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TOP STORIES
OPEC members Iran and Venezuela could lose almost 30
percent of their oil output next year due to U.S. sanctions and
economic upheaval, requiring extra supplies from the group's Gulf
members, the International Energy Agency said.
The United Kingdom Home Secretary Sajid Javid plans to
outlaw all of the Lebanese terrorist organization Hezbollah in
Britain later in 2018, according to a report in the London-based
Jewish Chronicle on Tuesday... The United Kingdom merely banned
Hezbollah's so-called military wing in 2008 because Hezbollah
attacked British troops in Iraq. The only European country to have
imposed a full ban on Hezbollah is the Netherlands.
Iraqi Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, whose coalition won
the largest number of seats in last month's parliamentary elections,
has announced an alliance with an Iran-backed coalition ahead of
marathon negotiations to form a new government. The move, announced
by al-Sadr and Hadi al-Amiri of the Fatah coalition in the revered
southern Shiite city of Najaf, came largely as a surprise as al-Sadr
has been touting himself as a nationalist leader who opposes Iranian
influence in Iraq.
UANI IN THE NEWS
I think the summit at Singapore was a success... What is
the relevance to the Iranian negotiations?... In some ways, what the
Obama administration and our European allies did with the Iranians is
a template for what not to do here.
NUCLEAR DEAL & NUCLEAR PROGRAM
President Hassan Rouhani says Iran will not be able to
remain in the 2015 nuclear accord unless it benefits from the
agreement's provisions. In a phone conversation with French President
Emmanuel Macron on Tuesday, Rouhani said the Europeans must find a
way to compensate Iran if they want to preserve the landmark
agreement, following President Donald Trump's decision to withdraw
from the deal and restore sanctions.
French President Emmanuel Macron told his Iranian
counterpart Hassan Rouhani on Tuesday that he remained committed to
the nuclear deal with world powers, but that Tehran needed to fully
comply with its commitments.
Iran's President Hassan Rouhani spoke with French
President Emmanuel Macron by phone on Tuesday, expressing his
pleasure at Europe's continued support of the nuclear agreement
despite U.S. withdrawal.
President Donald Trump's triumphant assertions about the
success of the unprecedented Singapore summit are being met with
skepticism and outright derision from critics seizing on the
contradiction between his withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal and
his willingness to accept vague pledges from North Korean leader Kim
Jong Un.
No sooner had President Trump shaken hands with Kim Jong
Un than President Barack Obama's deputy secretary of state started
arguing that the ideal template for the Korean talks is - wait for it
- the Iran deal... What strikes me about the situation in Korea,
though, is not the similarities in respect of Iran but the
differences. They tend to work in favor of Trump - though no one
denies the risks in Korea.
SANCTIONS, BUSINESS RISKS, & OTHER ECONOMIC NEWS
Iran will issue bonds in the coming months to fund oil
projects, the head of its Securities and Exchange Organization (SEO)
said on Tuesday, a month after the United States withdrew from a
nuclear deal and said it would reimpose unilateral sanctions.
India's oil imports from Iran surged to about 705,000
barrels per day (bpd) in May, their highest level since October 2016,
according to data from shipping and industry sources, despite the
threats of fresh U.S. sanctions. From June India's oil imports
from Iran could drop because at least two refiners - accounting for
about 35 percent of Indian refining capacity of around 5 million bpd
- are preparing to curb purchases under pressure from the U.S.
sanctions.
SYRIA, RUSSIA, ISRAEL, HEZBOLLAH, LEBANON & IRAN
Trump was right to call on the Saudis in particular to
play a bigger role in Syria. If Saudi Arabia is truly concerned about
the Iranian presence in Syria, it should seek to get Tehran out
itself and not wait for the Americans or the Israelis to do it. When
Syrians are able to gain the freedom they have demanded since 2011,
only then will Iran be forced out of the game.
It is a commonly held view that Iran has emerged as a
winner from the war that has raged in Syria since 2011. Though the
survival of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad's regime is now
virtually guaranteed, this is a Pyrrhic victory: Iran has been
dragged into a costly quagmire with no end in sight. Iran is obliged
to remain in Syria for years - possibly decades - with Russia, to
prop up a hollowed out and brutally corrupt regime.
PROTESTS & HUMAN RIGHTS
The U.S. is expected to soon tighten the screws even
further by imposing the "strongest sanctions in history" in
an effort to limit Iran's missile program as well as achieve broader
aims of restraining its foreign policy or even regime change. Even
though the U.S. acted without the other five countries that signed
the deal, this has already hurt Iran's economy and pushed its
currency to a record low. As a result, truckers and other aggrieved
workers, who were already under pressure because of low wages, have
begun protesting for better pay and conditions. Does this suggest
President Donald Trump's harsh anti-Iran strategy is working?
In the wake of the nationwide protests that gripped Iran
at the turn of 2018, leading to over two dozen deaths and putting
hundreds behind bars, President Hassan Rouhani was among the few
within the ruling elite to express the need for "authorized
protest sites." After a few months, the idea now seems closer to
being translated into action.
A female Indian chess player said Wednesday she has
decided to not participate in an Asian championship being held in
Iran next month because she could not comply with an Iranian rule
requiring women participants to wear a headscarf.
TERRORISM & EXTREMISM
With a new wave of US sanctions just two months away,
there appears to be growing opposition in Tehran to the Iranian
government's long-standing policy of falling into line with
international rules to prevent terrorism financing and money laundering.
Israel's Public Security Minister Gilad Erdan urged
social media giant Twitter to deactivate accounts linked to terror
groups such as Hamas, Hezbollah, and Islamic Jihad, warning that the
microblogging site could face possible criminal charges in Israel if
it refuses to do so.
The Trump State Department said Tuesday it is taking a
top Iranian official's explanation of events linked to the travel of
the 9/11 terrorist attackers as an admission of guilt in facilitating
the terrorist attacks on the World Trade Center in New York City,
according to comments provided to the Washington Free
Beacon.
The incoming head of Ontario's local government said he
will work to ban an annual anti-Israel rally from taking place in
Toronto in the future, after a speaker at a march last week called
for the "eradication" of Zionists... The Iran-initiated
annual day of worldwide protest takes place on the last Friday of
Ramadan, and usually features flags of the Iran-backed terror group
Hezbollah and sees calls for Israel's destruction from speakers and
activists.
TURKEY & IRAN
Turkey is in contact with Iran about conducting a
possible military operation against Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK)
militants in the northern Iraq region of Qandil, close to the Iranian
border, Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu said.
FOREIGN AFFAIRS
Surprising the opposition, Liberals in the [Canadian
House of] Commons passed a strongly-worded Conservative motion
condemning the Iranian regime on Tuesday. The move saw Prime Minister
Justin Trudeau and much of his caucus rise to agree to "strongly
condemn the current regime in Iran," to call on the government
to "abandon its current plan and immediately cease any and all
negotiations or discussions" to restore diplomatic relations,
and to immediately list a branch of Iran's military as a terrorist
entity under Canada's Criminal Code - an action that not even the
United States has taken.
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