abroad. Nevertheless,
you'll see him described in much of the media as a "moderate."
At most he is a pragmatist, one with a keen sense of how credulous
Western diplomats and journalists can be. He knows they won't judge him
based on such quotes as this: "Saying 'Death to America!' is easy.
We need to express 'Death to America!' with action."
On Wednesday, the Trump administration made clear that its
Iran policy review is headed toward the position shared by the chairs and
ranking members of the House and Senate foreign relations committees that
the United States should take a firmer stance against Iran's non-nuclear
malign activities. Even if tensions between Congress and the
administration over Russia continue to increase, these steps make it
clear that Iran policy is an arena in which the two branches can and
should work very effectively together. The administration renewed a
statutory waiver of nuclear sanctions against Iran's petroleum exports.
In explaining his decision to renew the waiver, President Trump explained
that he was doing so "[a]s my administration conducts a review of
its Iran policy, and consistent with United States commitments specified
in the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA)."
"I want to tell you," Israeli Prime Minister
Benjamin Netanyahu said to President Donald Trump during a joint press
conference Monday, "how much we appreciate the reassertion of
American leadership in the Middle East." So how is Trump's first
foreign trip as president playing out? Suddenly, the scandal-mired
President seems like a plausible world leader. He is certainly a more
welcome guest in the capitols of America's traditional allies than his
predecessor, President Barack Obama. In addition to enjoying the show,
viewers at home-the ones who voted for Trump last fall-likely appreciate
the $110 billion arms deal Trump struck with Saudi Arabia. With another
$350 billion to come over the next decade, those contracts will certainly
help put assembly-line Americans back to work.
In elections on Friday, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani won
a second term and reform candidates gained seats in municipal councils
across the country. A right-wing conservative in the 1980s, Rouhani ran
as a moderate in 2013, and today reformists are celebrating his landslide
victory. How does this shift illuminate Iran's changing politics?
Pro-democracy voters in Iran have become increasingly pragmatic in recent
years. To compete in elections, candidates must first be approved by the
Guardian Council. In 2013, the reformists' main presidential candidate,
Hashemi Rafsanjani, was disqualified, and reformists decided to back
Rouhani as an alternate. And again in the 2016 parliamentary elections,
pro-reform voters supported a reformist list, despite the Guardian
Council disqualifying even their second- and third-tier candidates.
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