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Top Stories
Reuters:
"Years before he became Iran's president-elect, Hassan Rohani spoke
approvingly about concealing his nation's nuclear program and said that
when Pakistan got atomic bombs and Brazil began enriching uranium, 'the
world started to work with them.' The comments offer an intriguing window
into the past thinking of Rohani, widely seen as a moderate or pragmatic
conservative, whose surprise victory in weekend elections to succeed
President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was perceived by the United States and
other Western powers as positive - at least at first glance. Rohani has
said he intends to pursue constructive interaction with the world and
'more active' negotiations over Iran's nuclear program, after his
predecessor's belligerence was met with painful international sanctions
and military threats from Israel and the United States... Western
diplomats familiar with Rohani's work as chief nuclear negotiator from
2003 to 2005 told Reuters the 64-year-old cleric was no pushover and had
always been firmly committed to Iran's nuclear program... He argued in
favor of a kind of nuclear fait accompli to force the West to accept
Iran's enrichment capabilities. He also referred to Pakistan's successful
acquisition of nuclear weapons in a positive light." http://t.uani.com/19ilNXh
Al-Monitor:
"The surprise election of pragmatic former nuclear negotiator Hassan
Rouhani has won few converts on Capitol Hill, but new sanctions
legislation could be avoided or postponed if there is progress in Iran's
cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). At a
hearing on June 18, before the House Foreign Relations Subcommittee on
the Middle East and North Africa, several expert witnesses implored
Congress to give Rouhani time to alter Iran's nuclear trajectory before
seeking to impose new penalties. If their advice changed any minds in a
body that has passed ever-tougher sanctions against Iran, no member of
the committee was willing to say so. Asked at the conclusion of the
hearing whether the witnesses' views had altered hers, Republican Ileana
Ros-Lehtinen of Florida, chair of the subcommittee, told Al-Monitor, 'Not
at all. We need to continue our sanctions policy and help our allies to
see the light that a nuclear Iran will destroy the United States and will
destroy Israel.' Ranking Democratic subcommittee member Ted Deutch of
Florida was less apocalyptic in his description of Iran's aims but
equally adamant that the House should go forward with a new bill that
would designate Iran's Revolutionary Guards a terrorist organization and
require President Barack Obama to work to take another million barrels a
day of Iranian oil off the market - essentially ending Iranian oil
exports, which have already dropped in half over the past two years. The
bill has already been approved by the full committee and awaits action on
the House floor." http://t.uani.com/12b2yc1
FT:
"Iran's national football team on Tuesday qualified for the 2014
World Cup in Brazil, giving the country another excuse to party after a
weekend of celebration over the victory of president-elect Hassan
Rohani... On the capital's streets, residents held up Iranian flags and
pictures of Mr Rohani, and wore purple wristbands, the colour of his
campaign. Many also wore green - the colour of the reformist opposition
in the 2009 presidential election which led to widespread unrest
following opposition allegations of massive fraud. 'Rohani, Moussavi [the
jailed opposition leader], we have gone to World Cup,' people chanted...
The Islamic regime in Tehran, which is usually wary of street rallies in
case they lead to political demonstrations or 'unIslamic' behaviour -
such as men and women dancing together - allowed Iranians across the
country to celebrate the victory of Mr Rohani without intervening,
despite the chanting of anti-regime slogans. Analysts believe this was a
deliberate move to allow the release of popular frustration with the
economy, notably high inflation and unemployment." http://t.uani.com/11LtC1F
Nuclear Program
Haaretz: "Prime Minister
Benjamin Netanyahu said Tuesday that Israel will not accept Iranian
uranium enrichment at any level. 'We cannot accept anything less than the
total cessation of all enrichment of nuclear materials at all levels,
removal from Iran of all enriched nuclear material, closure of Iran's
illicit nuclear facilities,' Netanyahu said during a meeting with
Canadian Foreign Minister John Baird. 'Until Iran meets these demands,
pressure must be stepped up and Iranian nuclear program must be stopped.
Period.' Netanyahu warned against the new Iranian President Hasan
Rowhani, saying that his strategy is to calm the international community
while quietly advancing the nuclear program. 'He is the author of a
document - you could call it talk and enrich - that is, talk and continue
to enrich uranium. For nuclear weapons. He wrote this in the book. He
said that by calming international community, Iran is able to steadily
move forward in its nuclear weapons program. We cannot allow Iran to play
this game. We cannot let Iran ride out the clock.'" http://t.uani.com/11Zmd2F
Sanctions
Reuters:
"The UK's highest court has ruled that the British government was
wrong to have imposed sanctions on an Iranian bank in 2009 over alleged
links to Iran's nuclear program. The Supreme Court decision on Wednesday
mirrored a January ruling by the European Union's General Court, which
overturned sanctions imposed in 2010, and could result in the bank suing
Britain for damages. Bank Mellat said in January that it would sue
individual governments for damages, and a bank spokesman told Reuters on
Wednesday that it is considering launching a claim against Britain that
'could exceed 500 million pounds.'" http://t.uani.com/16JxHIO
Syrian Civil
War
AP:
"Many exchange shops closed in Damascus on Tuesday, fearing more
chaos a day after the Syrian currency plunged to a new record low,
reflecting growing fears in the capital following a U.S. decision to arm
rebel groups fighting to topple President Bashar Assad's regime. The
currency woes add to the embattled president's troubles, and government
officials rushed to allay public fears by announcing Damacus' top ally
Iran was extending a credit line to make up for market needs. Traders in
the capital said a rush to buy U.S. dollars on Monday sent the Syrian
pound's value tumbling to 210 to the dollar, compared to 170 just that
morning. Many exchange shops closed Tuesday while others opened their
doors without doing business, saying it was difficult to value the
pound." http://t.uani.com/11O1JHc
Reuters:
"Saudi Arabia's former intelligence chief, Prince Muqrin, once told
American diplomats the Middle East's so-called Shi'ite Crescent where the
Muslim sect holds sway was 'becoming a full moon' as Iranian influence
spread. For the kingdom's Sunni ruling princes, that fear, revealed in a
2009 U.S. embassy cable released by WikiLeaks, now focuses on Syria.
Iran-backed President Bashar al-Assad's forces are advancing with the aid
of Lebanese Hezbollah Shi'ite fighters, while Riyadh supports the Sunni
rebels fighting against him. It is a war increasingly seen in Riyadh as
the fulcrum of a wider geopolitical struggle with Iran, a country it
believes is radical, expansionist and militant, and a potential threat to
Saudi Arabia itself. 'If the Syrian government wins, it will prove to
other Arab countries that Iran is able to protect its allies in the
region. This will undermine Western alliances and Western allies,' said
Abdulaziz al-Sager, head of the Gulf Research Centre in Jeddah." http://t.uani.com/12Veoi0
Foreign Affairs
WSJ:
"Iran is taking advantage of the confusion surrounding Yemen's
transition of government to gain a new foothold in the country, Yemeni
and Western officials say, as Tehran seeks military allies operating near
one of the world's most strategic waterways for oil shipments. Iran is
training militants who are aligned with a separatist movement in southern
Yemen, while Iran's Lebanese proxy, Hezbollah, is providing some funding
and media training to the group, people familiar with the situation say.
Iran has also directed arms, including heat-seeking missiles, toward
these militants, Yemeni and Western officials say, citing intelligence
reports. The outreach comes as Tehran has sought to bolster its influence
in a region reshaped by two years of uprisings. A tie to Yemeni militants
could provide Iran with a strategic pressure point-one akin to its
alliance with Hezbollah in Lebanon, just across the border from Tehran's
avowed enemy Israel." http://t.uani.com/16gpT0p
Opinion &
Analysis
The Economist:
"The eleventh-hour coalition between Iran's reformists and Mr Rohani
moved Iran's long-marginalised reformist opposition towards the political
centre ground. A day later, the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei,
called on all Iranians, even those who 'do not support the Islamic
system', to cast their ballot. This rhetorical peace-offering to
anti-establishment voters, including large numbers of reformists, brought
Iran's conservatives closer towards its 'seditious' enemies. Mr Rohani is
expected to form a government including moderates from both camps. This
bridge might bring about some consensus between a reform movement that is
rooted in the post-war 'Islamic intellectualism' of the early 1990s and a
conservative current, which has been particularly potent in Iran over the
past eight years. Mr Rohani's conservative opponents, Iran's supreme
leader and even the Revolutionary Guard have all issued statements in
support of the president-elect, who will take office on August 3rd.
Markets reacted positively to the news. Compared with the bloody scenes
which followed the disputed vote in 2009, this year's election went
without a hitch. No batons were raised in anger and none of Iran's 'red
lines' on campaigning was breached; it barely seemed like a fight at all.
It has been a blessing for reformists, who hope a Rohani presidency could
help boost the country's moribund economy and ease the suffocating
security atmosphere. It may be an even bigger blessing for Mr Khamenei
and the conservative establishment who can claim renewed legitimacy over
a unified Iran, amid the instability rocking Iraq, Syria and Turkey. The
new president is a pragmatist and may herald some shift in domestic
politics and in the tone of international negotiations, but he remains very
much an establishment figure and proposes no change of course in the
substance of the Islamic Republic's regime, nor its foreign policy."
http://t.uani.com/11nzX7N
Michael Singh in
WashPost: "The election of Hassan Rouhani as Iran's
next president has prompted two sorts of reactions among U.S. officials
and Iranian analysts. Some see in Rouhani's victory a reformist
resurgence and are urging the Obama administration to reach out in an
effort to 'strengthen' him, much as the Clinton administration sought to
do after the election of Mohammad Khatami in 1997. Others see a wily
trick by Iran's supreme leader, seeking to slough off the pressure of
sanctions by presenting a smiling face to the world and buy more time
with diplomacy while expanding Iran's nuclear activities in the
background. The challenge for the Obama administration is that it cannot
yet know which interpretation is correct. It cannot dismiss the
possibility that international pressure on Iran has finally produced the
sort of change it has been waiting for, but it also cannot risk
alleviating that painstakingly-accumulated pressure based on mere hope or
speculation. Unlike outgoing President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who was a
relative unknown in the West when he was first elected to the presidency,
Rouhani is someone with whom the United States and its allies are well
acquainted. From his past statements and positions, we know that Rouhani,
far from being a reformist, is a regime insider who has played a key role
in advancing Iran's nuclear program, regional activities and even
domestic repression. To the extent he has demonstrated pragmatism or a
preference for diplomacy, it has been in service of the regime's ends,
not in an effort to change them. He has described, for example, how he
was able to use diplomacy to buy time and space for Iran to perfect its
centrifuge program during his stint as nuclear negotiator. That said, it
cannot be ruled out that Rouhani has taken stock of Iran's dire economic
straits and concluded that change is now necessary. If he has, then the
question will be whether he will be given the authority to make that
change; in other words, whether Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei,
who by all accounts makes the key decisions on Iran's nuclear program and
other matters of vital interest to the United States, has also concluded
that change is necessary and has deputized Rouhani to achieve it. If this
is the case, there may be early signs. If, for example, Rouhani is
permitted to replace Iran's nuclear negotiating team (headed by his
erstwhile presidential rival, Saeed Jalili), release opposition leaders
from house arrest and make decisions on Iranian policy toward strategic
issues like Syria, it may be a signal that he is vested with greater
authority than his predecessors. If not, then Rouhani may either be mired
in power struggles with Tehran's multiple and overlapping elites, or,
more troubling, his elevation may simply be meant to distract the
regime's domestic and foreign detractors. In determining its response,
the Obama administration is unlikely to have the luxury of waiting to see
how these dynamics inside the Iranian regime play out. It must decide on
a policy today - one which is neither prematurely dismissive, nor
preemptively accommodating. In this vein, the administration should focus
on Iranian actions, not Iranian personalities." http://t.uani.com/1bVCwiE
Daniel Nisman in
WSJ: "For those who have hoped that the Syrian
quagmire might swallow up Iran's influence in the region, it's time to
wake up: Tehran and its ally Hezbollah are set to emerge from the Syrian
conflict more aggressive than ever... Contrary to common perceptions,
Hezbollah's ambitions stretch far beyond protecting Lebanon's
once-demeaned Shiite community or defending the country against Israeli
occupation. Hezbollah is a political Islamist organization that seeks to
export its version of Shiite Islam throughout Lebanon and the greater
Muslim world. The Iranian Revolution enabled the group's emergence as an
anti-Western military force in the early 1980s. The resemblance of
Hezbollah's emblem with that of Iran's Revolutionary Guard is no
coincidence... Iran is also likely to continue leveraging the Assad
regime to transport weapons to Hezbollah's coffers, despite threats of
additional Israeli airstrikes. Hezbollah's acquisition of Iranian
anti-air, anti-ship and surface-to-surface missiles would not only
guarantee Mr. Nasrallah long-term military hegemony within and without
Lebanon. It would also provide Tehran with a greater deterrent against
any future Israeli strike on its nuclear facilities. It's doubtful
whether the West fully comprehends the implications of Hezbollah's
growing involvement in Syria. The European Union continues to fumble over
whether or not to blacklist Hezbollah as a terror group, which would do
untold damage to the group's financial operations across the Continent.
The U.S., meanwhile, has only begun to warm up to the idea of arming the
Syrian rebels. Rather than confront the looming threat of Hezbollah,
Western strategists are still grappling with concerns over which rebel
group to arm, or what regime might replace Assad's. They fail to realize
that if Hezbollah's involvement continues unchecked, these questions will
become irrelevant. The time has come for the West to stop obsessing about
the risks of stopping the Assad regime, Hezbollah and Iran, and start
considering the consequences of not stopping them." http://t.uani.com/11O2YWJ
Steve Hanke in
HuffPo: "With the election of Hassan Rouhani as
Iran's new president, there has been a cascade of reportage in the
popular press about that opaque country. When it comes to economic data,
Iran has resorted to lying, spinning and concealment - in part, because
of its mores and history, and more recently, the ever-tightening
international sanctions regime. In short, deception has been the order of
the day. The most egregious example of this deception concerns one of
Iran's most pressing economic problems - rampant inflation. Indeed, while
the rest of the world watched Iran's economy briefly slip into
hyperinflation in October of 2012, the Statistical Centre of Iran and
Iran's central bank both defiantly reported only mild upticks in
inflation. It is, therefore, rather surprising that the major
international news outlets have continued to report the official
inflation data without so much as questioning their accuracy. Even today,
with official data putting Iran's annual inflation rate at a mere 31
percent, respectable news sources faithfully report these bogus data as
fact. As I have documented, regimes in countries undergoing severe
inflation have a long history of hiding the true extent of their
inflationary woes. In many cases, such as the recent hyperinflation
episodes in Zimbabwe and North Korea, the regimes resort to
under-reporting or simply fabricating statistics to hide their economic
problems. Often, they stop reporting economic data all together; or, when
they do report economic statistics, they do so with such a lag that the
reported data are of limited use by the time they see the light of day.
Iran has followed this course - failing to report important economic data
in a timely and replicable manner. Those data that are reported tend to
possess what I've described as an 'Alice in Wonderland' quality. In light
of this, it is fair to suggest that any official data on Iran's inflation
be taken with a grain of salt... At present the black-market IRR/USD
exchange rate sits at 36,450. Using this figure, and a time series of
black-market exchange rate data that I have collected over the past year
from currency traders in the bazaars of Tehran, I estimate that Iran's
current annual inflation rate is 105.8 percent - a rate almost three and
a half times the official annual inflation figure (see the accompanying
chart)." http://t.uani.com/11Zn8Ar
UANI Advisory
Board Member Irwin Cotler in JPost: "In elections
heralded as being neither free nor fair - with the candidates preselected
for their loyalty to the supreme leader, and the voters suffering under
massive domestic repression - Iranians overwhelmingly elected a
'moderate' cleric, Hassan Rohani, as president, an outcome that has been
hailed as a harbinger of positive change. It is true that, during the
campaign, Rohani appeared to reject the hard line favored by his
predecessor, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. He spoke in debates of improving
relations with the West, of establishing a ministry for women's affairs,
and of creating more opportunities and freedoms for the country's youth.
His tone is undoubtedly less incendiary than that to which the world has
become accustomed from Iranian leadership, and his message has been one
of responsiveness, inclusiveness and accountability. However, Rohani is
the same person who struck a conciliatory posture as Iran's top nuclear
negotiator, under another reformist president, Mohammed Khatami, while
presiding over the secret advance of the nuclear program. Rohani was the
one who boasted that, even when Iran had suspended uranium enrichment, it
was able to make its greatest nuclear advances, saying, "While we
were talking with the Europeans in Tehran, we were installing equipment
in parts of the facility in Isfahan," a crucial nuclear site. 'In
fact, by creating a calm environment, we were able to complete the work
in Isfahan.' Simply put, Rohani had patented the strategy of using
negotiations - or negotiations about negotiations - as a cover for the
uranium enrichment program. And more: Rohani is the same person who,
while calling in campaign speeches for greater responsiveness to the
needs of young people, had presided over the crackdown on student
protesters in 1999, declaring then that student demonstrators who had
damaged public property were 'enemies of the state,' a charge that
carried with it the threat of execution. The person who seeks a new
conciliatory approach with the world - and an end to confrontationist
rhetoric - also referred to Israel as 'the great Zionist Satan' in an
address last year. Most important, Rohani was a party to an undemocratic
election charade, one of a vetted group of candidates, all supreme loyalists
to Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, all with ties to the
Iranian Revolutionary Guards, all supportive of the Iranian nuclear
program." http://t.uani.com/12b5BAQ
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Eye on Iran is a periodic news summary from United Against
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