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TOP STORIES
The Trump administration, delaying an anticipated
confrontation with Iran until the completion of a long-awaited policy
review, plans to recertify Tehran's compliance with the Obama-era
nuclear deal, according to U.S. and foreign officials. The recertification,
due Monday to Congress, follows a heated internal debate between
those who want to crack down on Iran now - including some White House
officials and lawmakers - and Cabinet officials who are
"managing other constituencies" such as European allies, and
Russia and China, which signed and support the agreement, one senior
U.S. official said.
U.S. President Donald Trump is "very likely"
to state that Iran is adhering to its nuclear agreement although he
continues to have reservations about it, a senior U.S. official said
on Thursday. Under U.S. law, the State Department must notify
Congress every 90 days of Iran's compliance with the so-called Joint
Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). Trump has a congressionally
mandated deadline of Monday to decide. The landmark 2015 deal struck
with Iran by the United States, France, Britain, Russia, China and
Germany is aimed at preventing Tehran from developing a nuclear
weapon by imposing time-limited restrictions and strict international
monitoring on its nuclear program. In return, Tehran won relief from
punishing international economic sanctions. If Trump does state
Iran is in compliance, it would be his second time since taking
office in January to do so despite his promise during the 2016
campaign to "rip up" what he called "the worst deal
ever."
While the Iranian Foreign Ministry announced on
Wednesday the details of consultations between Foreign Minister
Mohammed Javad Zarif and Parliament's Foreign Policy and National
Security Committee, the latter criticized the US Administration for
"intimidating" international banks from establishing
financial ties with Iran. In its second report on the implementation
of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) commonly known as
the Iran nuclear deal, the parliamentary committee said major banks
refused to deal with Iran for fear of being subjected to US
sanctions. The report touches on the latest developments in the
Iranian nuclear file in eight axes, including measures taken to implement
the agreement, the country's nuclear activity, in addition the
sanctions imposed on the Persian State. According to the report, more
than 238 people and entities were still on the UN Security Council
sanctions list, "even after 7 years" (8 years since the
implementation of the agreement)
U.S.-IRAN RELATIONS
The former leader of a student paramilitary organization
in Iran was denied entry into the US on Tuesday as he headed to a
prominent Boston hospital to work as a medical scholar. Mohsen Dehnav
arrived back in Tehran Thursday morning after being detained for 30
hours at Logan International Airport, along with his wife and three
children. Dehnav, 32, was barred from entering the US despite having
a valid work visa to conduct cancer research at Boston Children's
Hospital. Iranian state TV footage revealed that Dehnavi once
featured in a years-old report by the semi-official Fars news agency
in which he was named the head of the student branch of the Basij at
Iran's Sharif University in September 2007. The Basij is a volunteer
militia that is linked to Iran's Revolutionary Guard. He later served
on the unsuccessful 2013 presidential campaign of a prominent
hard-liner, former nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili
President Trump must increase pressure on Iran to
disclose the whereabouts of Robert Levinson -- the former FBI agent
who disappeared in the country a decade ago -- and return him to his
family, several U.S. lawmakers said. A delegation of lawmakers -- led
by U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson, D-Fla. -- penned a letter Tuesday to Trump,
calling on the administration to "re-engage" with Iran over
Levinson, a Florida native who was last seen in 2007 on Iran's Kish
Island. Levinson disappeared while traveling on an unauthorized
mission to recruit an intelligence source for the CIA. If alive, he
is the longest-held hostage in American history. "As you know,
our government has long pressed Iran to return Bob," read a copy
of the letter obtained by Fox News.
In August 2012, a silver Rolls-Royce pulled up to the
majestic Broadmoor Hotel in Colorado Springs, Colorado. Out stepped a
newly married couple, freshly arrived from their wedding
ceremony...At the wedding dinner, a man toasted the groom, Mitchell
Zong, as the kind of person who "really bends over backwards to
help friends and family." Less than two years later, when FBI
agents, executing a search warrant, entered the Zong family's
Southern California home, they took that same sapphire wedding set,
valued at more than $40,000, as well as $24,000 in cash. Federal
prosecutors had initiated a huge civil forfeiture case over property
owned by the Zong family, including Mitchell Zong. Prosecutors claim
that what the FBI seized that day represents a fraction of the
ill-gotten funds that tie Mitchell Zong to a spectacular
transnational sanctions-evasion scheme, one that laundered more than
$1 billion in Iranian government funds over a mere six-month period
in 2011.
As part of the comprehensive nuclear deal reached two
years ago between Iran and the six world powers, Iran agreed to
reduce elements of its nuclear program in exchange for sanctions
relief. The deal was largely brokered as a result of bilateral talks
between the United States and Iran. The two countries, to ensure that
the other side fulfilled its requirements, required periodic reports
A report by Iran's parliament says that the United States has made
transactions between Iranian and large European banks challenging,
impacting the effects of the nuclear deal. In the United States,
every 90 days the State Department must provide Congress with a
report on Iran's compliance with the nuclear deal, which is referred
to as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action in the United States and
with the Persian acronym BARJAM in Iran. In April, Secretary of State
Rex Tillerson confirmed that Iran was in compliance but cited the
country for involvement in regional conflicts. He also said that
President Donald Trump ordered the National Security Council to
review whether or not continuing to suspend the nuclear sanctions on
Iran was "vital to the national security interests of the United
States."
CONGRESSIONAL ACTION
U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz Tuesday proposed a bill calling for
the unconditional release of U.S. nationals and permanent legal
residents detained in Iran. Iran has "detained and imprisoned
several U.S. citizens and legal permanent residents in order to
extract political and financial concessions from our country,"
Cruz's media office said in a statement. In May, the House of
Representatives passed a similar resolution calling for the release
of political prisoners, including Lebanese national and permanent
U.S. resident Nizar Zakka. The bill, put forward by Cruz, urges the
U.S. and its allies to establish a multinational task force to secure
the release of U.S. and foreign nationals imprisoned in Iran. In the
statement Cruz said, "The Iranian regime must be held firmly
accountable after the last eight years in which the U.S. policy
towards Iran was based on weakness and appeasement."
BUSINESS RISK
Iran has piqued financial interest throughout the world
for its massive energy reserves, but the country actually has a host
of other opportunities in less obvious areas, according to one global
investor. For Clemente Cappello, CIO of London-based Sturgeon Capital,
Iran holds promise in part for its cheap labor, abundance of natural
resources, and well-educated youth. Specific sectors that could
benefit from this mix include glass, manufacturing and
petrochemicals, he explained, but Iran could also grow its technology
sector. In fact, the country already has local versions of Uber,
Amazon and eBay. In addition, Cappello mentioned that he thinks
"equity opportunity is the easiest and most profitable"
option in the country. Stocks, he said, are trading on average of six
times price-to-earnings ratio, dividend yields are "well into
the double digits" and interest rates could soon be cut in half.
SYRIA CONFLICT
The Syrian defense minister has lauded the support
provided by Iran, Russia and Lebanon's Hezbollah movement in battling
terrorism inside Syria. Major General Fahd Jassem al-Freij made the
remarks during a Thursday field visit to units of the Syrian army in
Damascus south-eastern countryside. "Our battle against
terrorism is continuous and the terrorist scheme against Syria is
collapsing and retreating thanks to the steadfastness of the Syrian
people who rallied around their army and leadership as well as the
support provided by the friendly countries, particularly Russia, Iran
and the Lebanese Resistance," the official SANA news agency
quoted Freij as saying. Syria has been fighting different
foreign-sponsored militant and terrorist groups since March 2011. De
Mistura estimated last August that more than 400,000 people had been
killed in the crisis until then. Russia and Iran are the main
international backers of the Syrian government in its battle against
foreign-backed terrorists.
DOMESTIC POLITICS
Iran's First Vice President Eshaq Jahangiri, who also
serves as head of the Resistance Economy Command Headquarters, last
month unveiled a comprehensive employment plan that envisions the
creation of 971,700 jobs by the end of the current Iranian year
(March 20, 2018). This target could be achieved if the allocated 215
trillion rials ($6.6 billion) in credit is secured, and most
importantly, if the cost of job creation is significantly cut.
Meanwhile, the plan is silent on the ample red tape that must be
removed for unemployment to decrease. The Rouhani administration has
unveiled a comprehensive employment plan in a bid to realize the
president's campaign promises, but it is unclear whether the
envisioned job creation will materialize given the obstacles that
remain unaddressed. The latest data released by the Statistical
Center of Iran (SCI) put the national unemployment rate for the first
(spring) quarter at 12.6% - 0.4% higher than the same period last
year.
Head of the Iranian reform policies committee Mohammed
Reza Aref revealed deep divisions between the reformists and
President Hassan Rouhani over the formation of the country's new
government. The revelation was made weeks before the president is set
to be officially sworn in to office after being elected for a second
term earlier this year. Intense efforts are being made to form a new
cabinet. Aref has meanwhile demanded from Speaker Ali Larjani to urge
Rouhani to "be open with the people over the country's financial
situation." He stressed that selling oil and gas does not comply
with the Iranian budget. Commander of the Iranian Revolutionary
Guards Mohammed Ali Jaafari also refused to stop his forces' economic
activity, saying that he cannot "stand idly by to the needs of
the revolution and people." Aref directed a strongly worded
rebuke to his "moderate" reformist ally Rouhani, saying
that he "condemns the reformists for winning a second term in
office" and demanding that consultations be made with the higher
reform policies committee to form a new government.
OPINION & ANALYSIS
France shares a dubious distinction with my own home
country of Italy. Both were among the first to send business
delegations and enter into new trade agreements with the Islamic
Republic of Iran following the implementation of the Iran nuclear
deal, or Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) - what President
Donald Trump is famous for describing as "the worst deal ever
negotiated." In
a joint press conference with his French counterpart, President Emmanuel
Macron, in Paris on Thursday, President Trump said, "Today we
face new threats from rogue regimes like North Korea, Iran and Syria,
and the governments that finance and support them." It is yet unclear
what exactly the two presidents may have discussed when it comes to
Iran, but one can hope they will present a united front standing
against the regime going forward.
And the U.S. should say so. Per the Iran Nuclear Review
Act of 2015, the Trump administration is required to certify to
Congress every 90 days that Iran is in compliance with the July 2015
nuclear deal (the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, or JCPOA) and
that this agreement is in the national-security interests of the
United States. The next certification is due on July 17, 2017. It is
crucial that the Trump administration, in the next JCPOA
certification statement, correct the gross error it made in April,
when it certified that Iran was complying with this agreement and
that the JCPOA is in the national-security interests of our country.
Unfortunately, the administration reportedly might make this same
mistake again.
Friday marks two years since the five permanent members
of the UN Security Council, plus Germany and Iran, finalized the
terms of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, an agreement which
legitimized Iran's industrial-sized nuclear program and paved the
rogue regime's pathway to a nuclear weapon. In a newly-released
report, the U.N. disclosed numerous Iranian violations of the
Security Council resolution implementing the deal, ranging from
ballistic missile tests to illegal arms shipments to terrorist groups
throughout the Middle East. The response to these infractions by our
global partners has been finger waving at best and implicit approval
at worst.
It was important that President Donald Trump open his
meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin by raising the point of
Russian meddling in American elections. It was equally important that
he accepted Mr. Putin's response. Russia - whether as the USSR or the
Russian Federation - has spent decades trying to undermine American
confidence in its system of economics and government, including
confidence in its elections. As a national insurance carrier says,
"It's what they do." Most Americans know that and worry
more about the integrity of voter rolls than about what the Russians
want us to think. Which is wise, because the next part of the
Trump-Putin conversation was more important precisely because it was
ahistorical. The U.S.-Russian joint announcement of a cease-fire for
the southwest corner of Syria seriously affects Jordan and Israel,
both of whom had been increasingly concerned about Iranian and
Hezbollah activity in the area. The U.S., Jordan and Russia have been
discussing the parameters of the agreement for some time now, with
Israel - not in the room - weighing in with all three.
It's been a fiery couple of days on the set of
"Tucker Carlson Tonight." The famously combative Fox News
host, who also happens to be my former boss, has been engaged in
something of a foreign policy royal rumble with Republican foreign
policy analysts Ralph Peters and Max Boot. The fireworks started when
Peters compared Carlson to Charles Lindbergh because Tucker
questioned whether Russian President Vladimir Putin and Syrian leader
Bashar Assad were really serious threats to the United States.
Shockingly, being compared to a Nazi apologist didn't sit well with
Tucker and the segment quickly became, shall we say, more lively? The
next night, Tucker brought on Boot (who had praised Peters on
Twitter) for another entertaining, if not always illuminating, display
of verbal fisticuffs. Who you think won these rather nasty battles
likely depends on what your foreign policy worldview is. But whether
or not you agree with Carlson's foreign policy worldview - which is
close to, if not exactly the same as, Rand Paul's non-interventionism
- he is asking legitimate questions that deserve to be answered and
debated.
There is a map distributed by the Center for American
War Studies showing the areas of proliferation and control of ISIS.
Since 2014, there has always been a large black dot on the map with
lines connected to it. In the last version of the map this point
representing the city of Mosul disappeared. The city was liberated
from the terrorist organization and both Iraqis and Americans saw it
as a historic moment. In an interview with reporters at the Pentagon,
the commander of the coalition forces against ISIS General Townsend
asserted that it is important to reach a political consensus between
the Iraqi parties; specifically pointing out that the Sunnis of Iraq
have long considered that the government in Baghdad does not
represent them. Ashton Carter, who since the beginning of 2015 until
the beginning of this year has supervised the war against ISIS, wrote
a column in the Washington Post in which he said he was less worried
about the military campaign in Iraq than "the political and
economic campaigns that must follow."
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