|
TOP STORIES
The announcement that a prominent conservative cleric
will run for Iran's presidency next month has transformed the race,
potentially unifying opponents to President Hassan Rouhani in a
strong challenge to his re-election. Ebrahim Raisi declared his
candidacy on Thursday, according to Tasnim news agency, a day after
two other conservatives, former president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and
Tehran Mayor Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, bowed out. The emergence of a
single strong opponent could not only narrow Rouhani's chance of
winning on May 19, but also position Raisi as the front-runner to
succeed 77-year-old Ali Khamenei as Supreme Leader, when he dies.
"This is going to be a very serious race with huge consequences
for the Iranian electorate," Sanam Vakil, an associate fellow at
Chatham House, said by phone. "The stakes are very high."
Former hardline Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad
said Wednesday he would support a long-time ally in May's
presidential election. In his first press conference for four years,
Ahmadinejad said he will back Hamid Baghaie, his former vice
president who headed the tourism board. "I have no plans to
present myself. I support Mr Baghaie as the best candidate,"
said Ahmadinejad. Baghaie was imprisoned for seven months in 2015 for
reasons that were never made public. Ahmadinejad last year ruled out
a comeback of his own after supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei
indicated it could have a polarising effect on the nation. Meanwhile,
Tehran mayor Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said Wednesday he would not
stand for the presidency. He had been considered one of the leading
options for mainstream conservatives, and had run twice before.
"I think all those who want to save this country from the economic
and social crises must unite," said Ghalibaf.
Iran has sold all the oil it had stored for years at sea
and Tehran is now struggling to keep exports growing as it grapples
with production constraints, shipping and oil sources say. Since the
easing of international sanctions in January 2016, Iran tried to make
up for lost sales by releasing millions of barrels parked on tankers
offshore. Tanker tracking and oil sources said Iran had sold its last
stocks from the floating storage in the past two weeks. Much of the
oil stored was condensate, a very light grade of crude. With no more
stocks at sea, Iran has lost a vital resource that had propped up
exports."We do think that (floating storage) has been the
primary cause of the boost in exports," Energy Aspects analyst
Richard Mallinson said, adding that now floating storage had ended
total exports of crude and condensate were likely to slip. "We
see a very difficult path for Iran to raise crude output until it can
get the Western expertise and investment back into the upstream,
which has been notably slow to materialize," he added.
NUCLEAR & BALLISTIC MISSILE
PROGRAM
The agreement will be inked during a meeting between
AEOI chief Ali Akbar Salehi and Hungarian Deputy Prime Minister Zsolt
Semjen. Iranian and Hungarian authorities have made several reciprocal
visits, including Salehi's visit to Budapest in 2016. Back in
February 2016, Salehi said Iran has proposed a project with Hungary
to design and develop a small nuclear reactor that could be sold
across Asia and Africa and also built in the Islamic republic.
"One particular project that I suggested was to see if we can...
together design a small reactor of 25 megawatts," Salehi said.
"It was received well and we hope that we can start this
project, just on paper." The project "requires a lot of
scientific work to come up with such a design, certainly a number of
years of hard work. We want to see if we can do this," he
further said. Following the lifting of international sanctions on
Iran, Tehran has strived to fully utilize economic and scientific opportunities,
including the pursuit of peaceful nuclear activities.
U.S.-IRAN RELATIONS
The role of the Iranian lobby in the US during the
presidency of Barack Obama grew unprecedently. In the past, Obama has
become a public intermediary between Tehran and Washington. He played
a prominent role in the signing of the nuclear agreement between
Tehran and the six largest countries until President Donald Trump's
arrival in Washington "when things went back to the starting
point," as proclaimed by Hooshang Amirahmadi, founder of the
Iranian-American National Council of the pro-Tehran lobby in
Washington. Amirahmadi, one of the most prominent figures in the
Tehran lobby, said that Iran's relations with the US had returned to
zero after the arrival of Trump. In response to a question on the
"Election" website about the future of relationships
between Washington and Tehran, Ahmadi who is currently visiting Iran,
said "after the arrival of Trump in the White House, the
honeymoon period of Iran and the US ended. All of those who sought to
establish relations between the two countries left."
SANCTIONS ENFORCEMENT
A U.S. judge on Wednesday ordered that he be given more
detail about former New York City mayor Rudolph Giuliani and another
lawyer's representation of a Turkish gold trader charged with
conspiring to violate U.S. sanctions against Iran. U.S. District
Judge Richard Berman in Manhattan said he needed extra information to
ensure that conflicts of interest did not prevent Giuliani and former
U.S. Attorney General Michael Mukasey from effectively representing
Reza Zarrab, who is in US. custody. Zarrab is accused of conspiring
to conduct illegal transactions through U.S. banks on behalf of
Iran's government. Prosecutors said in a court filing last week that
eight of the U.S. banks involved in the case were clients of Giuliani
or Mukasey's law firms, and Giuliani's firm was a registered agent of
Turkey, posing potential conflicts. Benjamin Brafman, an attorney for
Zarrab, said at a court hearing on Tuesday that Giuliani and Mukasey
were working on a "diplomatic solution" to the case and
would not represent Zarrab in court.
SANCTIONS RELIEF
After the implementation of Iran's nuclear accord with
world powers, the country has negotiated its way to attract $50
billion worth of foreign finance expected to flow into the country
soon, a report by Economy Ministry's Organization for Investment,
Economic and Technical Assistance of Iran has revealed. According to
the report, countries that have shown interest in Iran's investment
potentials include South Korea, China, Japan, Denmark, Germany,
Austria, Italy, Norway, Russia and Brazil. "To foster foreign
investment and develop ties with international banks and export credit
agencies, the Ministry of Economic Affairs and Finance has put
security of investment and stability in economic, political and legal
affairs on top of its agenda," the report published by the
official news service Shada reads. In line with this, the Economy Ministry
"entered into negotiations with more than 15 ECAs and banks, and
as of March 2, negotiations have been held with various countries for
approximately $50 billion of foreign investment in the form of
finance".
TERRORISM
An Iranian-supported militia, Al-Nujaba, says that it
has formed the "Golan Liberation Army" to fight Israel, the
Middle East Media Research Institute (MEMRI) reports. "This army
has been trained and has detailed plans. If the Syria regime asks us
to, we are ready to act to liberate the Golan [from Israel] along
with our allies," Al-Nujaba spokesman Hashem Al-Mousawi said in
a March 8 interview with Iran's Tasnim news agency.
Al-Mousawi also admitted that the new militant group is "part of
the PMU [Popular Mobilization Units]," an Iraqi-backed umbrella
organization comprised of numerous Shia militias, including some with
close ties to Iran. The Golan Liberation Army emerged from the
Iranian led "resistance" axis and consists of "special
forces who have received training and equipment," he said.
"Iran is the only country that has helped us," Al-Mousawi
said, "and sent us its military advisers, led by Qassem
Soleimani."
HUMAN RIGHTS
Separate but not equal isn't the
tagline of this weekend's upcoming marathon in Tehran, but it could
be. On Wednesday, race organizers confirmed to the Associated Press
that while the men get to enjoy an outdoor course Friday, the
country's strict laws are forcing female participants to run the
roughly 26-mile race on an indoor track."Personally I do not
agree with that," Dutchman Sebastiaan Straten, who is helping to
organize what's being billed as Iran's first international marathon,
told the AP. "We are trying to find other ways to make step[s]
[forward] for female running in Iran." The laws which require
men and women to compete apart from each other stem from the country's
1979 revolution that goes so far as to even ban women from watching
men's sporting events in person and vice versa. Iran also requires
women to wear Islamic headscarves and be covered save for their face,
hands and feet. Women, despite competing separately from men, will
still be required to uphold those strict wardrobe rules during the
run, the marathon's website states. Men, meanwhile, can wear standard
running gear, including shorts that go well above the knee and tank
tops.
DOMESTIC POLITICS
Hojatoleslam Seyed Ebrahim Raeesi, the chief custodian
and trustee of the Astan Quds Razavi, a charitable organization
holding trusteeship of the eighth Shiite Imam's shrine, would seek
the presidency in Iran's upcoming election. Addressing a political gathering
in Tehran on Thursday, Mayor of Mashhad Sowlat Mortazavi, who
attended the event on behalf of Hojatoleslam Raeesi, said the senior
cleric has officially announced his candidacy for president. Known as
a leading figure of the "principalist" political faction,
Mr. Raeesi is believed to become a serious rival for President Hassan
Rouhani, who will be seeking a second term The 12th presidential
election in Iran will be held on May 19.
Mayor and two-time presidential candidate Mohammad
Bagher Ghalibaf has announced that he does not intend to run in the
presidential elections May 19. The move came amid widespread
speculation that Ghalibaf would take a third shot at the presidency,
having been the runner-up to Hassan Rouhani in the 2013 elections.
Following his statement, there were reports in Iranian media
indicating that Ghalibaf is upset with the conservative coalition's
decision to not back him as its consensus candidate. Some reports claim
that Ghalibaf has reached an agreement with conservative cleric
Ebrahim Raisi, the custodian of the holy shrine of Shiite Imam Reza
in the city of Mashhad, to serve as his vice president if the latter
runs and is ultimately elected. According to the moderate Entekhab
news site and the conservative Tasnim news agency, Raisi's candidacy
is certain, as he has reportedly resigned from the election
monitoring committee, as required by law. However, Entekhab is
quoting sources claiming that Raisi has not agreed to the
conservative coalition's demand that all conservative candidates
"withdraw at the last minute in favor of the sole conservative
candidate who has the greatest chance [of winning the vote]."
OPINION & ANALYSIS
It is now an established tradition that Iran's supreme
leader travels to Mashhad on the first day of the Iranian New Year,
which fell on March 21 this year, to deliver his most important
annual policy speech. This year's speech was significant as it almost
entirely dealt with economic conditions, an indication that the
economy, especially unemployment, is a key concern of Iran's top
leadership. To realize Iran's economic potential, the supreme leader
and the government need to take steps to allow genuine private sector
expansion. When referring to the "enemy's" desire to
depict economic shortcomings as proof that the Islamic Republic is
incapable of managing the country, the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali
Khamenei, acknowledged some internal deficiencies. He admitted,
"Of course, there are some weaknesses, but these weaknesses are
related to our management."
The Russian media portrayed the visit by Iranian
President Hassan Rouhani to Moscow March 27-28 as a big deal Russian
President Vladimir Putin and his Iranian counterpart discussed
numerous issues, ranging from international conflicts to culture,
signed 16 cooperation agreements and declared an unprecedented
increase in bilateral trade as the pivotal indicator of their
successful relations. Analysts were largely optimistic about the
meeting, forecasting a bright future for the Moscow-Tehran alliance,
or at least a credible effort. The real reasons for the meeting
between the two leaders, who could have settled issues without a
high-ranking official display, lies offstage. One reason was
Rouhani's desire to make his last official trip before presidential
elections a memorable and high-profile visit.
Iran's presidential elections are fast approaching, and,
as always, all the political groups, from the reactionary
fundamentalists to the traditional conservatives, moderates and
reformists, have been trying for months to position themselves for a
strong run in May. But what is different this time around is the
influence of the "deep state" the secret and semi-secret
networks of military, security and intelligence forces that allegedly
profess support for Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei
which is setting itself up to decide the future president of Iran.
The next few weeks are crucial. Currently, a coalition of reformists
and moderate conservatives is in favor of extending Iranian President
Hassan Rouhani for a second term. The traditional conservatives, who
refer to themselves as the osoolgaraayaan, or the principlists, have
been trying to agree on a single candidate to oppose Rouhani, but
there are deep fissures in their ranks that may prevent them from
unifying behind a single candidate.
The Houthis and former president Ali Abdullah Saleh's
takeover of the Yemeni capital Sanaa through the power of arms marked
the end of the Yemenis' peaceful uprising and the beginning of the
war. I was certain that the war be will long and tough for several
reasons. For instance, former president, Saleh, was still in control
of the armed forces and the Houthi movement is a group that takes
orders from Iran This is in addition to the lack of a central
authority in Yemen and the country's rough terrains. The Iranian
links to the war could be traced since the beginning and Iran did not
hide them because it viewed the war as regional. Iran believes that
opening a front against Saudi Arabia in Yemen is part of the
geopolitical balance in Syria and Bahrain's conflicts. Although many
observers have denied this possibility since the beginning and mocked
it, they later admitted Iran's involvement. What's interesting is
that Tehran had not even bothered to hide it.
|
Posts
No comments:
Post a Comment