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TOP STORIES
Japanese oil refiners may have to stop loading Iranian
crude oil from Oct. 1 if Japan's government does not secure an
exemption from U.S. sanctions to allow imports to continue, the
president of the Petroleum Association of Japan (PAJ) said on Friday.
Iran, Hezbollah and other Tehran-backed militias in
Syria have begun withdrawing from the disputed Golan Heights border
with Israel, a watchdog group announced Thursday.
An Iranian businessman schemed to illegally export from
Illinois aluminum tubing used in the missile and aerospace
industries, according to an indictment made public Thursday in
federal court in Chicago.
NUCLEAR DEAL & NUCLEAR PROGRAM
The remaining signatories of the multinational nuclear
deal with Iran, known as the "JCPOA", have met for the
first time in a bid to save the landmark pact following the US
decision to unilaterally withdraw and reimpose sanctions on Tehran...
Abbas Araghchi, Iran's deputy foreign minister, told reporters in
Vienna that Tehran was negotiating with the other signatories
"to see if they can provide us with a package which can give
Iran the benefits of sanctions lifting... I told the conference today
that the JCPOA is in the intensive care unit because it has lost its
balance as a result of US withrawal from the deal," Mr Araghchi
said.
SANCTIONS, BUSINESS RISKS, & OTHER ECONOMIC NEWS
OPEC has reached an agreement in principle to boost oil
production, achieving a last-minute compromise that overcame Iran's
threats to veto any supply hike.
The U.S. has asked Japan to completely halt oil imports
from Iran, going beyond the reductions that were demanded when
sanctions were imposed earlier this decade, according to people with
knowledge of the matter.
India is looking to revive a rupee trade mechanism to
settle part of its oil payments to Iran, fearing channels to pay
Tehran might choke under pressure from U.S. sanctions, a government
source said on Friday.
India is trying to make Chabahar Port in Iran
operational by 2019, the government said in a statement on Friday,
despite a threat of renewed U.S. sanctions against Tehran.
The new US ambassador to Germany, Richard Grenell,
requested the German government to block Iran's Mahan Air from flying
within German airspace and deny it landing rights in the country
because of the airline's material support for terrorism.
U.S. sanctions on Iran will not affect an Iraqi-Iranian
deal on swapping crude oil, Iraqi Oil Minister Jabar al-Luaibi said
on Friday during an OPEC meeting to discuss production levels.
U.S.-IRAN RELATIONS
Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and his Iranian
counterpart squared off in a battle of strongly-worded statements
this week, with Pompeo tweeting his apparent support for Iranian
anti-government protestors, and Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad
Javad Zarif lamenting a US foreign policy "in crisis."
A senior aide to Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali
Khamenei has claimed that the U.S. was behind the creation of ISIS
and other extremist groups in Syria.
CONGRESS & IRAN
Leading members of Congress are urging the Trump
administration to pressure world leaders to ban Iran from accessing
international financial systems following revelations the former
Obama administration secretly helped Tehran skirt international
sanctions to potentially access billions in hard currency, according
to a letter sent Thursday to the Treasury Departments.
SYRIA, RUSSIA, ISRAEL, HEZBOLLAH, LEBANON & IRAN
A Syrian war monitor group said Thursday that Hezbollah
units deployed in Syria were pulling back dozens of kilometers from
the Israeli border in response to a request from Russia, but that
Iran was refusing to do the same with its forces in the area. The
UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, citing what it
described as "reliable sources," said that the Lebanese
terror group and its allied gunmen have begun withdrawing to
positions 40 kilometers (25 miles) away for the border, and a similar
distance from the Jordanian-Syrian border.
Syrian government helicopters dropped barrel bombs on
opposition areas of the southwest on Friday for the first time in a
year, a war monitor and a rebel said, escalating an assault that has
so far included artillery but only limited use of air power.
The Al-Mustafa community center in the city-state of
Bremen in northern Germany is a major hub for raising funds for the
EU and US designated terrorist organization Hezbollah in Lebanon,
according to a German intelligence report reviewed by The Jerusalem
Post on Thursday.
Lebanon's interior minister tried on Wednesday to calm a
dispute over a change in rules for entering the country, which some
politicians feared reflects deepening influence of Iran and its ally
Hezbollah. The move by a state security agency allows entry for
Iranians at the airport without their passports being stamped.
Israel is preparing to buy a range of new weapons in
preparation for a possible attack on Iran should that country appear
to restart efforts to develop a nuclear weapon.
Hezbollah and Iran have accumulated a substantial amount
of weapons and fighters in Syria that pose a threat to the United
States and its allies in the region. In response, Israel has
conducted a growing number of strikes against Iranian, Hezbollah and
other targets in Syria. An escalating war has the potential to cause
significant economic damage, lead to high numbers of civilian
casualties and internally displaced persons, and involve more
countries in the region than did the 2006 Lebanon War.
Russia does not expect an imminent war between Hezbollah
and Israel, Moscow's envoy to Lebanon said in remarks published
Friday.
The Al-Mustafa community center in the city-state of
Bremen in northern Germany is a major hub for raising funds for the
EU and US designated terrorist organization Hezbollah in Lebanon,
according to a German intelligence report reviewed by The Jerusalem Post
on Thursday. The Bremen intelligence agency's newly released report
in June stated that the "The Al-Mustafa Community center
supports Hezbollah in Lebanon, especially by collecting
donations."
A top aide to Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei warns
that the US presence in Syria would turn the country into America's
"second Vietnam," according to the official Fars news
agency... The comments come as Iran resists pressure to remove its
own forces from Syria and accuses the US in turn of digging in to
support its allies in the war-riven country.
United States President Trump's withdrawal from the
Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) re-opens America's gun
ports for an economic broadside to punish Iran's continued
destabilizing activities throughout the region. However, without a
unified effort with the European Union and America's regional allies,
there is the danger that Russia stands to gain from the geopolitical
melee.
As international companies leave Iran under U.S.
pressure, the Iranian government is scrambling to salvage as much
foreign investment as possible. The top leadership in Tehran believes
the solution is to engage with Russia, China, and the
"east" to replace the West's hesitant commitment to the
Iranian market. But this eastward approach is a pipe dream, and there
is plenty of history to prove it.
PROTESTS & HUMAN RIGHTS
When Hassan Rouhani ran for president of Iran in 2013,
he campaigned on the promise of promoting human rights and individual
freedoms in a country that retained a strong authoritarian bent. Five
years after his election, it is becoming clear that Mr. Rouhani has
failed to deliver on these promises. Last week's arrest of prominent
human rights lawyer Nasrin Sotoudeh is a telling reminder that the
regime's repressive tactics remain largely unchanged.
An Iranian campaigner for women's access to men's
sporting events in Iran says she is unimpressed by authorities
allowing women into a Tehran stadium to watch a telecast of Iran's
latest World Cup match... "It hurts to see the world considering
that Iranian women watching the Iran-Spain game on a big screen is a
major victory," [Darya] Safai said. "As long as women can't
buy tickets for and attend a real football game at Azadi stadium,
which during real games is filled only with cheering men, this is not
a victory, and we will continue our battle against this
discrimination."
OTHER IRANIAN INTERNAL DEVELOPMENTS
Migration to cities due to water scarcity and widening
gulf between the younger generations will lead to disenchantment.
IRANIAN REGIONAL AGGRESSION
German Chancellor Angela Merkel on Thursday said
European countries shared concern over Iran's ballistic missile
programme and called for solutions to its "aggressive
tendencies" in the Middle East.
GULF STATES, YEMEN, & IRAN
The Iranian Navy's 54th flotilla of warships is on an
overseas mission to international waters... The naval fleet,
comprising the Kharg Helicopter Carrier and Sabalan Destroyer, is on
its way to the Indian Ocean. It will later arrive in the Gulf of Aden
and Bab el-Mandeb Strait.
OTHER FOREIGN AFFAIRS
President Donald Trump's tough stance on Iran, new
tariffs on European Union metal imports and U.S. demands for higher
defence spending in Europe are part of a strategy to strengthen the
West, a senior U.S. official said on Thursday.
Iran's recent moves against Morocco's national
sovereignty reflect its intention to continue on its path towards
global domination by destabilizing pro-Western countries. Tehran is
shifting its attention towards Africa, which is less on the Western
radar following the American withdrawal from the JCPOA.
CYBERWARFARE
Germany has voiced concern about increasing cyberattacks
from Iran, Russia and China. The head of Germany's domestic
intelligence agency Bfv, Hans-Georg Maassen told the reporting
network Redaktionsnetzwerk Deutschland that the "quantity and
quality of cyber campaigns staged by foreign intelligence services
has been on the rise" this year.
MISCELLANEOUS
The European signatories of the 2015 Iran nuclear deal
have been primarily focusing in the aftermath of last month's US
pullout from the pact on "avoiding a military
confrontation," senior French sources told Asharq Al-Awsat. They
asserted that some sides inside Iran "want and seek" this
confrontation, whereas Germany, Britain and France, in cooperation
with Russia and China, are striving to avoid reaching the "point
of no return."
From Lebanon to Yemen, Iran's influence is being
challenged... Alleged Israeli strikes and a new U.S. base add
military pressure on an already troubled economy... And even Russia
may be turning a cold shoulder... To use the language of sport for a
minute, in the spirit of the World Cup soccer tournament now underway
in Russia, what is being executed in the Middle East now is a
full-court press.
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