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TOP STORIES
Iran's
hardliners are committed to the nuclear deal with world powers even as
they use the accord to attack President Hassan Rouhani ahead of elections
this month, a senior hardline politician said. The agreement was a
"done deal" and there would be no attempts to sabotage it, said
Alireza Zakani, a senior figure in the hardliners' camp and a former MP.
"We consider the nuclear accord a done deal and will remain
committed to it unless the US officially withdraws from it," Mr
Zakani, who led opposition to the nuclear deal in parliament, told the
Financial Times. The accord, which US President Donald Trump has
repeatedly threatened to unravel, has become a critical battleground
between hardliners and reformists ahead of the May 19 presidential vote.
The leaders of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee have
reached a decision that's sure to disappoint Russia hawks: They're not
taking up a Russia sanctions bill anytime soon. Instead, Committee
Chairman Bob Corker of Tennessee and ranking Democrat Ben Cardin of
Maryland have agreed to move forward on a measure to counter Russian
influence in Eastern Europe without using sanctions as well as an Iran
sanctions bill..."We're not going to do a Russia sanctions bill,"
Corker told POLITICO on Monday. "The ranking member and I are in
strong agreement on a pathway forward and that's what we're going to do.
We're going to do an Iran sanctions bill. It'll be done toward the end of
this work period...The deal between Corker and Cardin resolves a point of
contention between Corker and some Democrats on the Foreign Relations
panel, who wanted to move Iran and Russia sanctions together, according
to multiple Democratic Senate aides
Boeing Co. is making "steady progress" to complete
the terms of an 80-jetliner sale to Iran Air and expects to deliver the
initial planes next year, the first U.S. aircraft exports to Iran since
the country's revolution in 1979. "That remains on
track," Chief Executive Officer Dennis Muilenburg told reporters
Monday following the planemaker's annual general meeting in Chicago.
"It's really important that at every step of the process, we're
working on this hand-in-hand with the U.S. government." The $16.6
billion deal with Iran Air and a separate $3 billion agreement with Iran
Aseman Airlines bring two of President Donald Trump's initiatives into
conflict: his campaign vows to "get tough" on Iran and his
promise to bolster U.S. exports supporting thousands of manufacturing
jobs.
U.S.-IRAN RELATIONS
Iran said Monday that it had discussed the issue of
Americans with dual citizenship held in Iranian prisons during a meeting
last week with the United States. The discussion, during a meeting in
Vienna on compliance with the 2015 Iranian nuclear accord, was the first
face-to-face exchange between emissaries from Iran and the United States
since President Trump took office. A State Department spokesman, Mark C.
Toner, had suggested on April 25 that the imprisonments would be raised
at the meeting, which was held while both sides were attending a session
of the International Atomic Energy Agency, the United Nations
nonproliferation monitor.
Foreign Ministry Spokesman Bahram Qasemi said direct talks
between Iran and the US are limited to the nuclear deal, describing as
inaccurate media reports that the two governments have discussed the
state of two Iranian-American prisoners held in Iran on the sidelines of
recent nuclear talks. Qasemi made the statement in a regular press
briefing on Monday, IRNA reported. Iran and P5+1 (the US, Britain,
France, Russia and China, plus Germany) concluded the nuclear deal in
July 2015, which is formally known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of
Action.The seventh meeting of the Joint Commission, which monitors the
implementation of JCPOA, was held in the Austrian capital Vienna last
Tuesday.
BUSINESS RISK
India plans to order about a quarter less Iranian crude oil
than it bought last year, people familiar with the matter said, as state
refiners cut term purchase deals over a row between New Delhi and Tehran on
development of a natural gas field. The drop in volumes follows India's
threat to order state refiners - Hindustan Petroleum, Bharat Petroleum,
Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Ltd, and Indian Oil Corp - to
reduce purchases from Iran if an Indian consortium is not awarded the
rights to develop Iran's huge Farzad B natural gas field. The volume cuts
would put India's imports of Iranian crude for this fiscal year at
370,000 barrels per day (bpd), according to the sources with knowledge of
the planned deals. India is Iran's top oil client after China, and last
year imported about 510,000 bpd of crude from the country, according to
shipping data in Thomson Reuters Eikon.
Leaders from Boeing reportedly traveled to Tehran recently
to meet and sign a deal with a top former Iranian Revolutionary Guards
Corps (IRGC) member who threatened to blow up U.S. forces in the Persian
Gulf region, raising new questions about the U.S. aerospace company's
continued efforts to ink multi-billion dollar deals with the Iranian
regime. Representatives from Boeing traveled to Iran last month to meet
with Hossein Alaei, CEO of Aseman Airlines, which is owned and controlled
by the state. Boeing is moving forward with a $3 billion dollar deal to
sell new planes to Aseman despite fierce opposition on Capitol Hill and
direct evidence Iran has used commercial aircraft to ferry weapons and
fighters across the region.
A U.S. judge on Monday said he wanted to know whether Iran
employs any lawyers for a wealthy Turkish gold trader accused of helping
that country evade U.S. sanctions, a team that includes former New York
City Mayor Rudolph Giuliani. In a brief order, U.S. District Judge
Richard Berman in Manhattan said he planned to ask at a hearing on
Tuesday whether Giuliani or any other lawyer for trader Reza Zarrab had
been hired by Iran, the United States or Turkey. Tuesday's hearing will
focus on whether conflicts of interest bar Giuliani and former U.S.
Attorney General Michael Mukasey from representing Zarrab. The trader has
pleaded not guilty to U.S. charges that he conspired to conduct illegal
transactions through U.S. banks on behalf of Iran's government, violating
U.S. sanctions
SANCTIONS RELIEF
SMS will be exhibiting along with the Alderley Group at the
22nd Iran International Oil, Gas, Refining and Petrochemical Exhibition
from the 6th - 9th May 2017. SMS will be promoting its range of
Hydraulic, Pneumatic and Electrical Control Systems along with their
offshore and onshore services. The business will also demonstrate
its full project and multi-disciplined engineering capabilities. Gary
Morrow, Business Development Director, comments, "We are looking
forward to attending the Iran Oil and Gas show so that we can highlight
SMS's expertise in delivering quality solutions and services. We
pride ourselves on meeting the specific requirements of our clients and
the exhibition will allow us to discuss with our customers how we can
support them locally now and in the future."
SYRIA CONFLICT
Iran will maintain its support for the Syrian government
despite the deaths of hundreds of its advisers and volunteers in the
six-year civil war, a commander said in comments published Tuesday.
Shiite Iran and its Lebanese ally Hezbollah are the Syrian regime's most
important military supporters after Russia in its battle against mainly
Sunni rebels. "We will send advisers in all fields and offer all
help at our disposal so the resistance front doesn't break," the
ground forces commander of the elite Revolutionary Guards, General
Mohammad Pakpour, told the Fars news agency. "They are present there
now and we will deploy more as long as there is a need for advisory
support."
FOREIGN AFFAIRS
Britain can no longer rely on U.S. leadership on Middle East
policy and must work more closely with Europe to ensure the Iran nuclear
deal stays in place, among other policies, a committee of lawmakers said
in a report Tuesday. The deal between Iran and six major powers restricts
Tehran's nuclear program in exchange for the lifting of international oil
and financial sanctions. During his U.S. presidential campaign, Donald
Trump called the agreement "the worst deal ever negotiated" and
his administration has launched a review of whether lifting sanctions is
in the United States' national security interests.
Arab League chief Ahmed Abul Gheit warned Monday that Iran
and Israel were the main beneficiaries of turmoil across the Arab world,
which he described as the worst he has ever seen. "I have never seen
anything worse than what we are now seeing," Abul Gheit said at the
Arab Media Forum in Dubai. "Iran is enjoying what the Arab world is
going through. There are those in Iran who are watching and waiting for
us to destroy ourselves." Ties between Iran and Arab states have
grown increasingly tense in recent years, with Tehran backing Syrian
President Bashar al-Assad, Yemen's Shiite Huthi rebels and armed Shiite
groups in Iraq. Arab governments largely back Syrian opposition groups.
Experts from Russia, Iran and Turkey acting as the
guarantors of the Syrian ceasefire, will hold a meeting in Astana on
Tuesday. Similar consultations were last held in Tehran on April 18-19.
Tuesday's consultations precede international negotiations on the
situation in that country that will begin on May 3. Astana is hosting
this forum for the fourth time. Russia's delegation led by Presidential
Envoy for the Syrian Settlement Alexander Lavrentiev , the Iranian,
Turkish, possibly, the US (at the ambassadorial level) and the Jordanian
delegations will be working in Kazakhstan's capital on May 3. UN
Secretary-General's Special Envoy for Syria Staffan de Mistura will
arrive in Astana in the evening on May 2. Representatives of Damascus led
by Syria's Permanent Representative to the UN, Bashar Jaafari, have
already arrived in Astana, while the participation of the armed
opposition has not been confirmed yet.
SAUDI-IRAN TENSIONS
Saudi Arabia's Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman
accused Iran of seeking to control the Muslim world, in remarks that
appear to rule out any rapprochement with the Islamic Republic. "How
can I converse with" Iran, Prince Mohammed, 31, said in an interview
with Saudi-owned MBC television, which will be aired in full on Tuesday
night. He said Iran is preparing the ground for the arrival of the Mahdi,
a prophesied Shiite savior, and wants to "control the Muslim
world." The world's biggest oil exporter and Iran are on the
opposing sides of major Middle East crises, including the conflicts in
Syria and Iraq. The kingdom is bogged down in a two-year war in Yemen,
where it's been trying to restore the rule of an
internationally-recognized government against Shiite rebels aligned with
Iran.
HUMAN RIGHTS
Atena Daemi, a human rights activist
serving a seven-year prison sentence for her peaceful activism, is in
"critical" condition on the fourth week of her hunger strike
She has also been denied proper medical care in Evin Prison in Tehran,
her mother, Masoumeh Nemati, told the Center for Human Rights in Iran
(CHRI). "Since last week (Daemi) has been experiencing severe blood
pressure fluctuations, nausea, vomiting and stomach pains, but her
frequent visits to the prison clinic have not made her any better," Nemati
told CHRI on April 30, 2017. "One day Atena went to the prison
clinic and there was only a male nurse there," she said. "The
nurse called the doctor on the phone and explained Atena's problem. The
doctor ordered an electrocardiogram (ECG), but the nurse refused because
he said it was (religiously) forbidden to touch a woman."
DOMESTIC POLITICS
President Hassan Rouhani, a contender in the forthcoming
presidential election, has filed a complaint with Iran's Election
Campaign Monitoring Committee about allegations leveled by another
candidate against him during a live TV debate. Hesameddin Ashena, the
cultural advisor to the president, told ISNA on Sunday the complaint was
lodged after presidential candidate, Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, leveled
three accusations against Rouhani, Press TV reported. He noted that
Rouhani complained to the committee that he was not given enough time to
respond to Qalibaf's accusations. Ashena hoped that the committee would
process the complaint. During the first live debate among the six
presidential candidates on Friday, Qalibaf claimed that Rouhani had
failed to fulfill his promises to solve the country's economic problems
during his first 100 days in office and create four million jobs.
Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on Tuesday
slammed election slogans of outgoing President Hassan Rouhani on the
removal of the "shadow of war" from Iran by signing the nuclear
deal. Iranians should not thank Hassan Rouhani's policy of detente with
the West for any reduction in the threat of war, Khamenei said on Sunday,
stepping up his criticisms of the president as elections approach. Hours
later, Rouhani renewed his position, but softened his tone. At the same
time, Iran's Election Commission announced that it received complaints
from four candidates in the presidential elections because of the issues
witnessed in the first debate.
Iran's most famous hard-liner, former President Mahmoud
Ahmadinejad, is off the ballot - blocked by the ayatollahs who vet the
Islamic republic's acceptable candidates, but the country's spirited
presidential race is still shaping up to be a fierce battle over the
nuclear deal with the Obama administration and its allies. President
Hassan Rouhani, a Shiite cleric considered a relative moderate on the
Iranian political spectrum, is facing increasing pressure from
hard-liners to show the payoff from the agreement struck with the U.S.
and five global powers in 2015 to curb its nuclear programs in exchange
for the lifting of harsh economic sanctions. Mr. Raisi is a close ally of
Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who is said to be
dissatisfied with Mr. Rouhani's handling of relations with the West and
is eager to for him to be replaced by a more confrontational character
capable of responding to the more assertive approach from Washington
under President Trump.
OPINION & ANALYSIS
In the words of U.S. Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, the
administration of President Donald Trump is currently "reviewing
ways to confront challenges posed by Iran." This most likely means
looking for ways in which to curb Iran's expansionism in the Middle East.
But for any containment plan to be effective, Washington must examine
Iran's newly emerging strategy in the Levant and must understand that
although Tehran still hopes to achieve regional hegemony in the long
term, its current plan is to focus on obtaining and maintaining a
predominant position in Iraq, Lebanon, and Syria. The bloody quagmire
involving those three countries offers more opportunities to consolidate
power than what would surely be a riskier confrontation in the Gulf,
where Iran would have to contend with the United States and its allies.
Success in the narrower approach, moreover, could ultimately strengthen
Tehran's hand against Saudi Arabia and those in the Sunni bloc.
When the Obama administration managed to avoid a
congressional vote on its nuclear deal with Iran in 2015 courtesy of a
Democratic Senate filibuster, the argument surrounding the controversial
agreement seemed to be over. That's why Democrats are reacting with
impatience and skepticism about statements from the Trump administration
about re-evaluating the deal. Yet rather than an impotent gesture
designed to distract us from a decision not to tear up the accord that
President Donald Trump blasted throughout the 2016 election campaign, the
administration's talk of reopening the issue should be taken seriously.
Trump's foreign policy team is coming to grips with the fact that
everything it hopes to accomplish in the Middle East as well as threats
to US security are connected to an Iranian regime immeasurably
strengthened - both politically and economically - by Obama's misguided
effort to create detente with Tehran.
Last month, I wrote about the tendency for Western
officials, journalists, and even analysts to lose sight of the forest for
the trees when it comes to coverage of Iran's presidential elections.
Simply put, the power does not lay with the presidency but with the
supreme leader and unelected military and security apparatus. To suggest
that Iranian elections are free and fair or, as former President Obama
and Secretary of State John Kerry seemed to imply, represented the will
of the Iranian people is naïve. After all, if the election of Iranian
moderates reflects the desire for accommodation on the part of the
broader public, then what should the broader world conclude when Iranians
elect presidents like Ali Khamenei (r. 1981-1989) or Mahmoud Ahmadinejad
(r. 2005-2013)?
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