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TOP STORIES
Saudi Arabia's powerful deputy crown prince ruled out on
Tuesday any dialogue with arch rival Iran and pledged to protect his
conservative kingdom from what he called Tehran's efforts to dominate
the Muslim world. In unusually blunt remarks, Prince Mohammed bin
Salman said any struggle for influence between the Sunni Muslim
kingdom and the revolutionary Shi'ite theocracy ought to take place
"inside Iran, not in Saudi Arabia". He did not elaborate.
Prince Mohammed, also defence minister and a son of King Salman, also
said in a nationally televised interview that Riyadh had the
resources to crush Iran-aligned Houthi fighters in Yemen, where Saudi
forces head an opposing coalition of Arab states, but that the cost
would be heavy on both sides.
An influential Iranian clerical body on Tuesday threw
its support behind presidential candidate Ebrahim Raisi, giving him a
boost before the country's election on May 19. Raisi, a hard-line
cleric who served for years on Iran's judiciary, is considered the
main rival to President Hassan Rouhani, a pragmatist who is running
for reelection. Four other candidates have also entered the race,
including Tehran Mayor Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf and Vice President
Ishaq Jahangiri. The clerical association, commonly referred to
as Jame Modarresin in Farsi, is a group of seminary teachers from the
holy city of Qom and has a number of high-profile hard-line clerics
among its members. A statement posted on the group's website
Tuesday said that extensive discussions had taken place and that
Raisi was chosen as the "best candidate."
Iran's president must get a second term to secure the
economic benefits that he promised would result from a diplomatic
thaw with the West, Vice President Masoumeh Ebtekar said ahead of a
May 19 election. Hassan Rouhani's hardline challengers for the
presidency, some of whom are close to supreme leader Ayatollah Ali
Khamenei, say he traded away too much in a 2015 deal with world
powers that limited Iran's nuclear work but failed to deliver
sufficient rewards. In a rare interview with a trio of foreign
reporters at an EU-Iran business forum on Sunday, Ebtekar, one of
Iran's 12 vice presidents, said voters should not give up on Rouhani.
IRAN NUCLEAR DEAL
Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif has said that the
next Iranian government should honor the international 2015 nuclear
deal to improve Iranians' living standards, predicting that U.S.
President Donald Trump will extend sanctions waivers as enshrined in
the nuclear accord. The nuclear deal, officially called the
joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, was brokered between Iran, the
five permanent members of the UN Security Council, Germany, and the
European Union in July 2015. It went into effect in January 2016.
Under the the deal, sanctions against Iran were lifted in exchange
for a limit on Tehran's nuclear program. "Time has come for
efforts made within the framework of the JCPOA to bear fruit,"
the foreign minister said in an interview with ISNA published on
Tuesday.
SANCTIONS ENFORCEMENT
Ex-Mayor Rudolph Giuliani and a former U.S. attorney
general seem "surprisingly disingenuous" and dismissive of
the seriousness of criminal charges facing a wealthy Turkish
businessman they've been hired to represent, a judge said on Tuesday.
U.S. District Judge Richard M. Berman commented at a Manhattan court
hearing designed to help him decide if Reza Zarrab understands
conflicts of interest posed by hiring Giuliani and former U.S
Attorney General Michael Mukasey as lawyers to help resolve the case
against him diplomatically outside court. In affidavits written last
month, Giuliani and Mukasey used nearly identical language to say
they were hired to try to resolve the case against Zarrab, a
well-known personality in Turkey accused of violating sanctions
against Iran, as part of a deal between the United States and Turkey
to promote U.S. national security interests.
SANCTIONS RELIEF
President Hassan Rouhani said a strong rebound in
domestic economy fresh out of years of severe sanctions hinges upon a
thriving export sector."Today, Iranian workers' demands go
beyond just payment issues. They want their products to be presented
to the world. The government has been striving to pave the way for
increased exports," the president was quoted as saying by his
official website.He was addressing a gathering of workers on the
occasion of International Workers' Day on Monday.Rouhani acknowledged
that he has not been able to generate as much employment as he
promised during his election campaigning in 2013. He has filed for
reelection in the presidential polls later this month."The
government has created two million jobs but we are all still
suffering from the pain of three million unemployed people," he
said.
SYRIA CONFLICT
Iran will provide military advisers to Syria for as long
as necessary in support of President Bashar al Assad's forces, a
senior commander in the Iranian Revolutionary Guards was quoted on
Tuesday as saying. Iran has provided military support to Assad's
forces since at least 2012, but initially did not comment publicly on
its role. But as the military support increased and Iranian
casualties also rose, officials began to speak more openly. "The
advisory help isn't only in the field of planning but also on
techniques and tactics," the Fars news agency quoted Mohammad
Pakpour, head of the Revolutionary Guard ground forces, as saying.
"And because of this the forces have to be present on the
battlefield" "We will continue our advisory help as long as
they (the Syrians) need it," he added.
"Do we need a new policy on Syria?" This was
the provocative question put by Iranian Diplomacy, a forum for
retired diplomats of the Islamic Republic, in its latest issue in
April. The writer, Mussavi Kahlakhali, claimed that Russia and the
United States are approaching a tacit accord to divide the Syrian
"cake" between them, leaving Islamic Iran to look for the
crumbs. "We may soon find ourselves marginalized by the big
powers in Syria," the writer claims. The writer recalls the
Syrian government's decision to replace English with Russian as the
country's official diplomatic language as a sign that Moscow is
raising its profile in the war-torn country. Assad's Ambassador to
Moscow Riyad Haddad is quoted as saying that the decision is an
indication that Russia is now the key force in shaping Syria's
future.
FOREIGN AFFAIRS
Pakistan says it has reached an agreement with Iran to
strengthen security along the border, where gunmen killed 10 Iranian
border guards last week. The porous border is frequented by drug
smugglers as well as Islamic militants, both of whom have attacked
border patrols in the past. Iranian media blamed last week's attack
on "terrorists" without providing further details. Pakistan
said the agreement was struck Wednesday during talks between visiting
Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif and Pakistani Interior
Minister Chaudhry Nisar Ali Khan.
MILITARY MATTERS
Iran is using the billions in cash resources provided
under the landmark nuclear deal to engage in an unprecedented
military buildup meant to transform the Islamic Republic's fighting
force into an "offensive" juggernaut, according to a
largely unreported announcement by Iranian military leaders that has
sparked concern among U.S. national security insiders and sources on
Capitol Hill. Iranian officials announced late last month that Iran's
defense budget had increased by 145 percent under President Hassan
Rouhani and that the military is moving forward with a massive
restructuring effort aimed at making it "a forward moving
force," according to regional reports.
HUMAN RIGHTS
The campaign headquarters of reformists
in Khorasan Razavi Province, northeastern Iran, was shuttered on May
2, 2017-three weeks before the country's presidential and local
council elections on May 19, the Center for Human Rights in Iran
(CHRI) has learned. The order to shut down the Committee of
Reformists in Khorasan Razavi Province was issued by Judge Hassan
Heidari, the deputy prosecutor of Mashhad, Iran's second largest
city. An informed source told CHRI the headquarters were shuttered
because posters of former reformist President Mohammad Khatami
(1997-2005) had been hung up on the walls along with green banners, a
symbol of Iran's Green Movement. The movement arose from the
widespread peaceful protests that broke out across Iran in 2009 over
the results of that year's presidential election.
DOMESTIC POLITICS
Iran's reformist former president Mohammad Khatami has
skirted a media ban to endorse moderate incumbent Hassan Rouhani for
a second term over conservative challengers in a tight May 19
election. Khatami, who during his 1997-2005 presidency oversaw a
rapprochement with the West, has been barred from speaking openly
since mass protests against the disputed reelection of his hardline
successor Mahmoud Ahmadinejad in 2009. The hardliner's replacement by
Rouhani in 2013 has seen a nuclear deal between Iran and world powers
that led to the lifting of most international economic sanctions but
is threatened by a tougher stance from the new U.S. administration of
Donald Trump.
OPINION & ANALYSIS
It would be easy to assume that Hassan Rouhani is
destined to win re-election in this month's Iranian presidential
vote. His presidency produced the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action
nuclear agreement, or JCPOA, which reduced the chances of war with
the United States and removed the most onerous sanctions on the
Iranian economy. Iran's oil output has increased as inflation has
decreased, and the political system has achieved a degree of
consensus and stability. But the Iranian president is not guaranteed
a second term. Rouhani is poised to face off against hard-line
candidate Ebrahim Raisi -- a largely unknown mid-ranking cleric, but
also a loyal and trusted member of the revolutionary establishment
Rouhani, although deeply committed to the regime, has never been fully
trusted by the security forces, especially Iran's Islamic
Revolutionary Guard Corps, and he has at times disagreed with Iran's
ultimate authority, Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
President Trump's administration has correctly squared
off with Iran, Syria and North Korea, indicating to all parties
involved the years of appeasement with dictators has come to an end.
As Tehran is coming to understand such policy overhauls from the
United States, Trump should also place his crosshairs on Iran's
notorious human rights violations. While Iran does pose a major
military threat, through supporting what has been described by Trump
as "radical Islamist terrorism," Tehran's ongoing human
rights abuses should finally receive the long overdue attention they
deserve. In fact, U.S. interests can be advanced through a robust
challenging of Iran's domestic dissent crackdown. U.S. strategy
seeking to confront Iran would receive a correct boost through
combating Tehran's authoritarian dogma.
We were recently witness to the first debate of Iran's
2017 presidential election, which can be evaluated from a variety of
perspectives. One simple conclusion is that all candidates failed to
provide any hope for a better future. Remembering how the 2009
debates paved the way for nationwide uprisings rattling the regime's
entire establishment, this year's debate was shortened in timing to
prevent any uncontrollable sparks. Despite all this, the arguments
provided a very vivid view into the regime's critical domestic
crises. More important is the fact that, similar to all previous
so-called "elections" in this regime, no candidate was able
to provide a comprehensive political and economic agenda. Twelve
rounds of presidential elections, parliamentary polls and votes for
city councils have provided nothing but more of the same.
If President Trump travels to Riyadh later this month,
as reported, he will find that the six leaders of the Gulf
Coordination Council (GCC) countries hold widely divergent views on
Iran, the extent of the Iranian threat, and how to resolve the
conflict in Yemen. This divergence has made it difficult to
coordinate on a policy to challenge Iran's bad behavior without
tipping the region into open conflict. So far, such efforts have
focused on improving regional defense capabilities and U.S.-GCC
security cooperation. In particular, the Trump administration has
indicated it will help the Saudi-led coalition fight the pro-Iranian
Houthi insurgency in Yemen by providing advanced munitions as well as
logistics and intelligence support.
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