TOP STORIES
It may be a busy election cycle in Europe, with
attention focused on upcoming parliamentary votes in France, Britain
and Germany. But don't forget about Iran. On May 19, Iranians will go
to the polls to elect their next president. Current President Hassan Rouhani
is the front-runner, but his victory is far from guaranteed. Of
course, there is a justified tendency to view any election in Iran
with skepticism. In the Islamic republic's theocratic system, the
presidency is just one pillar of executive power. The six
presidential candidates were allowed on the ballot only after being
vetted by the country's Guardian Council, a body of 12 powerful
theologians and jurists. And it is Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah
Ali Khamenei, who ultimately calls the shots. Nevertheless, the
election campaign in Iran is exposing curious divisions. In televised
debates, Rouhani has sparred with his more hard-line rivals, deeming
them "extremists."
As supporters of Iran's president awaited his arrival to
fire them up for his May 19 re-election bid, the thoughts of many
were with two other men under house arrest for years. "Moussavi,
Karroubi must be released!" the crowd of thousands thundered
over and over, a reference to the country's most prominent opposition
leaders. Hands raised, they drowned out a warm-up speaker at the
campaign event for the president, Hassan Rouhani. Many wore green
wristbands, a political symbol that, not too long ago, could get
someone arrested in Iran. Not these days - a concession in the
modestly widened latitude permitted for political discourse when Iran
gears up for elections. During the campaign, which lasts only a few
weeks, politics are not only freer, but edgier.
The Iranian president, Hassan Rouhani, has taken a
combative tone in campaigning as conservative rivals pull out all the
stops to prevent him from being re-elected. The favourite among
reformists of the six candidates running for president on 19 May,
Rouhani has crossed red lines in Iranian politics with attacks on the
elite Revolutionary Guards and the characterisation of one of his
main challengers as someone whose only talent was execution and
imprisonment. The president had been put on the defensive during two
televised debates in which conservative rivals Mohammad Bagher
Ghalibaf, the Tehran mayor, and hardliner Ebrahim Raisi attacked the
country's economic performance since he made the 2015 nuclear deal
with the west, which lifted some sanctions. But Rouhani, a moderate,
hit back with attacks on the hardliners as he sought to reach the
estimated 40% of the 55 million Iranians who do not usually vote.
UANI IN THE NEWS
Bagher Namazi, an ailing 81-year old dual
Iranian-American citizen, is languishing in one of Tehran's most
notorious prisons on bogus espionage charges. He's already undergone
triple-bypass heart surgery and shed 25 pounds during his year behind
bars, according to his son, and his health is quickly deteriorating.
In October, he received grim news: he faces ten years in prison,
which amounts to a death sentence. His family is now pleading with
the Trump administration to intervene The injustice extends beyond
Bagher: Along with his son, Siamak, who's been held in isolation and
also sentenced to a decade in prison, there are at least four U.S.
citizens with dual nationality and two green card holders who are
also being held as prisoners in Iran, as well as a former FBI agent,
Robert Levinson, who disappeared there a decade ago.
U.S.-IRAN RELATIONS
The Trump administration's national intelligence
director says the U.S. sees Iran working to maintain last year's
nuclear agreement. Tehran's rationale is that by sticking to the
deal, it gets relief from U.S. sanctions and preserves some nuclear
capabilities Dan Coats tells the Senate intelligence committee that
the deal extended the amount of time Iran would need to produce
enough material for a nuclear weapon. He cites the Obama
administration's estimates that the timeline has been delayed from a
few months to about a year. Coats also says the deal has enhanced
transparency of Iran's nuclear activities. But, he says, the US.
doesn't know if Iran will eventually decide to try to build nuclear
weapons.
BUSINESS RISK
Desperate to show off the rewards of his landmark deal
to get sanctions lifted from Iran, President Hassan Rouhani has
rolled out the red carpet for global investors before he faces the
voters in an election next week. But so far the executives jetting
into town have made more speeches than deals. "If at the end of
the day, it is only words and no facts, there's a problem,"
Stephane Michel, French oil major Total's president for exploration
and production in North Africa and the Middle East said at an EU-Iran
oil and gas forum last month. "We are trying to make it
work," he said on the sidelines of the forum hosted in Tehran's
cavernous energy ministry, where speaker after speaker hailed the
potential of Iran's vast oil and gas reserves. Total has been poised
to be the first European energy major to put real money into Iran
since sanctions were lifted: a $2 billion deal to help develop South
Pars 11, part of the world's largest gas fields.
SANCTIONS ENFORCEMENT
A judge presiding over a criminal case against a wealthy
Turkish businessman said Thursday he's not sure ex-New York Mayor
Rudy Giuliani can work for the defendant while his law firm
represents Turkey in other matters. U.S. District Judge Richard
Berman in Manhattan asked prosecutors and a defense lawyer to submit
additional information to the court before he decides if Reza Zarrab
can keep his attorneys despite potential conflicts of interest.
Zarrab, who has pleaded not guilty to violating sanctions against
Iran, hired Giuliani and ex-Attorney General Michael Mukasey to work
on a diplomatic solution to the case. Prosecutors say he processed
hundreds of millions of dollars illegally for Iranian businesses or
Iran's government.
TERRORISM
Iranian foreign minister Mohammad Javad Zarif
congratulated Ismail Haniyeh on his election as the head of Hamas
Political Bureau by sending a message. "I hope Haniyeh, with
help of Almighty God and using the experiences of Resistance martyrs,
foil the conspiracies of the enemy," Zarif said in this message.
"I hope you cope with the great responsibility under the special
situation in Palestine and the whole region with help of Almighty God
and using the experiences of Resistance martyrs and foil threats and
the conspiracies of the Zionist enemy and its overt and covert allies
who target the unity of the Islamic world sowing discord and sedition
to destroy the Palestinian cause, and broke the resistance of the
brave sons of the Islamic Ummah," he added.
SAUDI-IRAN TENSIONS
In an upmarket suburb of Senegal's seaside capital, a
branch of Iran's Al-Mustafa University teaches Senegalese students
Shi'ite Muslim theology, among other subjects. The branch director is
Iranian and a portrait of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali
Khamenei hangs on his office wall. The teaching includes Iranian culture
and history, Islamic science and Iran's mother tongue, Farsi;
students receive free food and financial help. The university is a
Shi'ite outpost in a country where Sufism, a more relaxed, mystical
and apolitical form of Sunni Islam, is the norm. Two miles away, the
Islamic Preaching Association for Youth (APIJ) teaches the strand of
Islam that predominates in Iran's great religious, political and
military rival, Saudi Arabia. The APIJ funnels cash from donors in
Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Dubai and Kuwait to mosques run by Salafists -
conservative Sunni Muslims who are sworn enemies of Iran.
HUMAN RIGHTS
Any citizen or candidate who attempts
to disrupt the upcoming elections will receive a "hard slap in
the face," warned Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, in a
recent speech reminiscent of one he gave in June 2009 amidst the
widespread, peaceful protests against the vote count that year.
"If we prepare to confront attempts to create insecurity and
sedition, we could undoubtedly neutralize them," said
Khamenei on May 10, 2017-nine days ahead of the presidential and
local council elections-while addressing cadets of the Islamic
Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) at the Imam Hossein University in
Tehran. Iranian officials have consistently referred to the
widespread, peaceful protests that followed the disputed 2009
presidential election as the "sedition."
A teacher in a port city in northern
Iran has been exiled for singing to his students. Aziz Ghasemzadeh
has been ordered by the Gilan Education Department to move to
Roudbar, 65 miles south of Anzali, for one year, an informed source
told the Center for Human Rights in Iran (CHRI). Ghasemzadeh, the
spokesman for the local teachers' union, has the right to appeal the
decision. In early May 2017, the department decided to punish
Ghasemzadeh after a video was posted on social media showing him
singing a popular love ballad called, "Chera Rafti" (Why
Did You Leave), by singer Homayoun Shajarian, in his art class.
"The students had asked him to sing this very popular poetic
song," the source told CHRI. "There's no regulation against
singing, especially in an art class. But the Gilan Education
Department's Violations Committee ruled that the act of singing
itself is against religious principles and not part of the class curriculum."
DOMESTIC POLITICS
Six candidates racing for the Iranian presidency are
going to face off in the third and final round of nationally
televised debates on Friday evening, only six days before the
election Known as one of the most-watched programs in the
Islamic Republic of Iran Broadcasting history, the debate today will
revolve around the economic issues. During the past two debates, each
of which lasted for more than three hours, the candidates discussed
socio-cultural and political subjects. To be allotted equal minutes
of speaking time each, the candidates are scheduled to explicate
their plans to deal with the country's major economic problems after
taking the office. There are six candidates in the race for the
highest executive post in Iran, including the incumbent president
himself. They have been singled out by the Guardian Council from
among more than 1,600 applicants seeking presidency.
Iran's May 19 election is seen as a referendum on the
policies of President Hassan Rouhani, the moderate cleric who
accepted limits on his nation's nuclear work in exchange for relief
from international sanctions. In seeking re-election, Rouhani, 68,
faces conservative challengers who complain that he's failed to
deliver on promises that the nuclear deal would bring prosperity. But
he got a break when his predecessor, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, was ruled
ineligible to join the race. At stake in the election is whether Iran
will continue integrating with the rest of the world or backtrack
toward isolation.
When Iranians go to the polls to choose a new president
next Friday, all the names on the ballot paper will be male. In the
nearly four-decade history of the Islamic Republic, no woman has been
allowed to stand for the top office. But it's certainly not for want
of trying. This year, 137 women put their names forward. Most famous
by far is Azam Taleghani, a 72-year old former MP and daughter of a
well-known ayatollah. She has registered to stand in most
presidential elections since 1997, determined to challenge the
archaic and ambiguous wording of the Iranian constitution which has
traditionally been interpreted as meaning only men can become
president. Ms Taleghani argues that the criteria can apply to both
men and women and that, as an experienced politician, she is
eminently qualified.
Ever since Iran's 1979 revolution, clerics from the holy
city of Qom - home to the biggest seminary in the Shia world - have
been dispatched across the country to encourage people to vote.
Nearly 40 years ago, these preachers, recognised by their turbans and
flowing robes, were widely credited with helping to secure support
for the new Islamic republic in a referendum. As campaigning
intensifies before next week's presidential poll, the conservative
establishment is hoping they will be able to rally support around
hardline candidates such as Ebrahim Raisi, a cleric and the custodian
of Iran's holiest shrine in the northeastern city of Mashhad, and
Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf, the mayor of Tehran. But in a sign of how
much has changed in recent years in Iran - which under centrist
President Hassan Rouhani signed a nuclear deal with world powers - it
is unclear how much power these clerics still wield.
OPINION & ANALYSIS
What will Iran's May 19 presidential election mean for
the Baha'i, the country's largest non-Muslim religious group? Given
that every candidate was handpicked by Supreme Leader Ayatollah
Khamenei's Guardian Council, the answer is simple: Nothing good. The
Islamic Republic considers the Baha'i faith heretical because it was
founded after the death of the Prophet Muhammad, who is perceived in
Islam as the final prophet. Since its founding 1979, the Iranian regime
has taken this theological assertion to a violent extreme and used it
to intensify persecution of Baha'i believers. Discrimination against
this community, which numbers around 300,000, is codified into
Iranian law. The group is banned from careers in the military and is
often denied other employment since many companies don't want to run
afoul of the authorities. Baha'is cannot legally leave property to
their heirs.
Senior Iranian officials have been heard making strong
comments and threats against its neighbors in the region,
specifically Saudi Arabia and Pakistan. Although being alert is
always advised vis-à-vis the Iranian regime, knowledge regarding the
nature of the mullahs' apparatus reassures us about this being an old
Tehran tactics aimed at maintaining a straight face at hard times,
desperately attempting to preserve the morale of their dwindling
base, and a pitiful attempt to sway international attention from its
domestic crises with a major presidential election just around the
corner. Iran's first such threat came against Saudi Arabia when
Defense Minister Hossein Dehghan threatened the Kingdom soil.
"If the Saudis do anything ignorant, we will leave no area
untouched except Mecca and Medina," Iranian Defense Minister
Hossein Dehghan was quoted by Reuters citing Iran's semi-official
Tasnim news agency.
In any elections, including the ersatz ones held in
Iran, the voter is expected to make his choice on the basis of the
candidates' personality, record and programme. Taking those three
factors into account, how might Iranian voters judge the incumbent,
Hojat al-Islam Hassan Rouhani who is seeking a second term?
Let's start with personality. With the talent of novelist,
Rouhani has re-written his life story to suit the circumstances. In
1970s he was in England trying to learn English and study textile
design. When the clouds of revolution appeared he donned a clerical
garb and cast himself as a student of theology, spending a few weeks
in the "holy" city of Qom. He also changed his family
name from Fereidun, the name of the mythological king who is regarded
as the father of Iranian nationalism, to Rouhani, an Arabic word
which in Persian means both "clerical" and
"spiritual". Knowing that some Iranians like many others in
the so-called "developing world" attach great importance to
academic titles, especially when obtained from Western
establishments, Rouhani shopped around for a "doctorate" in
Europe.
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