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TOP STORIES
In recent weeks, Total, the French energy giant, has
been sending small amounts of euros from banks in Europe to Tehran.
It was the corporate equivalent of setting up a direct deposit. Total
wanted to test the banking system and learn how difficult it was to
make day-to-day transactions in Iran. As it considers investing in
Iran, the company is moving cautiously. It has assigned a full-time
compliance officer to the country to ensure it doesn't run afoul of
any rules: It can't allow any Americans to work on its projects there,
and has to be careful to avoid sanctioned Iranians. Like many
international oil players, Total has been lured by the promise of a
large and lucrative market with vast energy reserves. But the
changing geopolitical landscape has made companies wary of the
sanctions and restrictions tied to working there.
Iran rejected an allegation by U.S Defense Secretary
James Mattis that it was "the primary exporter of
terrorism" and said on Saturday that the main source was U.S.
ally Saudi Arabia. "Some countries led by America are determined
to ignore the main source of Takfiri-Wahhabi terrorism and
extremism," foreign ministry spokesman Bahram Ghasemi was quoted
by Iran's state news agency IRNA as saying. He was referring to
hardline Sunni Muslim groups and Saudi Arabia's official Wahhabi
school of Islam. Saudi Arabia denies backing terrorism and has
cracked down on jihadists at home, jailing thousands, stopping
hundreds from traveling to fight abroad and cutting militant
finances.
Iran's defense minister called on the U.S. Thursday to
leave the Persian Gulf, apparently in response torecent accusations
from a top U.S. military official that Iran's foreign policy had a
negative influence in the region. Iranian Defense Minister Brig. Gen.
Hossein Dehghan said Washington behaved like an "insane armed
robber" by establishing dozens of bases in the Gulf and
conducting military operations on foreign soil, Iran's Mehr News
Agency reported. A day earlier, U.S. Army Gen. Joseph Votel, head of the
U.S. Central Command, called Iran "the greatest long-term threat
to stability" in the Gulf. Dehghan questioned the U.S role in
the region and urged Washington to withdraw. "What are Americans
doing in the Persian Gulf? They had better get out of this region and
not cause nuisance for the regional countries," Dehghan said,
according to a press release published by Iran's Tasnim News Agency.
U.S.-IRAN RELATIONS
Iran's hard-liners are hoping they can benefit from the
rise of Donald Trump in upcoming elections, arguing that their own
country needs a tougher leader to stand up to an American president
whose administration has put the Islamic Republic "on notice."
They say it's time for a "revolutionary diplomacy" to
confront the U.S. after four years of a more conciliatory policy
under moderate incumbent President Hassan Rouhani. Hard-liners feel
energized by the Trump administration's repeated criticism of the
landmark 2015 nuclear deal. The agreement found little support among
the group, who feel Iran gave too much away in exchange for too
little in the way of sanctions relief. The U.S. president's tough
talk on Iran plays into hard-liners' hands too, reinforcing anti-American
sentiments they can use to rally their base.
Army General Joseph Votel, who heads the US Central
Command, on Wednesday called Iran "the greatest long-term threat
to stability" in the Middle East, saying the US should consider
using "military means" against the country. "You
should know that Iran is neither Iraq nor Afghanistan and any
adventurism will bring about regret for you," Mohsen Rezaei said
on Monday in remarks addressed at Votel. Rezaei commanded the
IRGC for less than two decades and is currently the secretary of
Iran's Expediency Council, which advises Leader of the Islamic
Revolution Ayatollah Seyyed Ali Khamenei. Votel, speaking before the
House Armed Services Committee in Washington, accused Iran of
"destabilizing" the region through "lethal aid facilitation,"
using "surrogate forces" and cyber operations.
The men who built the secret bomb factory had been
clever - suspiciously so, Bahraini investigators thought, for a gang
known mostly for lobbing molotov cocktails at police. The underground
complex had been hewed, foot by foot, beneath the floor of a suburban
villa, with no visible traces at street level and only a single
entrance, hidden behind a kitchen cabinet. But the real surprises lay
inside. In one room, police found $20,000 lathes and hydraulic
presses for making armor-piercing projectiles capable of slicing
through a tank. Another held box upon box of the military explosive
C-4, all of foreign origin, in quantities that could sink a
battleship. "Most of these items have never been seen in
Bahrain," the country's investigators said in a confidential technical
assessment provided to U.S. and European officials this past fall
that offered new detail on the arsenals seized in the villa and in
similar raids that have occurred sporadically over nearly three
years. In sheer firepower, the report said, the caches were both a
"game-changer" and - matched against lightly armed police -
"overkill."
"The US Army, Pentagon and CIA are sponsors of
terrorists in the region and are disturbing peace in the Middle East
on a large scale," Larijani said on Saturday. He added that
Iranian lawmakers would thoroughly study this issue and make
"important" decisions in this regard. Larijani's comments
come as some US representatives on Capitol Hill are reportedly
pushing legislation that would direct the State Department to
designate Iran's Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) as a
terrorist organization. This as a bipartisan group of US senators in
Congress also on March 23 introduced a bill that would apply
sanctions on the IRGC. Iran has vehemently dismissed allegations
against the forces.
Former New York City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani went to
Turkey to meet with the country's president and sought meetings with
U.S. government officials in an attempt to end U.S. prosecution of a
wealthy Turkish gold trader charged with conspiring to violate U.S.
sanctions on Iran, Manhattan federal prosecutors said. The moves were
disclosed in a letter on Friday to U.S. District Judge Richard
Berman, who is overseeing the case in which the trader, Reza Zarrab,
is accused of conspiring with others to conduct illegal transactions
through U.S. banks on behalf of Iran's government and other Iranian
entities. The new disclosures highlight the politically charged
nature of a case that expanded in scope earlier this week with the
arrest in New York of an executive at a Turkish state-owned bank
charged with conspiring with Zarrab to evade sanctions.
BUSINESS RISK
Indian state refiners will cut oil imports from Iran in
2017/18 by a fifth, as New Delhi takes a more assertive stance over
an impasse on a giant gas field that it wants awarded to an Indian
consortium, sources familiar with the matter said. India, Iran's
biggest oil buyer after China, was among a handful of countries that
continued to deal with the Persian Gulf nation despite Western
sanctions over Tehran's nuclear programme. However, previously close
ties have been strained since the lifting of some sanctions last year
as Iran adopts a bolder approach in trying to get the best deal for
its oil and gas. Unhappy with Tehran, India's oil ministry has asked
state refiners to cut imports of Iranian oil. "We are cutting
gradually, and we will cut more if there is no progress in the matter
of the award of Farzad B gas field to our company," one of the
Indian sources said.
SANCTIONS RELIEF
Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak has said that
there is already a "concrete agreement" between Russia and
Iran for purchase of 12 planes. Iran has shown interest in purchasing
100 Russia's medium-haul Sukhoi Superjet 100 (SSJ100) passenger
planes, but the agreement has only been reached regarding 12 aircraft
as of the moment, the Sputnik news agency quoted Novak as saying on
Saturday. "We are working out with our Iranian partners [on]
supply of our Sukhoi Superjet 100 aircraft. Our colleagues have
confirmed that there is a concrete agreement for 12 planes already.
In the short term, we are considering 30 aircraft. This is just the
beginning because overall, the Iranians are interested in purchasing
100 Sukhoi Superjet aircraft," Novak said. He further said that
Russian President Vladimir Putin's visit to Iran in November 2015
made key developments in relations between the two states.
FOREIGN AFFAIRS
Beji Caid Essebsi made the remarks in a meeting with
visiting Iranian Minister of Culture and Islamic Guidance Reza Salehi
Amiri at the presidential Carthage Palace in Tunis, IRNA news agency
reported. "The Zionist regime [of Israel] is the Islamic Republic's
only enemy in the region. Therefore, we hope that all Muslim and Arab
countries would stand by Iran," Essebi said, according to IRNA.
Essebi called Iran a great country with a rich cultural heritage,
saying it has a role to play in the Middle East despite efforts by
certain sides to push the Islamic Republic into a Shia-Sunni strife.
"Unfortunately, the Zionist regime and its sponsors were trying
to isolate Iran, but, by God's grace, the Islamic Republic succeeded
to return to the political scene of the region," he added.
PROXY WARS
Houthi militia captured and arrested by Yemeni forces on
Sunday have confessed they received training from Iranian and
Lebanese experts. Mohammed Sharad, one of the captured militants,
made the confession and said he was treated well by Yemeni legitimate
forces Yemen's national army recaptured more posts in Midi city
following fierce clashes with the Houthi militia near the suburbs of
the besieged district Scores of Houthis militia and guards of the
ousted former president Ali Abdullah Saleh were killed and injured on
Sunday. Two were captured - one of them a sniper - both later
confessed to receiving training from Iranian and Lebanese experts.
Militia have been pushed out of al-Hawd, Tabat al-Khanadik and Tabat
al Haroura areas of the district so far. Earlier, military sources
referred to coalition air strikes targeting the supply routes of the
militias in the district.
The absence of U.S. military assistance to the Sunni
Arab coalition fighting the Iranian-backed Houthi militants in Yemen
has emboldened the insurgent Houthis over the past two years,
according to policy experts. The Defense Department recently
recommended that President Donald Trump commit resources to help
forces from Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates counter Iranian
influence in Yemen. The Trump administration has begun weighing
greater involvement in Yemen that would include a broader strategy to
counter Iran and defeat regional branches of terrorist groups like
the Islamic State and al Qaeda, according to several reports. A
policy proposal is expected next month. Sen. Bob Corker (R., Tenn.),
who chairs the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, introduced legislation
last month that would require the administration to submit to
Congress a regional strategy to counter the threat from Iran,
including the Islamic Republic's support of Houthi rebels in Yemen.
SYRIA CONFLICT
Mustafa Zahrani, head of strategic affairs at the
Institute for Political and International Studies of the Iranian
Ministry of Foreign Affairs, revealed that his country does not have
a strategy to get out of the war in Syria. He added that Syrian
President Bashar al-Assad will turn his back on Iran and ally with
Russia because Moscow can challenge and stand up to the United
States. In an article published by the "Iranian diplomat"
website of Sadegh Kharrazi, Iran's former ambassador to the UN,
Zahrani disclosed that "Syria will side with whoever can keep
Bashar al-Assad in power, and in this equation, the Russians were
more supportive. Although Iran has played a great role in the field,
in terms of air cover and international privileges, Russia has the
upper hand. Assad will turn his back on Iran and shake hands with
Russia. " "We were optimistic that the war in Syria would
be short and that the enemy was weak and we could end the battle
quickly. The majority of the countries that intervened in Syria were
optimistic too and did not plan for an exit strategy, including Iran
and Turkey," said the head of strategic affairs at the Institute
for Political and International Studies of the Iranian Foreign
Ministry. Russia, on the other hand, has an exit strategy, because
its role was limited to air cover unlike us."
A new wave of violence seems to be shaking the fragile
truce in Syria. On March 19, opposition groups launched a surprise
attack on Damascus in apparent coordination with a separate offensive
in the countryside of Hama province. The escalation was not solely
aimed at the Syrian regime, but also at the two international de
facto "caretakers" of the Syrian crisis, Russia and Turkey.
According to an Arab diplomatic source in Beirut who spoke to
Al-Monitor on condition of anonymity, the aim of the opposition
attacks has been to remind all the parties involved in the Syrian war
that no one is totally in control. In this regard, the source said,
"The US and the GCC [Gulf Cooperation Council] states were
completely absent for the past 6 months, from the US [presidential]
election until the Saudi deputy [crown prince and apparent] heir,
Mohammad bin Salman, visited Washington. The visit was probably the
turning point."
HUMAN RIGHTS
The family of a British-Iranian woman
detained in Iran marked the first anniversary of her detention by
tying yellow ribbons on the branches of trees at a park near her
home. Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe has been held in Iran for one year on
allegations she conspired to overthrow the country's cleric-run
government. Zaghari-Ratcliffe, who has dual British-Iranian
citizenship, was returning home to Britain after visiting her family
in Tehran with her toddler daughter Ahead of the anniversary event in
northwest London on Sunday, she described her wish to see her husband
and child dancing to Michael Jackson in "the middle of our
sitting room." Supporters also affixed to the trees quotes from
Zaghari-Ratcliffe's fellow inmates at Evin prison in Iran describing
what they would do with one day of freedom.
An Iranian-American detained in Iran
since last summer has been released on bail of approximately $60,000,
the Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA) reported Sunday. Robin
Reza Shahini was arrested by the Revolutionary Guards while visiting
family in the northeastern city of Gorgan last July and subsequently
sentenced to 18 years imprisonment on charges of threatening national
security, according to HRANA. Shahini went on a hunger strike for a
month recently and his health situation had been deteriorating, the
HRANA report said. Two other Iranian-Americans are still being held
in the Islamic Republic. Iran's Revolutionary Guards detained Siamak
Namazi, a businessman in his mid-40s with dual U.S.-Iranian
citizenship, in October 2015 while he was visiting family in Tehran.
OPINION & ANALYSIS
The way forward for the Iran nuclear deal under
President Trump is to tighten enforcement of the Joint Comprehensive
Plan of Action (JCPOA, aka, the nuclear deal) and impose sanctions on
Iran's ballistic missile program rather than dismantle the JCPOA.
There are several topics the Trump administration confronts regarding
the JCPOA: heavy water, inspections, compliance, and nuclear sanctions.
Heavy water reactors permit use of natural uranium as fuel, while
light water reactors require enriched uranium, which is much more
difficult to produce. As a member of Congress, President Trump's
Director of Central Intelligence Agency, then-Rep. Mike Pompeo
cosponsored a bill passed by the House on July 13, 2016, that
prevents Iran from purchasing heavy water from the United States.
Inspections of Iran's nuclear facilities are necessary to ensure
compliance, so Iran is unable to "breakout," "sneakout,"
or "creepout." The last one concerns both open and covert,
legal and illicit activities designed to negate JCPOA restrictions
prior to the agreed-upon time in which Tehran would be able to do so.
It appears the recent Arab League Summit in Jordan
should be considered an important development in the path of further
isolating Iran in the Middle East. At a first glance, this was a
conference in which the highest number of state leaders participated
in comparison to previous such gatherings. A more in-depth
perspective places us before this important conclusion that most
speakers strongly criticized Iran's meddling and highlighted the
necessity of solidarity and alliance amongst Arab states to confront
this phenomenon. Leaders of Saudi Arabia and Jordan specifically
expressed their grave concerns over Iran's interference across the
region, especially Syria, sectarian warmongering and Tehran's state
sponsorship of terrorism. "Tehran provokes sectarianism and
hinders efforts to resolve regional crises," said Arab League
Secretary General Ahmed Aboul Gheit.
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