|
TOP STORIES
Iran's supreme leader issued a warning on Wednesday,
saying there was a chance that some individuals - he wasn't clear
which - might interfere in Friday's presidential elections. In 2009,
widespread allegations of fraud led to street protests that rocked
the country for six months. In a statement posted on his personal
website, Khamenei.ir, the supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei,
called upon the state institutions that organize the elections to
"be vigilant to protect and secure people's votes."
"Some people might wish to make infringements," he added,
though he did not specify whether he was referring to people in state
institutions. He went on to say: "However, these bodies, be it
supervisory, executive or security-ensuring bodies, thanks God, are
trustworthy and, certainly, should be vigilant."
As
two Iranian soldiers order falafel sandwiches at the Commander diner
in Tehran, Kazem Amini outlines what he sees as the priority ahead of
Friday's presidential election in the Islamic republic. "The
first is security," says Mr Amini, one of the restaurant's
co-owners, standing by a mural depicting some of the hundreds of
thousands who died in Iran's 1980s war with Iraq, the face of current
Quds Force commander Qassem Soleimani looming among the fallen.
"We are a geopolitically important nation, we have to keep our
borders safe." The election coincides with increasing scrutiny
and criticism of Iran from Donald Trump, US president, over its
involvement in Syria, Iraq and Lebanon. Mr Trump, who embarks on his
first tour of the Middle East next week, has already warned Tehran
that it is "on notice".
Up to 55 million Iranians will vote Friday in a
presidential election that pits moderates against religious
conservatives and has economic fallout from the American-backed
nuclear deal at its heart. Iran is far from a complete democracy and
the president is not the most powerful person in the country. That
job falls to 77-year-old Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, an
unelected head of state seen as the guardian of the Islamic republic
and God's emissary on Earth. And not just anyone can become
president. Candidates are being strictly vetted. More than 1,600
people put themselves forward, but Iran's unelected conservative
Islamic Guardian Council whittled the list down to just six. All of
those who made the cut are Shiite Muslim men. No woman has ever been
chosen.
SANCTIONS RELIEF
Iranian state
media says four ATR 72-600s are being delivered, the first
installment of a deal with the French manufacturer to purchase 20
passenger planes following the lifting of sanctions under the 2015
nuclear deal. The IRNA news agency said the first plane landed in
Tehran early Wednesday, with the other three expected later in the day.
The planes were officially given to Iran Air in a ceremony Tuesday in
Toulouse, where ATR is based. Iran Air finalized a deal last month
with ATR for 20 twin-propeller aircraft, with an option to buy 20
more. The planes are worth $536 million at list prices, though
customers usually negotiate discounts Since the nuclear deal, Iran
has signed billion-dollar deals with Boeing and Airbus to replace and
upgrade its aging commercial fleet.
A proposal to extend an OPEC and non-OPEC supply cut for
nine months is a positive idea, sources familiar with Iranian
thinking said, suggesting OPEC's third-largest producer is likely to
go along with such a plan if there is a consensus. Saudi Arabia and Russia,
the world's top two oil producers, agreed on Monday on the need to
extend output cuts for nine months until March 2018 to erode a glut.
That would be longer than the optional six-month extension first
agreed. Kuwait, a Gulf producer usually aligned with the Saudi OPEC
view, said on Tuesday it supported the proposal. The Iranian position
is less predictable, however, as it was the only OPEC member allowed
to increase its output under the supply cut deal and holds
presidential elections on Friday. "This statement shows the
commitment by OPEC and major non-OPEC oil producers to bringing
stability to the oil market, in which is essential to have security
of supply in coming years," said one of the sources.
SAUDI-IRAN TENSIONS
The Saudi mission to the UN accused Iran of
"deception" and of "supporting terrorism and
threatening stability in the region." In a letter to the UN
secretary general and to the president of the UN Security Council,
the mission said Iran violated international law through its
practices and caused war crimes and crimes against humanity. It added
that Iranian armed militias continue to threaten stability in the
region and peace in the world noting that the Iranian regime does not
hide its support of terrorism. The letter described the Iranian
Revolutionary Guards as a tool that exports extremist Iranian
ideology and spreads terrorism in the world by supporting extremist
militias with arms, money and people, such as the case with the
Hezbollah terrorist organization and the sectarian militias in Iraq.
Iran was also accused of continuing to support Houthis in Yemen for
the purpose of occupying the country and threatening neighboring
Saudi Arabia's security.
HUMAN RIGHTS
A week after incumbent President Hassan
Rouhani criticized Iran's hardline judiciary, its spokesman has
announced that dozens of government officials will face possible
prosecution for unspecified election campaign violations. "More
than 60 managers in the government and executive branch, including
those at the city, county and provincial levels of government, have
made election violations and their cases are being processed by
judges and prosecutors," said Gholamhossein Mohseni Ejei on May
16, 2017-three days before the vote for president and local councils.
"There has been a very high number of election violations,"
claimed Ejei. "Government officials should be careful not to do
anything out of the ordinary against the law."
DOMESTIC POLITICS
Iran's more historically reliable opinion polls indicate
President Hassan Rouhani is likely to win his bid for re-election on
Friday. Yet his conservative challengers have put up a stronger fight
than many expected, attacking his government's economic record and
accusing him of failing to improve living standards for the poor. If
there is to be an upset -- Rouhani would be the first president in
the 38-year history of the Islamic Republic not to win when seeking a
second term -- the following charts illustrate some potential
causes.Rouhani's supporters are worried about voters staying home on
election day. The president is a pragmatic regime stalwart, and a
victory will hinge on persuading enough Iranian liberals, known as
reformists, to back him.
Iran's top leader has called for high turnout in
Friday's presidential election, urging voters to send a message to
the United States. In a televised speech Wednesday, Supreme Leader
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said the United States and its allies,
including the "pathetic prime minister of the Zionist
regime," or Israel, are closely watching the vote. President
Hassan Rouhani, a moderate, is seeking re-election in a vote that
will largely serve as a referendum on his outreach to the West, which
culminated in the 2015 nuclear deal.
Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has criticized
as "unworthy" the hostile exchanges between rival
candidates in Friday's presidential election, but said a high turnout
would mitigate the impact of any lasting animosity. Rivals have
been trading accusations of corruption and brutality in debates and
speeches aired on live television and the campaign has been the most
bad-tempered in the near 40-year history of the Islamic Republic.
"In the election debates, some remarks were made that were
unworthy of the Iranian nation. But the (wide) participation of the
people will erase all of that," Khamenei told an audience on
Wednesday, according to his own website.
More than 60 "violations" linked to Friday's
presidential and regional elections in Iran have occurred and two
people have been arrested, the judiciary said, at a time of mounting
tension between moderate and hardline factions. President Hassan
Rouhani remains the narrow favorite for a second term thanks to
Iran's re-engagement with the world after the lifting of sanctions,
but has been hammered by hardline foes over his failure to rehabilitate
the economy. Judiciary spokesman Gholamhossein Mohseni Ejei said
Tuesday the electoral infractions were committed by "governors,
county chiefs, district chiefs and the heads of government
offices", according to judiciary news site Mizan. Mohseni Ejei
said the two arrests arose from an attempt by an election candidate's
campaign office to steal documents pertaining to a rival.
A reformist candidate dropped out of Iran's presidential
election on Tuesday and threw his support behind President Hassan
Rouhani, in a widely expected move that will strengthen the
incumbent's campaign against a hard-liner. Eshaq Jahangiri, senior
vice president under Rouhani, dropped out, leaving just four
candidates in the race. "I will dedicate all my abilities to
support Rouhani" in Friday's election, Jahangiri said in a
statement. Rouhani also has the support of former President Mohammad
Khatami, another reformist, who endorsed him on Sunday.
The first picture shows a crowd of thousands packed into
a central square in the city of Isfahan this week for a speech by
hardline cleric Ebrahim Raisi, the top challenger to President Hassan
Rouhani in Friday's Iranian presidential election. Immediately below
is another picture of the same square, with a smaller crowd who had
come out the previous day to see Rouhani, with red arrows pointing
out the empty areas. The contrasting photos have been posted on
hardline social media sites and viewed by tens of thousands of
people. Reuters cannot verify whether they give an accurate view of
the true size of the crowds at the rival events. But they provide a
fine example of how hardliners have caught up with reformers in using
social media to spread their message. With the Iranian presidential
election only days away, both sides have launched a social media
free-for-all unprecedented in Iranian political history.
OPINION & ANALYSIS
On May 19, Iran goes to the polls to select a new
president. So far the campaign has been dominated by the economy.
Unemployment is high, and oil prices are low. The lifting of
sanctions following Tehran's nuclear agreement with the West has yet
to yield benefits. Yet the effect of sanctions - or whether the next
president is a hard-liner or a relative moderate - is secondary to
the largest long-term threat to Iran's stability. Due to gross water
mismanagement and its ruinous impact on the country, Iran faces the
worst water future of any industrialized nation. After the fall of
the shah in 1979, water policy became a victim of bad governance and
corruption, putting the country on what may be an irreversible path
to environmental doom and disruption that owes nothing to sanctions
or years of war with its neighbors.
In Washington there is a consensus that the re-election
of Iranian President Hassan Rouhani is in the best interests of the
U.S. Most find the self-avowed pragmatic cleric, who championed the
2015 nuclear deal, a less menacing choice than his
"hard-line" opponent Ebrahim Raisi, who is rumored to be
the preferred candidate of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. But
a victory for Mr. Rouhani, who appears destined to win unless Mr.
Khamenei rigs the election in Mr. Raisi's favor, would be the worst
possible outcome. Better than anyone, Mr. Rouhani can align Iran's
factions on major foreign-policy questions. Put another way, he is uniquely
capable of fortifying the theocracy.
Presidential elections in Iran raise a puzzling
contradiction: How can the government include both an unelected
supreme leader and a president who is chosen in votes that are
treated as serious contests? Put another way, is Iran a democracy or
a dictatorship? Citizens elect the president, as they will on Friday,
as well as members of a legislature. But they are overseen by
institutions staffed by clerics. One, known as the Guardian Council,
approves all candidates for office, narrowing the scope of elections.
Still other unelected bodies, like the Revolutionary Guards, wield
tremendous power. The supreme leader, who holds the position for
life, is the most important figure, overseeing everything.
|
Posts
No comments:
Post a Comment